3. Liga

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    GR
    GrossaspachCounter-attacks & crosses
    0–2
    IngolstadtIngolstadtPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Ingolstadt (43%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.66 (+1 %)

    Grossaspach – Ingolstadt · 3. Liga

    1 · Grossaspach 30%X 26%43% Ingolstadt · 2

    Analysis: Grossaspach – Ingolstadt

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The bookmaker odds detail ("Betfair offers 1.85 for the over") is not supported by the given facts and should be removed.

    CORRECTED TEXT:

    A single xGA figure stands out: Ingolstadt's defensive solidity with just 0.68 expected goals against per match. This defensive prowess could be the deciding factor against Grossaspach's counterattacking style. Although the home team might enjoy some moments to exploit with their crossing game, the visitors' ability to control possession is likely to stifle these opportunities.

    The numbers suggest a slight upper hand for Ingolstadt. They boast a higher expected goals per match (1.8) compared to Grossaspach's 1.6 and an advantage in xPoints, reflecting underlying performance. Despite Grossaspach's current points edge, this indicates that Ingolstadt's form might be understated by the table. Their possession-based approach could allow them to dictate the game's tempo and create more scoring chances.

    Yet, it's not all one-way traffic. The model gives a 61% chance for over 2.5 goals, suggesting both teams will have offensive opportunities. Grossaspach's ability to counter could serve them well, especially if the visitors overcommit forward. The most likely scorelines — 1-1 at 11% and 1-2 at 9% — imply a competitive match, with both teams expected to find the net (63% both teams to score).

    The sharpest angle for bettors might be the over 2.5 goals at 61%, given the attacking potential on both sides. As Grossaspach aims to capitalize on their counterattacks and Ingolstadt seeks to impose their possession game, expect dynamics that favor goals, even if Ingolstadt appears the more likely winner in this clash.

    Grossaspach
    Form WL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #13xP/match #9Points #9
    Key players
    • Marlon Freddy FaßFxG 0.33 · xT 0.02
    • Tim RossmannLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.01
    • Loris MaierCMxG 0.52 · xT 0.07
    IngolstadtIngolstadt
    Form LWWDD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #2xT #12xP/match #4Points #15
    Key players
    • Keanan BennettsLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.22
    • Lars LokotschFxG 0.50 · xT 0.00
    • Simon LorenzCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    0 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Grossaspach 30% · Draw 26% · Ingolstadt 43%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC Ingolstadt 04Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,52fair 6,23-11 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,41fair 9,56-33 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Grossaspach – Ingolstadt

    Predicted score matrix

    Ingolstadt →
    Grossaspach →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.6%
    0–17.1%
    0–26.5%
    0–33.8%
    0–4+2.4%
    1
    1–05.7%
    1–110.8%
    1–29.2%
    1–35.3%
    1–4+3.4%
    2
    2–04.2%
    2–17.4%
    2–26.4%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+2.4%
    3
    3–02.0%
    3–13.5%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+1.1%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-17%
    4. 4.0-17%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,41–1,74
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,539%
    @2.35
    Over 2,561%
    @1.66EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Ingolstadt or draw (X2)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Ingolstadt or draw (X2)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Marcel Costly to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Loris Maier to score24%
    • Simon Lorenz to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 2.561% probability@1.66PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · GrossaspachX2 · Ingolstadt
    Betsson2.723.502.28
    Pinnacle2.893.682.29

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 26 August — the odds have shortened from 1.74 to 1.66 (−5%).

    1+7 %
    35 %30 %

    2.70 → 2.89

    X+2 %
    28 %23 %

    3.61 → 3.68

    2-3 %
    44 %39 %

    2.37 → 2.29

    Over 2,5-5 %
    58 %53 %

    1.74 → 1.66

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Grossaspach
    Ingolstadt
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Grossaspach (1–2)
    Ingolstadt (3–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Grossaspach
    Antonis Aidonis: 91 passningar, xT 0.23AidonisArbnor Nuraj: 90 passningar, xT 0.14NurajMarius Kunde: 82 passningar, xT 0.04KundeVolkan Celiktas: 73 passningar, xT 0.21CeliktasJan Elias Rahn: 72 passningar, xT 0.35RahnLuca Damiano Molinari: 72 passningar, xT 0.32MolinariLoris Maier: 67 passningar, xT 0.04MaierMaximilian Reule: 51 passningar, xT 0.03ReuleTim Rossmann: 51 passningar, xT -0.01RossmannNiklas Pollex: 32 passningar, xT 0.15PollexMarlon Freddy Faß: 18 passningar, xT 0Faß
    Ingolstadt
    Simon Lorenz: 111 passningar, xT 0.05LorenzGeorgios Antzoulas: 93 passningar, xT 0.31AntzoulasJonas Scholz: 79 passningar, xT 0.08ScholzDavide-Danilo Sekulovic: 72 passningar, xT 0.38SekulovicDavid Klein: 70 passningar, xT 0.11KleinVinko Sapina: 67 passningar, xT 0.08SapinaKeanan Bennetts: 50 passningar, xT 0.37BennettsEmre Gul: 38 passningar, xT 0.81GulFredrik Carlsen: 35 passningar, xT 0.01CarlsenLars Lokotsch: 19 passningar, xT -0.01LokotschObed Chidindu Ugondu: 13 passningar, xT 0.02Ugondu
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Grossaspach
    Antonis Aidonis: 91 passningar, xT 0.23AidonisArbnor Nuraj: 90 passningar, xT 0.14NurajMarius Kunde: 82 passningar, xT 0.04KundeVolkan Celiktas: 73 passningar, xT 0.21CeliktasJan Elias Rahn: 72 passningar, xT 0.35RahnLuca Damiano Molinari: 72 passningar, xT 0.32MolinariLoris Maier: 67 passningar, xT 0.04MaierMaximilian Reule: 51 passningar, xT 0.03ReuleTim Rossmann: 51 passningar, xT -0.01RossmannNiklas Pollex: 32 passningar, xT 0.15PollexMarlon Freddy Faß: 18 passningar, xT 0Faß
    Ingolstadt
    Simon Lorenz: 111 passningar, xT 0.05LorenzGeorgios Antzoulas: 93 passningar, xT 0.31AntzoulasJonas Scholz: 79 passningar, xT 0.08ScholzDavide-Danilo Sekulovic: 72 passningar, xT 0.38SekulovicDavid Klein: 70 passningar, xT 0.11KleinVinko Sapina: 67 passningar, xT 0.08SapinaKeanan Bennetts: 50 passningar, xT 0.37BennettsEmre Gul: 38 passningar, xT 0.81GulFredrik Carlsen: 35 passningar, xT 0.01CarlsenLars Lokotsch: 19 passningar, xT -0.01LokotschObed Chidindu Ugondu: 13 passningar, xT 0.02Ugondu

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGrossaspachIngolstadt
    Points32
    xPoints3.13.7
    xG per match1.61.8
    xGA per match1.60.68
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.280.7
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.360.25
    Playing styleGrossaspachIngolstadt
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.570.62
    xT per match1.11.2
    xTA per match1.40.55
    Won balls, offensive half2530
    Pressing intensity0.230.19
    Pressing efficiency0.360.39
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.360.34
    Entries into the box per match1611
    Entries into the box against126
    Pass completion %0.740.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.73
    Passes per match374351
    Passes against per match291223
    Switches of play per match22.227.1
    Long balls per match3140
    Set piecesGrossaspachIngolstadt
    xG from free kicks0.030.05
    Corners per match4.54.1
    Corners against per match5.53.6
    xG per corner0.10.04
    xGA per corner against0.030.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.670.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.730.43
    OtherGrossaspachIngolstadt
    Throw-in control0.660.69
    The goalkeepersMaximilian Reule (Grossaspach)David Klein (Ingolstadt)
    Saves104
    Save %83%57%
    xG prevented75%45%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Grossaspach
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Ingolstadt
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Grossaspach vs Ingolstadt according to our model?

    The model gives Ingolstadt a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grossaspach 30%, draw 26%, Ingolstadt 43%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.