Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia: Prediction & Odds (15 Oct 2026)

Europa League15 October 20269°0,9 mm12 km/h

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Jagiellonia BiałystokLow block & direct

3–1

Ararat-ArmeniaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Jagiellonia Białystok (54%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ararat-Armenia @ 7.40 (+97 %)

1 · Jagiellonia Białystok 54%X 20%27% Ararat-Armenia · 2

54%

20%

27%

Prediction summary

Final score 3–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia (Europa League, Thursday, 15 October 2026): Jagiellonia Białystok win 54%, draw 20%, Ararat-Armenia win 27%. Expected goals (xG): Jagiellonia Białystok 1.97, Ararat-Armenia 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Jagiellonia Białystok or draw 73%, Ararat-Armenia or draw 46%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 7 October 2026.

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Analysis: Jagiellonia Białystok – Ararat-Armenia

Oscar Nilsson · 13 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Jagiellonia Białystok and FC Ararat-Armenia clash with a small head-to-head sample, which means the focus shifts to current form and expected goals. Białystok is the model's slight favorite with a 54% chance of winning, but Ararat's balanced and physical style has its merits, reflected in a solid 27% win probability. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 2-1, suggest a close game, though the home side's 2-0 possibility hints at their capacity to keep a clean sheet.

Form-wise, Ararat holds a subtle edge in expected points and goals per match. Jagiellonia's style is direct but defensively frail, as shown by their 2.6 expected goals against per match compared to Ararat's 2.1. Despite this, Białystok's ability to generate 0.44 xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball is a notable offensive weapon, contrasting sharply with Ararat's zero in this metric. The hosts' quick-strike potential can be decisive, especially against a team that lacks similar explosiveness.

A high-scoring encounter is likely; a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% for both teams to score align with both teams' profiles. However, the model also sees significant value in more audacious bets. The away win at odds of 7.4 with Betsafe and Nordicbet presents a staggering 97% edge according to the model, making it a tempting option for punters looking for a high-risk, high-reward scenario. Likewise, the over 4.5 goals bet at odds of 4.53 with Betsafe also carries an attractive 11% edge.

While Jagiellonia is favored, the gaps in their defense combined with Ararat's physical approach could lead to a surprise. A 2-1 triumph for the hosts seems plausible, but the value lies elsewhere. Taking the plunge on Ararat to win, given the edge at those odds, could reward those willing to look beyond the apparent.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Form LLWL

League ranking xG #37xGA #50xT #43xP/match #38Points #17

Key players

Taras RomanczukCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
Bernardo VitalCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaLBxG 0.13 · xT 0.23
Numbers from Ekstraklasa 2026

Ararat-Armenia

Form WL

League ranking xG #34xGA #45xT #51xP/match #23Points #14

Key players

Tenton YenneCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.14
AlemãoRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
Cássio ScheidCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Numbers from UEFA Conference League 2023

Final score

3 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Jagiellonia Białystok 54% · Draw 20% · Ararat-Armenia 27%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FC Ararat-ArmeniaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 22,73fair 10,42+118 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Jagiellonia BialystokBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,02fair 5,01-20 %

Hit

Match prediction: Jagiellonia Białystok – Ararat-Armenia

Predicted score matrix

Ararat-Armenia →

Jagiellonia Białystok →

0–03.8%

0–14.6%

0–23.3%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.7%

1–06.7%

1–19.9%

1–26.6%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.9%

2–19.4%

2–26.5%

2–32.9%

2–4+1.4%

3–04.5%

3–16.2%

3–24.2%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.9%

4+–03.5%

4+–14.8%

4+–23.3%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.2-07%
4.1-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,97–1,37

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

@2.39

Over 2,565%

@1.58EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Jagiellonia Białystok to win54%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Jagiellonia Białystok to win54%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Kajetan Szmyt to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Kajetan Szmyt to score22%
Karen Muradyan to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ararat-Armenia27% probability@7.40BetsafeEV+97%reference odds
2 · Ararat-Armenia27% probability@7.40NordicbetEV+97%reference odds
2 · Ararat-Armenia27% probability@7.34PinnacleEV+95%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Jagiellonia Białystok	X	2 · Ararat-Armenia
Betsafe	1.41	4.80	EV+ 97% 7.40
Nordicbet	1.41	4.80	EV+ 97% 7.40
Pinnacle	1.41	EV+ 1% 5.10	EV+ 95% 7.34

Odds updated 15 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

70 %65 %

1.39 → 1.41

X+3 %

21 %16 %

4.93 → 5.10

2+3 %

16 %11 %

7.10 → 7.34

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/10/2026 → 15/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Jagiellonia Białystok

Ararat-Armenia

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jagiellonia Białystok (3–3)

Ararat-Armenia (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Ararat-Armenia

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jagiellonia Białystok

Ararat-Armenia

The teams in numbers

Performance	Jagiellonia Białystok	Ararat-Armenia
Points	3	3
xPoints	2	2.9
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	2.6	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.44	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	1.1	0.07

Playing style	Jagiellonia Białystok	Ararat-Armenia
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.26
Field tilt	0.32	0.41
xT per match	0.71	0.51
xTA per match	1.3	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	15	14
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.2	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.13	0.12
Entries into the box per match	8	5
Entries into the box against	18	14
Pass completion %	0.74	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.73
Passes per match	275	352
Passes against per match	458	425
Switches of play per match	22.7	23.1
Long balls per match	24	27

Set pieces	Jagiellonia Białystok	Ararat-Armenia
xG from free kicks	0.09	0
Corners per match	2.1	2.5
Corners against per match	9.8	9.8
xG per corner	0	0.13
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.25	0.8
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.5

Other	Jagiellonia Białystok	Ararat-Armenia
Throw-in control	0.55	0.69

The goalkeepers	Slawomir Abramowicz (Jagiellonia Białystok)	João Victor Donna Bravim (Ararat-Armenia)
Saves	7	10
Save %	70%	71%
xG prevented	40%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Jagiellonia Białystok

Fixtures, form & tips

Ararat-Armenia

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia according to our model?

The model gives Jagiellonia Białystok a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jagiellonia Białystok 54%, draw 20%, Ararat-Armenia 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat-Armenia?

The model expects 1.97 goals (xG) for Jagiellonia Białystok and 1.37 for Ararat-Armenia, 3.34 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (1X) 73%, Ararat-Armenia or draw (X2) 46% and no draw (12) 80%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.