Hull City vs Ipswich Town Prediction: Home win 35% (31 Oct 2026)

Premier League31 October 2026MKM Stadium, Hull9°12 km/h

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Hull CityLow block & direct

Ipswich TownLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Hull City (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.01 (+16 %)

1 · Hull City 35%X 31%34% Ipswich Town · 2

35%

31%

34%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hull City vs Ipswich Town (Premier League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Hull City win 35%, draw 31%, Ipswich Town win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Hull City 1.22, Ipswich Town 1.25. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Hull City or draw 66%, Ipswich Town or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Hull City – Ipswich Town

Marcus Johansson · 23 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Hull City's slim edge in model probabilities and xPoints creates tension in their Premier League matchup against Ipswich Town. Both teams favor a low defensive line and direct play, suggesting a tightly contested affair. Despite Hull City having a slight advantage in potential points (xPoints: Hull 10.0 vs Ipswich 8.5), the model leans marginally towards them with a 35% win probability compared to Ipswich's 34%. The numbers suggest a narrow, gritty battle.

The expected goals (xG) figures paint a slightly different picture. Ipswich holds a minor edge in offensive contributions with an xG of 1.1 per match against Hull’s 0.9. However, the defensive metrics tilt towards Hull, with the Tigers allowing fewer expected goals against per match (1.4 vs Ipswich's 1.8). This defensive resilience may prove crucial, especially considering the expected wet conditions, which could suppress goal-scoring opportunities further.

Both sides' propensity for direct play indicates a fast-paced game, yet the probability of a 1-1 draw remains the highest at 13%. The even distribution of likely outcomes—1-0 to either side—hints at a match that could swing on a single moment. The model's lean towards a low-scoring encounter is significant, with the under 2.5 goals market showing a 9% edge at odds of 1.98 with LeoVegas. This aligns with the weather-induced potential for a cagey affair, supporting the case for fewer goals.

The value in the unders market is compelling across different lines. The under 1.5 goals at 3.8 offers a tempting 10% edge, though it requires a brave punter. More conservatively, the under 2.5 goals provides the best balance of risk and reward. The sharpest play for this matchup lies in betting against goals, capitalizing on the value presented by LeoVegas, especially given the tactical setups and weather impact.

Hull City

Form DDLDL

League ranking xG #20xGA #9xT #19xP/match #11Points #9

Key players

Mohamed BelloumiRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.05
Oli McBurnieFxG 0.19 · xT 0.01
Regan SlaterCAMxG 0.04 · xT -0.01

Ipswich Town

Form LWLWL

League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #12xP/match #15Points #10

Key players

EmersonnFxG 0.31 · xT 0.06
Saša LukićCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Leif DavisLWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Hull City – Ipswich Town

Predicted score matrix

Ipswich Town →

Hull City →

0–08.8%

0–110.2%

0–26.6%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.9%

1–113.3%

1–28.1%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.3%

2–17.9%

2–24.9%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.6%

3–13.2%

3–22.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,22–1,25

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@2.04EV+12%

Over 2,545%

@1.79

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hull City or draw (1X)63%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hull City or draw (1X)63%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Oliver Robert McBurnie to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Emersonn Correia da Silva to score24%
Regan Newman Slater to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.529% probability@4.01BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
Under 1.529% probability@4.01NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
Under 2.555% probability@2.04BetsafeEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hull City	X	2 · Ipswich Town
Betsafe	2.62	EV+ 5% 3.40	2.62
LeoVegas	2.60	EV+ 5% 3.40	2.60
Nordicbet	2.62	EV+ 5% 3.40	2.62

Odds updated 25 Oct, 10:37

Odds movement

10 %

39 %34 %

2.60 → 2.60

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.40

2-2 %

38 %33 %

2.65 → 2.60

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.75 → 1.75

LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hull City

Ipswich Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hull City (8–7)

Ipswich Town (11–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hull City

Ipswich Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hull City

Ipswich Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hull City	Ipswich Town
Points	9	9
xPoints	10	8.5
xG per match	0.9	1.1
xGA per match	1.4	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.28

Playing style	Hull City	Ipswich Town
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.24	0.37
xT per match	0.62	0.89
xTA per match	1.4	0.92
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.2
Entries into the box per match	10	8
Entries into the box against	18	14
Pass completion %	0.66	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.73
Passes per match	205	334
Passes against per match	552	468
Switches of play per match	22.3	17.2
Long balls per match	30	27

Set pieces	Hull City	Ipswich Town
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.05
Corners per match	3.7	3.3
Corners against per match	6.6	4.7
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.61

Other	Hull City	Ipswich Town
Throw-in control	0.73	0.7

The goalkeepers	Konstantinos Tzolakis (Hull City)	Kjell Scherpen (Ipswich Town)
Saves	29	16
Save %	81%	64%
xG prevented	83%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hull City

Fixtures, form & tips

Ipswich Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hull City vs Ipswich Town according to our model?

The model gives Hull City a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hull City 35%, draw 31%, Ipswich Town 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Hull City vs Ipswich Town?

The model expects 1.22 goals (xG) for Hull City and 1.25 for Ipswich Town, 2.47 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Hull City or draw (1X) 66%, Ipswich Town or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.