01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Rennes or draw (X2)67%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ligue 1Allianz Riviera, Nice16°1,6 mm7 km/h
Läs på svenska
NiceBalanced & physicalvs
RennesBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Rennes (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.54 (+16 %)
Nice vs Rennes · Ligue 1
1 · Nice 35%X 26%39% Rennes · 2
35%
26%
39%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Nice vs Rennes (Ligue 1, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Nice win 35%, draw 26%, Rennes win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Nice 1.33, Rennes 1.53. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Nice or draw 61%, Rennes or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Nice – Rennes
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
1.8 xG per match for Rennes is the cleanest split in this matchup. Nice sit at 0.84, while the visitors also lead on points, 16 to 11, and xPoints, 11.5 to 7.9. The hosts have the better defensive rate, conceding 1.4 xGA per match against 1.8, but the analysis still points to Rennes as the lean: 39% away win, 26% draw, 35% home win.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 8%. Expected goals land at 1.33 and 1.53, with over 2.5 goals rated 55% and both teams to score 58%. Both sides profile as balanced and physical, so this looks more like a controlled contest than a wide-open one. The head-to-head since 2022 is four matches, with Nice 2W, 0D, 2L; it is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals.
The market value sits against the model’s over lean: under 2.5 at 2.54 with Betsafe and Nordicbet is rated 45%, a 16% edge. Under 1.5 at 5.17 with Betsafe is rated 22%, a 12% edge, but the steadier ticket is under 2.5 at 2.54.
NiceForm LWWLW
League ranking xG #18xGA #8xT #10xP/match #18Points #10
Key players
- Jonathan ClaussRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.29
- Sepe Elye Delmas WahiFxG 0.22 · xT 0.04
- Xavier Junior Mandza TsiendiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
RennesForm WLWLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #14xT #2xP/match #5Points #1
Key players
- Abdelhamid Aït BoudlalCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
- Przemyslaw FrankowskiRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.22
- Valentin RongierCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Nice – Rennes
Predicted score matrix
Rennes →
Nice →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–18.4%
0–26.7%
0–33.4%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–07.3%
1–112.0%
1–28.9%
1–34.5%
1–4+2.4%
2
2–05.1%
2–17.8%
2–25.9%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.5%
3–22.6%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.5%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,33–1,53
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.54EV+16%
Over 2,555%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Rennes or draw (X2)67%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Boulaye Dia to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Boulaye Dia to score22%
- Hicham Boudaoui to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.545% probability@2.54BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.54NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
- Under 1.522% probability@5.17BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Nice | X | 2 · Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.38 |
| LeoVegas | 2.70 | 3.75 | 2.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.38 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 20:36
Odds movement
10 %
37 %32 %
2.70 → 2.70
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.75 → 3.75
2-1 %
42 %37 %
2.38 → 2.35
Over 2,5+1 %
64 %59 %
1.50 → 1.52
LeoVegas · 9 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesNice 2Draw 0Rennes 2
Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Nice
Rennes
Nice (8–10)
Rennes (18–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Nice
Rennes
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Nice
Rennes
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Nice | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 16 |
| xPoints | 7.9 | 11.5 |
| xG per match | 0.84 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Nice | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 480 | 408 |
| Passes against per match | 393 | 401 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.1 | 27.1 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Nice | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.5 |
| Other | Nice | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Yehvann Diouf (Nice) | Brice Samba (Rennes) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 26 |
| Save % | 73% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Nice vs Rennes according to our model?
The model gives Rennes a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nice 35%, draw 26%, Rennes 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Nice vs Rennes?
The model expects 1.33 goals (xG) for Nice and 1.53 for Rennes, 2.86 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Nice or draw (1X) 61%, Rennes or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.