01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw (1X)68%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Ligue 1Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg6°14 km/h
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StrasbourgBalanced & physicalvs
AuxerreBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Strasbourg (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Auxerre @ 3.99 (+26 %)
Strasbourg vs Auxerre · Ligue 1
1 · Strasbourg 42%X 26%32% Auxerre · 2
42%
26%
32%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Strasbourg vs Auxerre (Ligue 1, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Strasbourg win 42%, draw 26%, Auxerre win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Strasbourg 1.65, Auxerre 1.41. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Strasbourg or draw 68%, Auxerre or draw 58%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Strasbourg – Auxerre
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Strasbourg’s defensive unit is carrying the loudest number into this game: 1.8 xGA per match. Auxerre arrive with 1.41 expected goals in the model and have scored in 13 consecutive league matches, so the visitors have a credible route through even without a major stylistic mismatch. Both sides profile as balanced and physical. That points to a contest decided by duels, second balls and the ability to turn pressure into clean entries rather than by one team monopolising the match.
The model still gives Strasbourg the narrow result edge, at 42% against Auxerre’s 32%, with the draw at 26%. Yet the hosts have lost 4 in a row, while the visitors hold the stronger underlying season line: 10 points to 7, 11.2 xPoints to 8.4, 1.2 xG per match to 1.1, and 1.6 xGA to 1.8. That is the tension here. Strasbourg have home-side probability and a favourable matchup history, but Auxerre have played the more sustainable football across the season numbers.
The head-to-head since 2022 reads 4 matches, with Strasbourg at 3W, 1D and 0L. It is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals. More relevant is that the visitors’ scoring streak meets a home defence conceding too much in chance quality. Strasbourg’s 1.65 expected goals keep them dangerous, though, and both teams to score sits at 61%.
The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 at 9% and 1-2 at 8%. My match lean is a narrow Strasbourg result edge, but the scoreline call is 1-1 and the goals lean is over 2.5 at 59%, from a combined 3.06 expected goals. The sharper betting angle is Auxerre away: Betsafe and Nordicbet offer 3.95, assessed as 25% edge with the model rating them at 32%; LeoVegas offers 3.85, assessed at 22% edge.
StrasbourgForm DLLLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #15xP/match #17Points #16
Key players
- Ismaël Landry DoukouréCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
- Jeyland Yahir Mitchell BaltodanoCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
- Joaquín Martínez GaunaLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
AuxerreForm WWLWD
League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #18xP/match #9Points #12
Key players
- Kévin DanoisCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
- Cameron Desmond ArcherFxG 0.31 · xT 0.05
- Daniel Namaso Edi-Mesumbe LoaderFxG 0.36 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Strasbourg – Auxerre
Predicted score matrix
Auxerre →
Strasbourg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–16.3%
0–24.7%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–07.5%
1–111.3%
1–27.7%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.4%
2–19.0%
2–26.3%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.9%
3–23.5%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.1%
4+–12.9%
4+–22.1%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-06%
Expected goals
1,65–1,41
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.36
Over 2,559%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw (1X)68%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Sékou Mara to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Sékou Mara to score25%
- Naouirou Mohamed Ahamada to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Auxerre32% probability@3.99PinnacleEV+26%reference odds
- 2 · Auxerre32% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
- 2 · Auxerre32% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Strasbourg | X | 2 · Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.82 | EV+ 0% 3.85 | EV+ 25% 3.95 |
| LeoVegas | 1.85 | EV+ 0% 3.85 | EV+ 22% 3.85 |
| Nordicbet | 1.82 | EV+ 0% 3.85 | EV+ 25% 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | EV+ 3% 3.97 | EV+ 26% 3.99 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 15:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesStrasbourg 3Draw 1Auxerre 0
Goals: 7–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Strasbourg have lost 4 in a row.
- Auxerre have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Strasbourg
Auxerre
Strasbourg (12–18)
Auxerre (12–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Strasbourg
Auxerre
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Strasbourg
Auxerre
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Strasbourg | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 10 |
| xPoints | 8.4 | 11.2 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Strasbourg | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 384 | 320 |
| Passes against per match | 466 | 387 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.7 | 23.9 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Strasbourg | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 2.4 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 6.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Other | Strasbourg | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Jørgensen (Strasbourg) | Mamadou Diop (Auxerre) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 24 |
| Save % | 65% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Strasbourg vs Auxerre according to our model?
The model gives Strasbourg a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Strasbourg 42%, draw 26%, Auxerre 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Strasbourg and 1.41 for Auxerre, 3.05 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Strasbourg or draw (1X) 68%, Auxerre or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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