01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Paris Saint-Germain to win82%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Ligue 1Parc des Princes, Paris15°5,4 mm17 km/h
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Paris Saint-GermainPossession & high pressvs
Le MansPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Paris Saint-Germain (82%)Best value by the model: 2 · Le Mans @ 23.00 (+38 %)
Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Mans · Ligue 1
1 · Paris Saint-Germain 82%X 12%6% Le Mans · 2
82%
12%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Paris Saint-Germain hold an imposing 82% probability of winning against Le Mans, a reflection of their dominant home form. The hosts have scored in 25 straight league matches, underscoring their attacking prowess with an expected goals figure of 2.80 per match. Le Mans, on the other hand, offer a modest xG of 0.78, suggesting limited offensive threat. Despite the high likelihood of a home victory, there's an intriguing edge in the under 3.5 goals market, priced at 2.4 with LeoVegas, where a 25% edge appears against the model's assessment of 52%.
The expected goal difference is stark, favoring Paris heavily, yet the visitors do have a spark of hope in an unpredictable match. While Le Mans' chances are a mere 6%, the draw carries a 12% probability, and LeoVegas offers value at odds of 12.0. This small chance of a stalemate could intrigue those seeking higher rewards. The 13.9°C weather with 3.3 mm of rain also hints at a possible dampening of offensive fireworks, a factor already accounted for in the odds.
For those eyeing the upset, Le Mans priced at 23.0 with LeoVegas could yield considerable returns, though the model rates their chances at only 6%. Ultimately, Paris should comfortably secure a 2-0 or 3-0 win, but the under 3.5 goals bet stands out as the sharpest angle here.
Paris Saint-GermainForm DDLWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #1xP/match #4Points #6
Key players
- Achraf HakimiRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
- Ousmane DembeleFxG 0.48 · xT 0.32
- Joao NevesCAMxG 0.35 · xT -0.09
Le MansForm DLDDW
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #17xP/match #10Points #11
Key players
- Adil Ali Mohamed BourabaaFxG 0.25 · xT 0.04
- Louis Didace MafoutaFxG 0.48 · xT 0.09
- Dame GuèyeFxG 0.33 · xT -0.01
Match prediction: Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans
Predicted score matrix
Le Mans →
Paris Saint-Germain →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.0%
0–12.0%
0–20.9%
0–30.2%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–07.6%
1–16.3%
1–22.4%
1–30.6%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–010.9%
2–18.5%
2–23.3%
2–30.9%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–010.2%
3–18.0%
3–23.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–014.0%
4+–111.0%
4+–24.3%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.3-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.3-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
2,80–0,78
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,60
110%
218%
321%
419%
5+29%
Under 2,531%
@4.10EV+26%
Over 2,569%
@1.21
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Paris Saint-Germain to win82%
- Over 2.5 goals69%
- Ferran Torres García to score43%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals69%
- Ferran Torres García to score43%
- Harold Voyer to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Le Mans6% probability@23.00LeoVegasEV+38%reference odds
- X · Draw12% probability@11.00LeoVegasEV+33%reference odds
- Under 2.531% probability@4.10LeoVegasEV+26%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Paris Saint-Germain | X | 2 · Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.08 | EV+ 33% 11.00 | EV+ 38% 23.00 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 2 October — the odds have shortened from 12.00 to 11.00 (−8%).
1+1 %
90 %85 %
1.07 → 1.08
X-8 %
11 %6 %
12.00 → 11.00
20 %
6 %1 %
23.00 → 23.00
LeoVegas · 27 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Paris Saint-Germain have scored in 25 consecutive league matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain win 75% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Paris Saint-Germain
Le Mans
Paris Saint-Germain (8–7)
Le Mans (9–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Paris Saint-Germain
Le Mans
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Paris Saint-Germain
Le Mans
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Paris Saint-Germain | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 6 |
| xPoints | 8 | 6.9 |
| xG per match | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 0.97 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.4 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Paris Saint-Germain | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.79 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.8 | 0.73 |
| xTA per match | 0.81 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 655 | 329 |
| Passes against per match | 305 | 389 |
| Switches of play per match | 60.6 | 27.3 |
| Long balls per match | 60 | 41 |
| Set pieces | Paris Saint-Germain | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 2.6 |
| Corners against per match | 1.2 | 6.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.83 | 0.51 |
| Other | Paris Saint-Germain | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Matvey Safonov (Paris Saint-Germain) | Nicolas Kocik (Le Mans) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 11 |
| Save % | 61% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Mans according to our model?
The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 82% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paris Saint-Germain 82%, draw 12%, Le Mans 6%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 69% and under at 31%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.