Lorient vs Brest Prediction: Home win 37% (31 Oct 2026)

Ligue 131 October 2026Stade du Moustoir, Lorient10°11 km/h

Läs på svenska

LorientCounter-attacks & crosses

BrestPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Lorient (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Brest @ 2.85 (+1 %)

1 · Lorient 37%X 28%35% Brest · 2

37%

28%

35%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lorient vs Brest (Ligue 1, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Lorient win 37%, draw 28%, Brest win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Lorient 1.29, Brest 1.36. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Lorient or draw 65%, Brest or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Lorient – Brest

Marcus Johansson · 26 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Lorient’s counter-attacking and crossing unit meets Brest’s possession control, and that clash sets the tone more clearly than the table alone. The hosts should have moments to break into space and attack from wide areas; the visitors should have more of the ball and the stronger platform for sustained pressure. The analysis points to a very tight home lean, not a clear home win: model probabilities are Lorient 37%, draw 28%, Brest 35%.

The tension sits in the underlying numbers. Lorient have 12 points to Brest’s 9, but the visitors lead on xPoints, 14.0 to 11.5, and on xG per match, 1.8 to 1.1. That is a meaningful signal for the away side’s chance creation. The hosts have the marginally better defensive record by xGA per match, 1.0 against 1.1, so Brest’s possession game may not translate into a flood of clean openings. This looks like a match where control and threat are split between the teams.

Expected goals are similarly narrow: 1.29 for the home side and 1.36 for the visitors. Both teams to score sits at 54%, enough to make a shared goal plausible, but Over 2.5 goals is only 49%. The under is therefore the lean, albeit by a fine margin. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 and 1-0, both at 9%. My call is 1-1, with Brest’s attacking process balancing Lorient’s direct routes and home edge.

The head-to-head since 2022 is Lorient 0W 1D 1L from 2 matches. That sample is small and weighs less than form and expected goals; it should not be used as a decisive case for either side.

The sharper price angle is Brest away at 2.85 with LeoVegas. The model rates the visitors at 35%, giving a 1% edge, so it is assessed as EV+ rather than a guarantee.

Lorient

Form DLWWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #3xT #16xP/match #6Points #9

Key players

Arthur Ebong AvomCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Montassar Omar TalbiCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
Kan Guy Arsène KouassiLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.10

Brest

Form LLWDL

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #12xP/match #2Points #13

Key players

Ludovic AjorqueFxG 0.29 · xT 0.06
Mama BaldeRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.12
Joris Jean-Claude Jacques ChotardCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Lorient – Brest

Predicted score matrix

Brest →

Lorient →

0–07.4%

0–19.3%

0–26.6%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.4%

1–08.7%

1–112.8%

1–28.4%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.9%

2–18.0%

2–25.4%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.5%

3–13.4%

3–22.3%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,29–1,36

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.82

Over 2,549%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Lorient or draw (1X)62%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Lorient or draw (1X)62%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Noah Mbamba-Muanda to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Noah Mbamba-Muanda to score34%
Mamady Diambou to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Brest35% probability@2.85LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lorient	X	2 · Brest
Betsafe	2.45	3.30	2.82
LeoVegas	2.45	3.35	EV+ 1% 2.85
Nordicbet	2.45	3.30	2.82

Odds updated 26 Oct, 20:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 23 October — the odds have shortened from 1.90 to 1.77 (−7%).

1-6 %

40 %35 %

2.60 → 2.45

X-3 %

30 %25 %

3.45 → 3.35

2+10 %

37 %32 %

2.60 → 2.85

Over 2,5+10 %

52 %47 %

1.80 → 1.98

LeoVegas · 12 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Lorient 0Draw 1Brest 1

Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lorient

Brest

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lorient (7–6)

Brest (14–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lorient

Brest

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lorient

Brest

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lorient	Brest
Points	12	9
xPoints	11.5	14
xG per match	1.1	1.8
xGA per match	1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.27

Playing style	Lorient	Brest
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.28
Field tilt	0.38	0.39
xT per match	0.77	0.97
xTA per match	1.1	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	21	30
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.18
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.69
Passes per match	433	344
Passes against per match	512	414
Switches of play per match	24.5	31.6
Long balls per match	31	41

Set pieces	Lorient	Brest
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.1
Corners per match	3.2	4.6
Corners against per match	5.8	4.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.51
First touch, defensive corners %	0.73	0.49

Other	Lorient	Brest
Throw-in control	0.8	0.69

The goalkeepers	Yvon Mvogo (Lorient)	Egil Selvik (Brest)
Saves	26	22
Save %	81%	67%
xG prevented	53%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lorient

Fixtures, form & tips

Brest

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lorient vs Brest according to our model?

The model gives Lorient a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lorient 37%, draw 28%, Brest 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lorient vs Brest?

The model expects 1.29 goals (xG) for Lorient and 1.36 for Brest, 2.65 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lorient or draw (1X) 65%, Brest or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.