Brest vs Angers Prediction: Home win 56% (10 Oct 2026)

Ligue 110 October 2026Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest14°1,8 mm21 km/h

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BrestPossession control

AngersBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Brest (56%)

1 · Brest 56%X 25%18% Angers · 2

56%

25%

18%

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Analysis: Brest – Angers

Anna Karlsson · 2 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Brest enters the match against Angers with a distinct advantage: a 56% probability of winning according to the model. This edge is reflected in their expected goals, which stand at 1.88 compared to Angers' 1.02. While Brest has only managed to secure five points to Angers' seven this season, the underlying numbers tell a different story. The hosts boast an xPoints of 8.7 against Angers' 6.6, and this suggests that Brest has been a bit unlucky not to have more points on the board.

A small sample of head-to-head encounters since 2022 shows Brest with a slight upper hand, winning two out of four matches. However, these past meetings weigh less than the current form and expected goals figures. Brest's typical possession control style is likely to be a key factor, especially against Angers' balanced and physical approach, which could struggle in the wet conditions forecasted for the match. The rain could act as an equalizer, affecting the precision of both teams' play, but the model already accounts for this in its evaluation.

Given the model's probabilities and expected goals, a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory for Brest looks most likely. The expectation of over 2.5 goals sits at 55%, yet the anticipated weather might dampen scoring a bit, pointing to a game where defenses could prevail. Despite the close likelihood of both teams scoring (54%), the balance tips slightly towards a lower-scoring affair.

The most compelling betting angle lies in Brest's favor, especially with LeoVegas offering home odds at 1.92, presenting an attractive value bet with an 8% edge. With their statistical edge and a favorable model prediction, backing Brest seems the prudent choice for those seeking value in this encounter.

Brest

Form DDWLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #14xP/match #3Points #12

Key players

Ludovic AjorqueFxG 0.33 · xT 0.06
Romain Del CastilloRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
Pathé MboupLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.11

Angers

Form LWLDW

League ranking xG #9xGA #10xT #8xP/match #11Points #7

Key players

Mohamed Amine SbaïLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.36
Branco van den BoomenCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Amine El OuazzaniFxG 0.25 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Brest – Angers

Predicted score matrix

Angers →

Brest →

0–05.8%

0–15.3%

0–22.8%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.1%

1–110.8%

1–25.4%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.8%

2–19.9%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–06.1%

3–16.2%

3–23.2%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–04.4%

4+–14.5%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,88–1,02

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.10

Over 2,555%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Brest to win56%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Brest to win56%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Ludovic Ajorque to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Ludovic Ajorque to score33%
Yassine Belkhdim to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Brest56% probability@1.98LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
1 · Brest56% probability@1.95BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
1 · Brest56% probability@1.95NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brest	X	2 · Angers
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 1.95	3.60	3.65
LeoVegas	EV+ 12% 1.98	3.60	3.65
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 1.95	3.60	3.65

Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

51 %46 %

1.92 → 1.98

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.65 → 3.60

2-3 %

28 %23 %

3.75 → 3.65

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.73 → 1.73

LeoVegas · 8 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Brest 2Draw 1Angers 1

Goals: 5–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brest

Angers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brest (7–8)

Angers (6–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brest

Angers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brest

Angers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brest	Angers
Points	5	7
xPoints	8.7	6.6
xG per match	1.9	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.63

Playing style	Brest	Angers
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.4	0.42
xT per match	0.93	1.1
xTA per match	0.81	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	35	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.15
Entries into the box per match	13	12
Entries into the box against	13	17
Pass completion %	0.74	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.71
Passes per match	331	367
Passes against per match	394	358
Switches of play per match	31.9	37.1
Long balls per match	42	42

Set pieces	Brest	Angers
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.02
Corners per match	5.5	7.5
Corners against per match	3.6	6.1
xG per corner	0.07	0.03
xGA per corner against	0	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.61

Other	Brest	Angers
Throw-in control	0.66	0.66

The goalkeepers	Egil Selvik (Brest)	Anthony Lopes (Angers)
Saves	15	25
Save %	68%	86%
xG prevented	34%	83%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brest

Fixtures, form & tips

Angers

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brest vs Angers according to our model?

The model gives Brest a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brest 56%, draw 25%, Angers 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.