Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Prediction: Home win 39% (31 Oct 2026)

Premier League31 October 2026Gtech Community Stadium, London10°0,1 mm13 km/h

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BrentfordCounter-attacks & crosses

Nottingham ForestLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Brentford (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Nottingham Forest @ 3.70 (+25 %)

1 · Brentford 39%X 27%34% Nottingham Forest · 2

39%

27%

34%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Brentford vs Nottingham Forest (Premier League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Brentford win 39%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Brentford 1.46, Nottingham Forest 1.41. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Brentford or draw 66%, Nottingham Forest or draw 61%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Brentford – Nottingham Forest

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Brentford and Nottingham Forest reveals a curious imbalance: in their four matchups since 2022, Forest have claimed victory three times. However, a sample of just four games offers limited predictive power, especially when contrasted with current form. Brentford are on a solid streak, having found the net in nine straight Premier League fixtures, while Forest are reeling from three consecutive losses.

The model's probabilities give a slight nod to the hosts, with a 39% chance of winning compared to Forest's 34%. Expected goals are nearly neck and neck at 1.46 for Brentford and 1.41 for Forest, pointing to a tightly contested match. Yet the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at 12%, suggesting a scenario where neither side dominates. With a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals, the slight lean is towards goals, but the looming rain of 12.0 mm could dampen scoring opportunities, a factor already considered in the analytics.

Brentford's playstyle of counter-attacks and crosses could be both a weapon and a liability against Forest's low defensive block and direct approach. The Bees will need to break down a resilient visiting defence while guarding against quick transitions. Despite the small head-to-head sample favouring Forest, the home side's recent scoring form offers reasons for optimism.

From a betting perspective, the standout angle is on the visitors. LeoVegas offers Forest at odds of 3.45, which presents significant value given the model's 34% win probability for them. This translates into a 16% edge, marking it as an excellent opportunity for those looking to capitalize on a market oversight. Betting on Forest in this fixture is not a guarantee, but it's where the smart money should be.

Brentford

Form DDWDL

League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #2xP/match #6Points #6

Key players

Nathan CollinsCBxG 0.26 · xT 0.08
Vitaly JaneltCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.07
Igor ThiagoFxG 0.46 · xT 0.05

Nottingham Forest

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #3xP/match #4Points #19

Key players

James McAteeCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.11
Ousmane DiomandeCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Daniel MunozRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.24

Match prediction: Brentford – Nottingham Forest

Predicted score matrix

Nottingham Forest →

Brentford →

0–06.0%

0–17.6%

0–25.6%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.9%

1–112.0%

1–28.2%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.1%

2–18.5%

2–26.0%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.4%

3–03.0%

3–14.2%

3–22.9%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,46–1,41

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@2.13

Over 2,555%

@1.73

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Brentford or draw (1X)64%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Brentford or draw (1X)64%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Callum Eddie Graham Wilson to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Callum Eddie Graham Wilson to score24%
Xaver Schlager to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Nottingham Forest34% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
2 · Nottingham Forest34% probability@3.65BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
2 · Nottingham Forest34% probability@3.50LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brentford	X	2 · Nottingham Forest
Betsafe	1.92	EV+ 4% 3.80	EV+ 23% 3.65
LeoVegas	2.00	3.60	EV+ 18% 3.50
Nordicbet	1.92	EV+ 4% 3.80	EV+ 25% 3.70

Odds updated 24 Oct, 18:38

Odds movement

1-2 %

49 %44 %

2.05 → 2.00

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.55 → 3.60

2+1 %

30 %25 %

3.45 → 3.50

Over 2,5+1 %

57 %52 %

1.68 → 1.70

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Brentford 1Draw 0Nottingham Forest 3

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Brentford have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Nottingham Forest have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brentford

Nottingham Forest

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brentford (13–8)

Nottingham Forest (5–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brentford

Nottingham Forest

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brentford

Nottingham Forest

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brentford	Nottingham Forest
Points	10	5
xPoints	10.8	11.5
xG per match	1.8	1.7
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.52	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.11

Playing style	Brentford	Nottingham Forest
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.32
Field tilt	0.39	0.49
xT per match	1.3	1.2
xTA per match	0.9	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	29	24
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.21
Entries into the box per match	15	15
Entries into the box against	15	12
Pass completion %	0.7	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.69
Passes per match	278	303
Passes against per match	367	375
Switches of play per match	17.3	26.7
Long balls per match	27	34

Set pieces	Brentford	Nottingham Forest
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.04
Corners per match	3.8	4.7
Corners against per match	5	4.9
xG per corner	0.09	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.59	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.44

Other	Brentford	Nottingham Forest
Throw-in control	0.67	0.78

The goalkeepers	Caoimhin Kelleher (Brentford)	Matz Sels (Nottingham Forest)
Saves	25	15
Save %	76%	63%
xG prevented	48%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brentford

Fixtures, form & tips

Nottingham Forest

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brentford vs Nottingham Forest according to our model?

The model gives Brentford a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brentford 39%, draw 27%, Nottingham Forest 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?

The model expects 1.46 goals (xG) for Brentford and 1.41 for Nottingham Forest, 2.87 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Brentford or draw (1X) 66%, Nottingham Forest or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.