01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lille to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ligue 1Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille13°1,5 mm21 km/h
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LilleBalanced & physicalvs
Le HavreBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Lille (62%)Best value by the model: 2 · Le Havre @ 7.20 (+16 %)
Lille vs Le Havre · Ligue 1
1 · Lille 62%X 22%16% Le Havre · 2
62%
22%
16%
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Analysis: Lille – Le Havre
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Four recent meetings between Lille and Le Havre yield a slight edge for the hosts: 2 victories, a draw, and a solitary loss. However, with only four encounters, this head-to-head history is a small sample and less influential than current form and expected goals. Lille’s 56% home win rate, over a more substantial 36-match series, anchors their status as favorites. The model concurs, assigning a 62% probability to a home victory.
With Lille accumulating 10 points compared to Le Havre's 2, the hosts exhibit stronger form. Interestingly, Le Havre slightly outpace Lille in expected goals per match, 1.6 to 1.4, indicating they can create chances. Yet, defensively, Lille holds the advantage, conceding fewer expected goals per match—1.5 against Le Havre's 1.8. This defensive edge aligns with the model's predicted outcomes, highlighting Lille's capacity for control.
In terms of scorelines, both 2-0 and 1-0 in favor of Lille each have an 11% likelihood, while a 1-1 draw sits at 10%. The host's capacity for defensive control suggests a lean towards a lower-scoring affair, though the over 2.5 goals sits narrowly favored at 54%. With both teams adopting a balanced and physical style, this clash might hinge on tactical discipline and the occasional counter-punch rather than open play.
For those seeking value, LeoVegas offers Le Havre at odds of 6.5, with a calculated 4% edge based on the model's 16% chance of an away win. While Lille is the analytical choice, the value lies with Le Havre, hinting at the unpredictability that sometimes accompanies such fixtures.
LilleForm WDWWL
League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #13xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Ayase UedaRWxG 0.73 · xT 0.10
- Tiago Carvalho SantosRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.22
- Ethan MbappeFxG 0.39 · xT 0.15
Le HavreForm LDLDL
League ranking xG #7xGA #14xT #4xP/match #13Points #17
Key players
- Ally SamattaFxG 0.42 · xT 0.15
- Rayan FofanaFxG 1.02 · xT 0.02
- Michael Amir Junior RichardsonCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.12
Match prediction: Lille – Le Havre
Predicted score matrix
Le Havre →
Lille →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–14.8%
0–22.2%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.1%
1–110.3%
1–24.4%
1–31.3%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–011.2%
2–19.9%
2–24.3%
2–31.3%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–07.4%
3–16.5%
3–22.9%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–05.7%
4+–15.0%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,97–0,88
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.26EV+3%
Over 2,554%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lille to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Ngal'ayel Mukau to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Ngal'ayel Mukau to score26%
- Ayumu Seko to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Le Havre16% probability@7.20BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- 2 · Le Havre16% probability@7.20NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
- 2 · Le Havre16% probability@6.50LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lille | X | 2 · Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.45 | 4.30 | EV+ 16% 7.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.44 | EV+ 2% 4.75 | EV+ 4% 6.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.45 | 4.30 | EV+ 16% 7.20 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
1-1 %
68 %63 %
1.45 → 1.44
X+3 %
23 %18 %
4.60 → 4.75
20 %
17 %12 %
6.50 → 6.50
Over 2,5-4 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.61
LeoVegas · 13 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesLille 2Draw 1Le Havre 1
Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- LOSC Lille win 56% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lille
Le Havre
Lille (8–4)
Le Havre (4–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lille
Le Havre
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lille
Le Havre
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 2 |
| xPoints | 7.4 | 6.1 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| Playing style | Lille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.96 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.85 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 400 | 339 |
| Passes against per match | 448 | 367 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.6 | 25.9 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Lille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 2.8 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.11 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.5 |
| Other | Lille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Berke Özer (Lille) | Lionel Mpasi-Nzau (Le Havre) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 19 |
| Save % | 86% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 90% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lille vs Le Havre according to our model?
The model gives Lille a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lille 62%, draw 22%, Le Havre 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.