Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction: Home win 53% (10 Oct 2026)

Ligue 110 October 2026Stade Louis II, Monaco19°11 km/h

Läs på svenska

MonacoLow block & direct

ToulousePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Monaco (53%)Best value by the model: 2 · Toulouse @ 5.30 (+17 %)

1 · Monaco 53%X 25%22% Toulouse · 2

53%

25%

22%

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Monaco – Toulouse

Marcus Johansson · 2 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Monaco's low-defensive, direct approach contrasts sharply with Toulouse's possession-heavy style, setting the stage for an intriguing tactical battle. The hosts are riding a wave of momentum, unbeaten in their last five league outings, while the visitors have struggled to make their mark with only five points so far this season. Despite Monaco's superior position in the standings, the model's projected goals for this match suggest a comfortable edge for the hosts: Monaco at 1.93 expected goals compared to Toulouse's 1.14.

The head-to-head record is small, with just four games since 2022, which saw Monaco unbeaten with two wins and two draws. However, Toulouse's ability to control possession could disrupt Monaco's direct play, potentially leveling the playing field. At home, the hosts boast an impressive 67% win rate across 36 matches, reinforcing their favourites' tag in this clash. Monaco also hold a slight edge defensively, with an xGA of 1.4 per match compared to Toulouse's 1.6.

With a model probability of 53%, Monaco are favourites, yet the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 at 10% each indicate a competitive match. Both teams to score stands at 59%, further underscoring the likelihood of an engaging affair. The model suggests a slight edge towards Monaco with a potential 2-1 victory, pointing towards a game where over 2.5 goals (59%) is a reasonable lean.

For those seeking value, LeoVegas offers odds of 4.6 on a Toulouse win, which, while unlikely, carries a 2% edge over the model's probability. Alternatively, a draw at 4.0 holds no edge but aligns with the model's 25% chance, providing another angle for those hoping for a less predictable outcome.

Monaco

Form WWWDW

League ranking xG #16xGA #6xT #15xP/match #9Points #1

Key players

Paris BrunnerFxG 0.57 · xT 0.01
Matthis AblineFxG 0.31 · xT 0.18
Lamine CamaraCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.01

Toulouse

Form LDLDW

League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #6xP/match #6Points #13

Key players

Casper TengstedtFxG 1.32 · xT 0.09
Ilyas AziziFxG 0.18 · xT 0.06
Jacen Rex Orlando Russell-RoweFxG 0.45 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Monaco – Toulouse

Predicted score matrix

Toulouse →

Monaco →

0–04.9%

0–15.0%

0–23.0%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.4%

1–08.6%

1–110.5%

1–25.8%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.6%

2–19.9%

2–25.6%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.6%

3–16.4%

3–23.6%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–04.2%

4+–14.8%

4+–22.7%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,93–1,14

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.31

Over 2,559%

@1.63

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Monaco to win53%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Monaco to win53%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Paris Josua Brunner to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Paris Josua Brunner to score35%
Niklas Uwe Schmidt to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Toulouse22% probability@5.30BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
2 · Toulouse22% probability@5.30NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
2 · Toulouse22% probability@4.90LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Monaco	X	2 · Toulouse
Betsafe	1.60	EV+ 0% 4.00	EV+ 17% 5.30
LeoVegas	1.61	EV+ 5% 4.20	EV+ 8% 4.90
Nordicbet	1.60	EV+ 0% 4.00	EV+ 17% 5.30

Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

60 %55 %

1.68 → 1.61

X+5 %

25 %20 %

4.00 → 4.20

2+7 %

23 %18 %

4.60 → 4.90

Over 2,5-1 %

61 %56 %

1.60 → 1.58

LeoVegas · 12 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Monaco 2Draw 2Toulouse 0

Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

Key facts

Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Monaco win 67% of their home matches all-time (36 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Monaco

Toulouse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Monaco (8–3)

Toulouse (7–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Monaco

Toulouse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Monaco

Toulouse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Monaco	Toulouse
Points	13	5
xPoints	6.9	7.2
xG per match	1.2	1.8
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.38

Playing style	Monaco	Toulouse
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.37	0.58
xT per match	0.8	1.1
xTA per match	0.96	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	28	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.23
Entries into the box per match	11	15
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.81	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.74
Passes per match	385	440
Passes against per match	483	389
Switches of play per match	23.3	27.2
Long balls per match	32	31

Set pieces	Monaco	Toulouse
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	3.6	4.7
Corners against per match	6	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.77
First touch, defensive corners %	0.77	0.76

Other	Monaco	Toulouse
Throw-in control	0.73	0.8

The goalkeepers	Lukas Hradecky (Monaco)	Guillaume Restes (Toulouse)
Saves	19	14
Save %	91%	70%
xG prevented	71%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Monaco

Fixtures, form & tips

Toulouse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Monaco vs Toulouse according to our model?

The model gives Monaco a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monaco 53%, draw 25%, Toulouse 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.