3. Liga18°0,9 mm21 km/h

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    Alemannia AachenAlemannia AachenLow block & direct
    0–3
    SV MeppenSV MeppenCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Alemannia Aachen (61%)Best value by the model: 2 · SV Meppen @ 6.80 (+51 %)

    Alemannia Aachen – SV Meppen · 3. Liga

    1 · Alemannia Aachen 61%X 16%22% SV Meppen · 2

    Analysis: Alemannia Aachen – SV Meppen

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Alemannia Aachen's 14-match unbeaten streak in league play is the standout number here, underlining their strong recent form. The model sees a 61% chance of a home victory, favoring Aachen's efficient low defense and direct play over SV Meppen's counter-attacking style. With Aachen having scored in 20 consecutive league matches and expected goals at 2.33 compared to Meppen's 1.11, the hosts are positioned strongly.

    The probabilities suggest a 10% likelihood for a 2-1 scoreline, followed closely by a 9% chance of a 2-0 victory for Aachen. With an over 2.5 goals probability of 67% and both teams to score at 61%, the data points to a dynamic match. However, given Aachen's defensive strength and Meppen's more reactive play, maintaining control should tilt the balance towards a 2-0 result.

    While the smart money might back the solid structure of Aachen, there's an intriguing potential value on Meppen at odds of 6.8 with Betsson, as the model estimates a 22% chance for the visitors. This 51% edge makes Meppen's upset an option worth contemplating, even if the safer play stays with the home side.

    Alemannia AachenAlemannia Aachen
    Form DWWWD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #14xP/match #3Points #4
    Key players
    • Faton AdemiFxG 0.47 · xT 0.07
    • Daniel StarodidFxG 0.31 · xT -0.03
    • Lukas ScepanikLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.06
    SV MeppenSV Meppen
    Form LW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #14xT #2xP/match #12Points #10
    Key players
    • Luca PrasseRWxG 0.47 · xT 0.54
    • Oliver Issa SchmittFxG 0.15 · xT 0.11
    • Thorben-Johannes DetersCAMxG 0.22 · xT 0.45
    Final score
    0 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Alemannia Aachen 61% · Draw 16% · SV Meppen 22%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - SV Meppen 1912Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 18,20fair 18,01+1 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Alemannia AachenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,34fair 3,99-16 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Alemannia Aachen – SV Meppen

    Predicted score matrix

    SV Meppen →
    Alemannia Aachen →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.4%
    0–13.3%
    0–22.0%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–07.2%
    1–18.5%
    1–24.6%
    1–31.7%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–08.7%
    2–19.7%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–06.8%
    3–17.5%
    3–24.2%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–06.8%
    4+–17.6%
    4+–24.2%
    4+–31.6%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-110%
    2. 2.2-09%
    3. 3.1-19%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    2,33–1,11
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,4
    Under 2,533%
    @2.68
    Over 2,567%
    @1.41

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Alemannia Aachen to win61%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.75

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Alemannia Aachen to win61%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • Mika Schröers to score46%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals67%
    • Mika Schröers to score46%
    • Erik Zenga to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · SV Meppen22% probability@6.80BetssonEV+51%reference odds
    • 2 · SV Meppen22% probability@5.15PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Alemannia AachenX2 · SV Meppen
    Betfair Exchange1.103.753.60
    Betsson1.344.95
    EV+ 51%
    6.80
    Pinnacle1.495.17
    EV+ 15%
    5.15

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    66 %61 %

    1.46 → 1.49

    X+1 %
    21 %16 %

    5.11 → 5.17

    2+2 %
    21 %16 %

    5.06 → 5.15

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Alemannia Aachen are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.
    • Alemannia Aachen have scored in 20 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Alemannia Aachen
    SV Meppen
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Alemannia Aachen (5–2)
    SV Meppen (2–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Alemannia Aachen
    Petros Bagalianis: 65 passningar, xT 0.13BagalianisJoel Miguel da Silva Kiala: 63 passningar, xT 0.11KialaMika Timothy Hanraths: 59 passningar, xT 0.2HanrathsStefan Bajić: 53 passningar, xT 0.13BajićLukas Scepanik: 47 passningar, xT 0.09ScepanikFaton Ademi: 37 passningar, xT 0.09AdemiDanilo Wiebe: 32 passningar, xT 0.03WiebeMehdi Loune: 24 passningar, xT 0.12LouneMika Schroers: 21 passningar, xT 0SchroersDaniel Starodid: 21 passningar, xT -0.06StarodidLouis Koster: 18 passningar, xT 0.15Koster
    SV Meppen
    Dominique Domrose: 70 passningar, xT 0.49DomroseLuis Sprekelmeyer: 62 passningar, xT 0.15SprekelmeyerErsin Zehir: 60 passningar, xT 0.05ZehirStefan Rankić: 57 passningar, xT 0RankićJulius Pünt: 54 passningar, xT 0.11PüntThorben-Johannes Deters: 53 passningar, xT 0.67DetersTobias Mißner: 38 passningar, xT 0.22MißnerErik Zenga: 34 passningar, xT 0.06ZengaLuca Prasse: 31 passningar, xT 0.63PrasseNiclas Tibor Nadj: 31 passningar, xT 0.07NadjOliver Issa Schmitt: 22 passningar, xT 0.15Schmitt
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Alemannia Aachen
    Petros Bagalianis: 65 passningar, xT 0.13BagalianisJoel Miguel da Silva Kiala: 63 passningar, xT 0.11KialaMika Timothy Hanraths: 59 passningar, xT 0.2HanrathsStefan Bajić: 53 passningar, xT 0.13BajićLukas Scepanik: 47 passningar, xT 0.09ScepanikFaton Ademi: 37 passningar, xT 0.09AdemiDanilo Wiebe: 32 passningar, xT 0.03WiebeMehdi Loune: 24 passningar, xT 0.12LouneMika Schroers: 21 passningar, xT 0SchroersDaniel Starodid: 21 passningar, xT -0.06StarodidLouis Koster: 18 passningar, xT 0.15Koster
    SV Meppen
    Dominique Domrose: 70 passningar, xT 0.49DomroseLuis Sprekelmeyer: 62 passningar, xT 0.15SprekelmeyerErsin Zehir: 60 passningar, xT 0.05ZehirStefan Rankić: 57 passningar, xT 0RankićJulius Pünt: 54 passningar, xT 0.11PüntThorben-Johannes Deters: 53 passningar, xT 0.67DetersTobias Mißner: 38 passningar, xT 0.22MißnerErik Zenga: 34 passningar, xT 0.06ZengaLuca Prasse: 31 passningar, xT 0.63PrasseNiclas Tibor Nadj: 31 passningar, xT 0.07NadjOliver Issa Schmitt: 22 passningar, xT 0.15Schmitt

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAlemannia AachenSV Meppen
    Points43
    xPoints3.82.5
    xG per match1.81.6
    xGA per match1.11.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.270.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.27
    Playing styleAlemannia AachenSV Meppen
    Build-up efficiency0.30.34
    Field tilt0.440.36
    xT per match0.891.5
    xTA per match0.981.4
    Won balls, offensive half2121
    Pressing intensity0.20.22
    Pressing efficiency0.280.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.24
    Entries into the box per match1015
    Entries into the box against1418
    Pass completion %0.680.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.590.64
    Passes per match237278
    Passes against per match406337
    Switches of play per match11.919.2
    Long balls per match2536
    Set piecesAlemannia AachenSV Meppen
    xG from free kicks0.330.06
    Corners per match2.56.5
    Corners against per match2.57.1
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.20.46
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.57
    OtherAlemannia AachenSV Meppen
    Throw-in control0.690.74
    The goalkeepersStefan Bajić (Alemannia Aachen)Julius Pünt (SV Meppen)
    Saves46
    Save %67%67%
    xG prevented69%75%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Alemannia Aachen
    Fixtures, form & tips
    SV Meppen
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Alemannia Aachen vs SV Meppen according to our model?

    The model gives Alemannia Aachen a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alemannia Aachen 61%, draw 16%, SV Meppen 22%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.