Ligue 1Stade Océane, Le Havre11°11 km/h

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    Le HavreLe HavreCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-GermainPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Paris Saint-Germain (66%)Best value by the model: 1 · Le Havre @ 9.50 (+43 %)

    Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1

    1 · Le Havre 15%X 19%66% Paris Saint-Germain · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain (Ligue 1, Friday, 30 October 2026): Le Havre win 15%, draw 19%, Paris Saint-Germain win 66%. Expected goals (xG): Le Havre 1.18, Paris Saint-Germain 2.47. Most likely score: 1-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Le Havre or draw 34%, Paris Saint-Germain or draw 85%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Le Havre – Paris Saint-Germain

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    66% is the model’s win probability when Le Havre meet Paris Saint-Germain. The visitors are the clear side: four straight wins against four straight losses, plus a 27-match league scoring run. The model puts the hosts at 15% and the draw at 19%. Paris win is the analysis, plain enough.

    The matchup supports it. Le Havre’s counter-attacks and crosses face possession and a high press, while the xG split is 1.18 to 2.47. Season indicators lean the same way: 2 points versus 14, xPoints of 10.6 versus 11.4, xG per match of 1.7 versus 2.4, and xGA of 1.6 versus 1.0. Most likely score: 1-2 at 9%, ahead of 0-2 and 1-1 at 8%. Over 2.5 goals leans yes at 71%; both teams scoring sits at 64%.

    The head-to-head since 2022 is four matches, Le Havre 0W 0D 4L. It is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals. LeoVegas makes the home side 9.5, assessed as EV+ with a 43% edge from the model’s 15% rating; the draw at 6.75 is also EV+, with a 25% edge from 19%. Ugly prices pay bills: Le Havre at 9.5 is the sharpest value angle.

    Le HavreLe Havre
    Form DLLLL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #4xP/match #11Points #18
    Key players
    • Rayan FofanaFxG 0.69 · xT 0.07
    • Rassoul Kader NdiayeCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.18
    • Ally SamattaFxG 0.41 · xT 0.12
    Paris Saint-GermainParis Saint-Germain
    Form LWWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #1xP/match #4Points #5
    Key players
    • Khvicha KvaratskheliaLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.22
    • Marcos Aoás CorrêaCBxG 0.30 · xT 0.18
    • Ousmane DembeleFxG 0.79 · xT 0.44

    Match prediction: Le Havre – Paris Saint-Germain

    Predicted score matrix

    Paris Saint-Germain →
    Le Havre →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.8%
    0–16.2%
    0–27.9%
    0–36.5%
    0–4+7.2%
    1
    1–02.8%
    1–17.8%
    1–29.3%
    1–37.7%
    1–4+8.6%
    2
    2–01.8%
    2–14.5%
    2–25.5%
    2–34.6%
    2–4+5.1%
    3
    3–00.7%
    3–11.8%
    3–22.2%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+2.0%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-29%
    2. 2.0-28%
    3. 3.1-18%
    4. 4.1-38%
    5. 5.0-37%
    Expected goals
    1,18–2,47
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,7
    Under 2,529%
    @3.30
    Over 2,571%
    @1.31

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Paris Saint-Germain to win66%
    • Over 1.5 goals88%

    Combined probability

    59%

    Fair odds

    1.70

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Paris Saint-Germain to win66%
    • Over 2.5 goals71%
    • Maghnes Akliouche to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals71%
    • Maghnes Akliouche to score30%
    • Ahmed Touba to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Le Havre15% probability@9.50LeoVegasEV+43%reference odds
    • X · Draw19% probability@6.75LeoVegasEV+25%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Le HavreX2 · Paris Saint-Germain
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 43%
    9.50
    EV+ 25%
    6.75    		1.24

    Odds updated 25 Oct, 21:35

    Odds movement

    10 %
    12 %7 %

    9.50 → 9.50

    X0 %
    17 %12 %

    6.75 → 6.75

    20 %
    78 %73 %

    1.24 → 1.24

    Over 2,5+2 %
    74 %69 %

    1.29 → 1.31

    LeoVegas · 8 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Le Havre 0Draw 0Paris Saint-Germain 4
    Goals: 2–10 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Le Havre have lost 4 in a row.
    • Paris Saint-Germain come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    • Paris Saint-Germain have scored in 27 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Le Havre
    Paris Saint-Germain
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Le Havre (8–15)
    Paris Saint-Germain (14–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Le Havre
    Ahmed Touba: 246 passningar, xT 0.48ToubaAyumu Seko: 195 passningar, xT 0.48SekoSimon Ebonog: 172 passningar, xT 0.13EbonogDjibril Ouziad: 158 passningar, xT 0.59OuziadGauthier Gallon: 143 passningar, xT 0.08GallonMichael Amir Junior Richardson: 135 passningar, xT 0.37RichardsonJunior Mwanga: 116 passningar, xT 0.09MwangaRassoul Kader Ndiaye: 88 passningar, xT 0.44NdiayeSota Nakamura: 78 passningar, xT 0.76NakamuraAlly Samatta: 77 passningar, xT 0.49SamattaElias Jelert Kristensen: 75 passningar, xT 0.05Kristensen
    Paris Saint-Germain
    Vítor Machado Ferreira: 343 passningar, xT 0.5FerreiraJoao Neves: 261 passningar, xT -0.1NevesWarren Zaïre-Emery: 252 passningar, xT 0.15Zaïre-EmeryMarcos Aoás Corrêa: 221 passningar, xT 0.37CorrêaAchraf Hakimi: 177 passningar, xT 0.05HakimiLucas Hernandez: 176 passningar, xT 0.05HernandezWillian Pacho: 170 passningar, xT 0.02PachoIllia Zabarnyi: 167 passningar, xT 0.23ZabarnyiMaghnes Akliouche: 164 passningar, xT 0.09AklioucheFabian Ruiz: 163 passningar, xT 0.37RuizKhvicha Kvaratskhelia: 154 passningar, xT 0.35Kvaratskhelia
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Le Havre
    Ahmed Touba: 246 passningar, xT 0.48ToubaAyumu Seko: 195 passningar, xT 0.48SekoSimon Ebonog: 172 passningar, xT 0.13EbonogDjibril Ouziad: 158 passningar, xT 0.59OuziadGauthier Gallon: 143 passningar, xT 0.08GallonMichael Amir Junior Richardson: 135 passningar, xT 0.37RichardsonJunior Mwanga: 116 passningar, xT 0.09MwangaRassoul Kader Ndiaye: 88 passningar, xT 0.44NdiayeSota Nakamura: 78 passningar, xT 0.76NakamuraAlly Samatta: 77 passningar, xT 0.49SamattaElias Jelert Kristensen: 75 passningar, xT 0.05Kristensen
    Paris Saint-Germain
    Vítor Machado Ferreira: 343 passningar, xT 0.5FerreiraJoao Neves: 261 passningar, xT -0.1NevesWarren Zaïre-Emery: 252 passningar, xT 0.15Zaïre-EmeryMarcos Aoás Corrêa: 221 passningar, xT 0.37CorrêaAchraf Hakimi: 177 passningar, xT 0.05HakimiLucas Hernandez: 176 passningar, xT 0.05HernandezWillian Pacho: 170 passningar, xT 0.02PachoIllia Zabarnyi: 167 passningar, xT 0.23ZabarnyiMaghnes Akliouche: 164 passningar, xT 0.09AklioucheFabian Ruiz: 163 passningar, xT 0.37RuizKhvicha Kvaratskhelia: 154 passningar, xT 0.35Kvaratskhelia

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLe HavreParis Saint-Germain
    Points214
    xPoints10.611.4
    xG per match1.72.4
    xGA per match1.61
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.380.34
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.330.29
    Playing styleLe HavreParis Saint-Germain
    Build-up efficiency0.290.34
    Field tilt0.480.79
    xT per match1.21.7
    xTA per match0.830.78
    Won balls, offensive half2930
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.280.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.25
    Entries into the box per match1420
    Entries into the box against129
    Pass completion %0.760.86
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.8
    Passes per match346646
    Passes against per match364276
    Switches of play per match2755.7
    Long balls per match3254
    Set piecesLe HavreParis Saint-Germain
    xG from free kicks0.060.11
    Corners per match5.35.7
    Corners against per match4.71.9
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.120.65
    First touch, defensive corners %0.550.62
    OtherLe HavreParis Saint-Germain
    Throw-in control0.680.75
    The goalkeepersLionel Mpasi-Nzau (Le Havre)Matvey Safonov (Paris Saint-Germain)
    Saves1920
    Save %83%69%
    xG prevented51%59%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Le Havre
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Paris Saint-Germain
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain according to our model?

    The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Le Havre 15%, draw 19%, Paris Saint-Germain 66%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and under at 29%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain?

    The model expects 1.18 goals (xG) for Le Havre and 2.47 for Paris Saint-Germain, 3.66 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Le Havre or draw (1X) 34%, Paris Saint-Germain or draw (X2) 85% and no draw (12) 81%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.