Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction: Home win 48% (1 Nov 2026)

Ligue 11 November 2026Stade Vélodrome, Marseille15°0,2 mm14 km/h

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MarseillePossession & high press

ToulousePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Marseille (48%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 4.37 (+18 %)

1 · Marseille 48%X 24%28% Toulouse · 2

48%

24%

28%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Marseille vs Toulouse (Ligue 1, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Marseille win 48%, draw 24%, Toulouse win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Marseille 1.92, Toulouse 1.56. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%. Double chance: Marseille or draw 72%, Toulouse or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Marseille – Toulouse

Oscar Nilsson · 26 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

48% to 28% is enough to make Marseille the model’s lean, but not enough to price Toulouse as harmless outsiders. The call is a narrow home edge rather than a comfortable favourite: 1-1, at 10%, is the single most likely scoreline, ahead of 2-1 at 9% and 1-2 at 7%. That tension is the match.

The hosts arrive on 3 straight wins; the visitors are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches. The home side’s possession-and-high-press profile meets the visitors’ possession control, a collision likely to create turnovers as well as long spells without them. Expected goals sit at 1.92 for the hosts and 1.56 for the away side. Both teams average 1.6 xG per match, with the comparison marked as a home edge.

Results have given the hosts 12 points to 10, yet the underlying ledger pushes back. The visitors lead xPoints 11.4 to 9.1 and have the firmer defensive process, allowing 1.4 xGA per match against 2.0. That is why the 48% home-win probability feels fair, but also why backing a short home price blindly would be a mistake.

The hosts have won 58% of 38 home matches, a useful local baseline. Their head-to-head since 2022 reads 3W 1D 0L across four meetings. That sample is small and weighs less than form and expected goals, especially when the visitors’ current unbeaten run and superior xPoints point in a different direction.

Goals are where the model speaks most clearly: over 2.5 goals is 68%, and both teams to score is also 68%. The over 4.5 assessment is EV+ at 4.37 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, with a 27% model rating and 18% edge; over 3.5 is EV+ at 2.48 with Betsafe, rated 46% with a 14% edge. Those are assessments, not guarantees. Take over 3.5 at 2.48 with Betsafe: it is the sharpest angle.

Marseille

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #5xP/match #16Points #8

Key players

Amine HaritRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
Geoffrey Edwin KondogbiaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Amine Ferid GouiriFxG 0.46 · xT 0.16

Toulouse

Form DWDWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #6xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Rasmus NicolaisenCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.03
Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr.CDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.28
Ilyas AziziFxG 0.18 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Marseille – Toulouse

Predicted score matrix

Toulouse →

Marseille →

0–03.4%

0–14.5%

0–23.8%

0–32.0%

0–4+1.1%

1–05.6%

1–19.5%

1–27.2%

1–33.8%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.9%

2–26.9%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.0%

3–03.6%

3–15.7%

3–24.4%

3–32.3%

3–4+1.3%

4+–02.7%

4+–14.2%

4+–23.3%

4+–31.7%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.2-06%

Expected goals

1,92–1,56

Both teams to score

68%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,532%

@2.41

Over 2,568%

@1.58EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Marseille to win48%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Marseille to win48%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Neal Maupay to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score68%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Neal Maupay to score33%
Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr. to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.527% probability@4.37BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
Over 4.527% probability@4.37NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
Over 3.546% probability@2.48BetsafeEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Marseille	X	2 · Toulouse
Betsafe	1.88	3.85	EV+ 5% 3.70
LeoVegas	1.92	3.80	EV+ 0% 3.55
Nordicbet	1.88	3.85	EV+ 5% 3.70
Pinnacle	1.83	3.96	EV+ 10% 3.89

Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Marseille 3Draw 1Toulouse 0

Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

Key facts

Marseille come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Toulouse are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Marseille win 58% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Marseille

Toulouse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Marseille (18–13)

Toulouse (12–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Marseille

Toulouse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Marseille

Toulouse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Marseille	Toulouse
Points	12	10
xPoints	9.1	11.4
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.39	0.29

Playing style	Marseille	Toulouse
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.61	0.52
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	1.4	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	27	23
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.83	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.74
Passes per match	509	450
Passes against per match	366	416
Switches of play per match	28.1	25.9
Long balls per match	28	29

Set pieces	Marseille	Toulouse
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	4.4	4.2
Corners against per match	4.2	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.66
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.79

Other	Marseille	Toulouse
Throw-in control	0.74	0.79

The goalkeepers	Jeffrey de Lange (Marseille)	Guillaume Restes (Toulouse)
Saves	30	17
Save %	70%	74%
xG prevented	35%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Marseille

Fixtures, form & tips

Toulouse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Marseille vs Toulouse according to our model?

The model gives Marseille a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Marseille 48%, draw 24%, Toulouse 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 68% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Marseille vs Toulouse?

The model expects 1.92 goals (xG) for Marseille and 1.56 for Toulouse, 3.48 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Marseille or draw (1X) 72%, Toulouse or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.