Lyon vs Angers Prediction: Home win 70% (31 Oct 2026)

Ligue 131 October 2026Groupama Stadium, Lyon8°15 km/h

Läs på svenska

LyonPossession control

AngersBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Lyon (70%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.56 (+11 %)

1 · Lyon 70%X 18%12% Angers · 2

70%

18%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lyon vs Angers (Ligue 1, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Lyon win 70%, draw 18%, Angers win 12%. Expected goals (xG): Lyon 2.26, Angers 0.69. Most likely score: 2-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: Lyon or draw 88%, Angers or draw 30%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Lyon – Angers

Anna Karlsson · 26 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The game turns on whether Lyon can keep Angers at arm’s length. The hosts are projected for 2.26 expected goals, the visitors for only 0.69, and that gap points to territorial control rather than a trading of chances. Lyon’s possession profile should force the physical, balanced visitors into long defensive spells. The analysis points plainly to a home win: 2-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13%, ahead of 1-0 at 12% and 3-0 at 10%.

This is not merely a case for backing the stronger badge. Lyon have 14 points to Angers’ 8, while the expected-points gap is 12.3 to 9.3. More tellingly, the hosts concede 0.99 xG per match; Angers allow 1.8. That is the central matchup: a side built to control possession facing a defence that has struggled to limit quality. Lyon have also won 68% of 38 home matches, reinforcing the model’s 70% home-win probability against 18% for the draw and 12% for the visitors.

The head-to-head adds a little support, not the foundation. Since 2022, Lyon have three wins and one draw from four meetings with Angers. That sample is small and weighs less than current form indicators and expected-goals data. Angers’ 1.4 xG per match is respectable enough to prevent complacency, but both teams to score is rated only 45%. The cleaner route is still Lyon setting the pace, scoring first and suffocating the reply.

The over 2.5 lean is 57%, so the straight model call is over, but the sharper pricing argument sits against it. Under 2.5 at 2.48 with Betsafe or Nordicbet is assessed as EV+, with the model rating it 43% and finding an 8% edge. Under 1.5 at 5.17 with Betsafe is also assessed as EV+, rated 20% with a 6% edge. Lyon 2-0 is the likeliest scoreline; under 2.5 at 2.48 is the betting angle.

Lyon

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #13xP/match #1Points #4

Key players

Ernest NuamahRWxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
Moussa NiakhatéCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Lois OpendaLWxG 0.53 · xT 0.08

Angers

Form DWLLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #17xT #7xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Branco van den BoomenCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Mohamed Amine SbaïLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.31
Carlens ArcusRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Lyon – Angers

Predicted score matrix

Angers →

Lyon →

0–05.5%

0–13.4%

0–21.3%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.6%

1–18.4%

1–22.8%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.1%

2–013.3%

2–19.2%

2–23.2%

2–30.7%

2–4+0.1%

3–010.0%

3–17.0%

3–22.4%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–09.6%

4+–16.7%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-012%
3.3-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,26–0,69

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.56EV+11%

Over 2,557%

@1.53

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lyon to win70%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lyon to win70%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mads Bidstrup to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mads Bidstrup to score30%
Yassine Belkhdim to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.543% probability@2.56BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
Under 2.543% probability@2.56NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
Under 1.520% probability@5.34BetsafeEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lyon	X	2 · Angers
Betsafe	1.36	5.10	7.60
LeoVegas	1.38	5.20	7.00
Nordicbet	1.36	5.10	7.60

Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

70 %65 %

1.40 → 1.38

X+4 %

21 %16 %

5.00 → 5.20

2+4 %

16 %11 %

6.75 → 7.00

Over 2,5+1 %

64 %59 %

1.52 → 1.53

LeoVegas · 12 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Lyon 3Draw 1Angers 0

Goals: 6–0 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

Key facts

Lyon win 68% of their home matches all-time (38 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lyon

Angers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lyon (13–5)

Angers (9–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lyon

Angers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lyon

Angers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lyon	Angers
Points	14	8
xPoints	12.3	9.3
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	0.99	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.43	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.48

Playing style	Lyon	Angers
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.54	0.39
xT per match	0.92	1.1
xTA per match	0.95	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	25	20
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.17
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	13	17
Pass completion %	0.8	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.73
Passes per match	411	375
Passes against per match	388	407
Switches of play per match	36.6	39.8
Long balls per match	34	42

Set pieces	Lyon	Angers
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.01
Corners per match	4.3	6.4
Corners against per match	6.3	5.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.53

Other	Lyon	Angers
Throw-in control	0.77	0.69

The goalkeepers	Dominik Greif (Lyon)	Anthony Lopes (Angers)
Saves	18	32
Save %	82%	70%
xG prevented	72%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lyon

Fixtures, form & tips

Angers

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lyon vs Angers according to our model?

The model gives Lyon a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lyon 70%, draw 18%, Angers 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lyon vs Angers?

The model expects 2.26 goals (xG) for Lyon and 0.69 for Angers, 2.95 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lyon or draw (1X) 88%, Angers or draw (X2) 30% and no draw (12) 82%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.