01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Nice or draw (1X)64%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Ligue 1Allianz Riviera, Nice19°11 km/h
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NiceBalanced & physicalvs
StrasbourgBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Nice (43%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.47 (+1 %)
Nice vs Strasbourg · Ligue 1
1 · Nice 43%X 24%32% Strasbourg · 2
43%
24%
32%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Nice – Strasbourg
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The razor-thin expected goals between Nice and Strasbourg—1.43 for the hosts and 1.38 for the visitors—sets the stage for a tightly contested matchup. The model marginally favors Nice with a 43% win probability, yet it's Strasbourg who holds the upper hand in recent form, leading both in points and expected points. This subtle contradiction sets the tension for the evening's clash.
Head-to-head encounters show an evenly matched rivalry, with Nice winning one, drawing two, and losing one since 2022. However, such a small sample size must be taken with caution compared to current season performance and expected goals. It's Strasbourg's superior xG per match—1.2 against Nice's 0.83—that tilts the balance of attacking prowess slightly in their favor.
Despite this, Nice's defensive metrics offer a counterweight. Their xGA of 1.4 per match suggests a more robust backline compared to Strasbourg's 1.8, hinting that the hosts might better absorb pressure. This defensive solidity could be key in breaking down a match where both teams share a physical and balanced playing style.
The numbers point toward a narrow encounter, and the model's most likely scoreline, 1-1, reflects this equilibrium. With an over 2.5 goals probability of 53%, there's a slight lean toward a higher-scoring game, yet the balance of factors suggests restraint. A 2-1 victory for Nice seems a plausible outcome, but it's by no means a lock.
Given the fine margins and the model's lean, Nice stands out as the side with a slight edge to win. While Strasbourg's form is compelling, the overall dynamics indicate that Nice's defensive edge might just tip the scales in their favor.
NiceForm DLDLW
League ranking xG #18xGA #7xT #9xP/match #18Points #14
Key players
- Sepe Elye Delmas WahiFxG 0.15 · xT -0.04
- Jonathan ClaussRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.32
- Youssouf NdayishimiyeCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
StrasbourgForm LWWDL
League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #18xP/match #15Points #8
Key players
- Gessime YassineRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.13
- Jacobo Ortega CondeFxG 0.19 · xT 0.07
- Joaquín Martínez GaunaLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Nice – Strasbourg
Predicted score matrix
Strasbourg →
Nice →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–17.9%
0–25.7%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.2%
1–28.2%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.2%
2–18.5%
2–25.9%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.1%
3–22.8%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,43–1,38
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.17EV+1%
Over 2,553%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Nice or draw (1X)64%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Nathan Ngoumou Minpole to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Jacobo Ortega Conde to score28%
- Axel Laurent Angel Lambert Witsel to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.569% probability@1.47LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.17PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.16BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nice | X | 2 · Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| LeoVegas | 2.25 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.63 | 3.06 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesNice 1Draw 2Strasbourg 1
Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Nice
Strasbourg
Nice (3–6)
Strasbourg (10–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Nice
Strasbourg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Nice
Strasbourg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Nice | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 7 |
| xPoints | 4.6 | 5.5 |
| xG per match | 0.83 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Nice | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 0.73 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 17 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 527 | 382 |
| Passes against per match | 378 | 457 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.9 | 19.4 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Nice | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 1.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.4 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| Other | Nice | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Yehvann Diouf (Nice) | Filip Jørgensen (Strasbourg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 21 |
| Save % | 74% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nice vs Strasbourg according to our model?
The model gives Nice a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nice 43%, draw 24%, Strasbourg 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.