01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Marseille or draw (X2)71%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Ligue 1Stade de l'Aube, Troyes12°0,3 mm18 km/h
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TroyesPossession & high pressvs
MarseillePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Marseille (40%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+37 %)
Troyes vs Marseille · Ligue 1
1 · Troyes 33%X 27%40% Marseille · 2
33%
27%
40%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Troyes – Marseille
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
The tension in this matchup starts with Marseille's recent four-game losing streak, a run that has them on the back foot against a Troyes side that has also struggled, losing their last three. Despite the visitors' higher probability of victory at 40%, the numbers present a story of two teams closer in capability than recent form suggests.
Troyes may only have 2 points to Marseille's 3, but their underlying performance tells a tale of missed opportunities. Their xPoints of 5.5 indicate they have played better than their results suggest. In contrast, Marseille’s 5.1 xPoints highlight a side that has not fully capitalized on its potential. Both teams share a possession-based, high-pressing style, which could lead to a tactical stalemate, particularly with the weather suppressing open play.
The expected goals for the hosts stand at 1.12 against the visitors' 1.44, suggesting that while Marseille might have a slight attacking edge, Troyes are not far behind. Defensively, the hosts appear more solid, with an xGA of 1.8 compared to Marseille's 2.2. This defensive disparity could be pivotal, especially under the expected rainy conditions, which often dampen goal-scoring chances.
Despite the small head-to-head sample, the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1 resonate with the underlying stats. The probability of both teams scoring at 52% and the 47% chance for over 2.5 goals signal a closer affair than the price might suggest. The under 2.5 goals bet aligns well with both the weather-induced playing conditions and statistical model.
While the visitors hold the edge, the hosts' potential for an upset should not be dismissed lightly.
TroyesForm DDLLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #16xT #10xP/match #16Points #18
Key players
- Jérémy Le DouaronFxG 0.58 · xT 0.01
- Renaud RipartFxG 0.47 · xT -0.01
- Antoine MilleCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.22
MarseilleForm WLLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #18xT #5xP/match #17Points #16
Key players
- Amine Ferid GouiriFxG 0.45 · xT 0.18
- Pierre Emile HojbjergCDMxG 0.13 · xT 0.13
- Emerson Palmieri dos SantosLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.21
Match prediction: Troyes – Marseille
Predicted score matrix
Marseille →
Troyes →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.1%
0–110.8%
0–28.0%
0–33.9%
0–4+1.9%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.8%
1–29.0%
1–34.3%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–04.8%
2–17.0%
2–25.0%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–01.8%
3–12.6%
3–21.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,12–1,44
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@2.41EV+27%
Over 2,547%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Marseille or draw (X2)71%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Amine Ferid Gouiri to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Amine Ferid Gouiri to score37%
- Mouhamed Diop to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.58% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+37%reference odds
- Under 0.58% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+37%reference odds
- 1 · Troyes33% probability@4.00PinnacleEV+32%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Troyes | X | 2 · Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 22% 3.70 | 3.65 | 1.92 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 26% 3.80 | EV+ 3% 3.85 | 1.85 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 22% 3.70 | 3.65 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 32% 4.00 | EV+ 6% 3.96 | 1.84 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 19:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
26 %21 %
3.95 → 4.00
X+2 %
27 %22 %
3.90 → 3.96
2+1 %
54 %49 %
1.83 → 1.84
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 02/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Troyes have lost 3 in a row.
- Marseille have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Troyes
Marseille
Troyes (4–11)
Marseille (7–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Troyes
Marseille
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Troyes
Marseille
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Troyes | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 3 |
| xPoints | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| Playing style | Troyes | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 298 | 521 |
| Passes against per match | 532 | 390 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.3 | 28.8 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Troyes | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 7.7 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 1.6 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| Other | Troyes | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| The goalkeepers | Patrick Thomas Beach (Troyes) | Jeffrey de Lange (Marseille) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 23 |
| Save % | 59% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Troyes vs Marseille according to our model?
The model gives Marseille a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Troyes 33%, draw 27%, Marseille 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.