01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lens or draw (1X)66%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Ligue 1Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens11°6,9 mm26 km/h
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LensBalanced & physicalvs
LyonPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Lens (41%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 19.00 (+30 %)
Lens vs Lyon · Ligue 1
1 · Lens 41%X 29%30% Lyon · 2
41%
29%
30%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Lens – Lyon
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Lens have a 41% chance to win against Lyon, according to the model, yet their all-time 61% home win rate in 36 matches suggests a strong fortress. On paper, Lyon's recent unbeaten run of five games makes them a tough nut to crack. While Lens edge ahead in expected goals per match with 1.9 compared to Lyon's 1.7, Lyon's defensive solidity comes into play, conceding just 0.97 xGA per match against Lens' 1.5. The clash of styles—balanced and physical Lens against possession-oriented Lyon—adds intrigue.
Predicting a tight game, the model's most likely outcomes are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, each with 9% or more probability. The expected goals total, 2.73 combined, aligns closely with the over 2.5 goals probability at 52%. However, the forecast of rain might dampen the attacking flow, a factor already integrated into the model's edge on the under 2.5 goals market, priced at 2.35 with LeoVegas (14% value edge).
The small head-to-head sample since 2022, with Lens leading 2-1 in wins, weighs less than current form and stats. Betting value shines in the potential for a draw, offered at 3.7 with LeoVegas—a viable 8% edge on the model's 29% probability. Keep an eye on that angle for a balanced matchup.
LensForm WLLDL
League ranking xG #2xGA #9xT #2xP/match #7Points #15
Key players
- Florian Tristán Mariano ThauvinRWxG 0.62 · xT 0.30
- Ruben AguilarRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.24
- Matthieu UdolLWBxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
LyonForm WDWDW
League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #11xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Corentin TolissoLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.19
- Ernest NuamahRWxG 0.59 · xT 0.06
- Lois OpendaLWxG 0.62 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Lens – Lyon
Predicted score matrix
Lyon →
Lens →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.8%
0–18.2%
0–25.6%
0–32.4%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–08.9%
1–112.5%
1–28.0%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.6%
2–18.6%
2–25.7%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.1%
3–22.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,42–1,31
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,548%
@2.52EV+22%
Over 2,552%
@1.54
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lens or draw (1X)66%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Michaël Bruno Dominique Cuisance to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Michaël Bruno Dominique Cuisance to score24%
- Felix Bacher to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.57% probability@19.00BetsafeEV+30%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@19.00NordicbetEV+30%reference odds
- Under 2.548% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lens | X | 2 · Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 2.45 | EV+ 5% 3.60 | 2.65 |
| LeoVegas | 2.40 | EV+ 8% 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 2.45 | EV+ 5% 3.60 | 2.65 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Lyon win since 2 October — the odds have shortened from 2.95 to 2.70 (−8%).
1+9 %
44 %39 %
2.20 → 2.40
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.70 → 3.70
2-8 %
36 %31 %
2.95 → 2.70
Over 2,50 %
63 %58 %
1.53 → 1.53
LeoVegas · 14 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLens 2Draw 1Lyon 1
Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Lyon are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
- Lens win 61% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lens
Lyon
Lens (9–9)
Lyon (10–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lens
Lyon
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lens
Lyon
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lens | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 11 |
| xPoints | 7.1 | 9.1 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 0.97 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Lens | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 0.95 | 0.81 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 421 | 410 |
| Passes against per match | 400 | 375 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.4 | 38.4 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Lens | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 6.9 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| Other | Lens | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Robin Risser (Lens) | Dominik Greif (Lyon) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 13 |
| Save % | 68% | 87% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 66% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lens vs Lyon according to our model?
The model gives Lens a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lens 41%, draw 29%, Lyon 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.