01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Paris FC or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ligue 1Stade Jean-Bouin, Paris8°11 km/h
Läs på svenska
Paris FCBalanced & physicalvs
MonacoPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Paris FC (43%)
Paris FC vs Monaco · Ligue 1
1 · Paris FC 43%X 26%31% Monaco · 2
43%
26%
31%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Paris FC vs Monaco (Ligue 1, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Paris FC win 43%, draw 26%, Monaco win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Paris FC 1.53, Monaco 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Paris FC or draw 69%, Monaco or draw 57%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Paris FC – Monaco
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Paris FC have won both meetings with Monaco since 2022: 2W, 0D, 0L. That is a clean historical edge, but the sample is small and weighs less than current form and expected-goals data. It says the hosts have found a way through this opponent before. It does not outweigh the broader performance picture.
Monaco hold the narrow points edge, 15 to 14, yet the underlying numbers turn the table reading on its head. Paris carry 13.4 xPoints against the visitors’ 10.5, generate 1.6 xG per match to 1.3, and concede only 0.97 xGA per match versus 1.3. That is the colder read: the hosts have performed like the better side even if the points column is one point behind.
The matchup suits that conclusion. Paris are balanced and physical, while Monaco want possession and press high. The visitors can create pressure, but their defensive numbers leave space for a direct, disciplined home side to exploit. The model gives the hosts a 43% win probability, ahead of Monaco’s 31%, with the draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, but the next live home result is 2-1 at 9%, followed by 1-0 at 8%. The analysis points to Paris as the side to trust, with 2-1 the sharper match result call despite 1-1 being the single most frequent scoreline.
Goals lean over 2.5 at 55%, and both teams to score sits at 58%. Those figures fit a game where Monaco’s press produces chances but does not shut down Paris. The 1.53 to 1.34 expected-goals split is not explosive, yet it clears the line often enough to make Over 2.5 the preferred total angle. Paris FC draw-no-bet is the safer side position; Over 2.5 goals is the sharper one.
Paris FCForm DWLWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #9xP/match #3Points #6
Key players
- Adama Mohamed CamaraRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
- Maxime LopezCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.18
- Diego CoppolaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
MonacoForm DWDLD
League ranking xG #12xGA #7xT #11xP/match #12Points #3
Key players
- Vanderson de Oliveira CamposRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.25
- Lamine CamaraCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
- Eric DierCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Paris FC – Monaco
Predicted score matrix
Monaco →
Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–17.3%
0–25.1%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.0%
1–27.8%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.6%
2–18.9%
2–26.0%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.5%
3–23.0%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,53–1,34
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.13
Over 2,555%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Paris FC or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Lassine Fanta Mady Sinayoko to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Paris Josua Brunner to score33%
- Denis Lemi Zakaria Lako Lado to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Paris FC43% probability@2.32PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Paris FC | X | 2 · Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.22 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| LeoVegas | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.95 |
| Nordicbet | 2.22 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 0% 2.32 | 3.59 | 2.91 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 01:36
Odds movement
10 %
44 %39 %
2.31 → 2.32
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.59 → 3.59
20 %
35 %30 %
2.92 → 2.91
Over 2,50 %
57 %52 %
1.73 → 1.74
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesParis FC 2Draw 0Monaco 0
Goals: 5–1 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Paris FC
Monaco
Paris FC (13–9)
Monaco (11–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Paris FC
Monaco
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Paris FC
Monaco
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Paris FC | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 15 |
| xPoints | 13.4 | 10.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 0.97 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.46 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Paris FC | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 499 | 458 |
| Passes against per match | 467 | 438 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.5 | 28.8 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Paris FC | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.76 |
| Other | Paris FC | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Kevin Trapp (Paris FC) | Lukas Hradecky (Monaco) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 24 |
| Save % | 74% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Paris FC vs Monaco according to our model?
The model gives Paris FC a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paris FC 43%, draw 26%, Monaco 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Paris FC vs Monaco?
The model expects 1.53 goals (xG) for Paris FC and 1.34 for Monaco, 2.87 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Paris FC or draw (1X) 69%, Monaco or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.