3. Liga

    Läs på svenska
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IITSG 1899 Hoffenheim IICounter-attacks & crosses
    5–1
    Jahn RegensburgJahn RegensburgLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 2 · Jahn Regensburg (41%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 2.00 (+7 %)

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II – Jahn Regensburg · 3. Liga

    1 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 34%X 25%41% Jahn Regensburg · 2

    Analysis: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II – Jahn Regensburg

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    The model sees Jahn Regensburg as favorites at 41%, but the numbers suggest this matchup is tighter than the odds imply. Hoffenheim II's counter-attack and crossing style could exploit Regensburg's porous 2.1 xGA per match, while the visitors' direct approach may find joy against Hoffenheim's 1.6 xGA. Expected goals sit nearly even at 1.73 to 1.77, indicating potential for both sides to create.

    Hoffenheim II has a knack for turning defense into quick offense with a 0.26 xG within 8 seconds of winning possession, a notable edge over Regensburg's 0.14. This ability to transition rapidly could be pivotal. Defensively, Hoffenheim concedes less in xGA per match, giving them a slight edge there. However, Regensburg's superior xG per match at 1.4 suggests they are more potent going forward.

    The market's lean toward Regensburg might be overlooking Hoffenheim II's ability to capitalize on defensive vulnerabilities. A close game seems likely, with 1-1 as the most probable scoreline at 10%, followed by 1-2 and 2-1 at 8% each. The 68% chance of over 2.5 goals hints at an open contest, supported by the 69% probability both teams find the net.

    Jahn Regensburg's higher xPoints at 2.6 over Hoffenheim II’s 2.3 is a subtle nod in their favor, but Hoffenheim's edge in defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat should not be underestimated. The balance of attack and defense points toward a narrow victory or a draw.

    For those seeking value, Hoffenheim II at 34% probability might offer a tempting angle if the odds tip in their favor. Keep an eye on live odds fluctuation, particularly if Regensburg's price shortens.

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IITSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Form LW
    League ranking xG #18xGA #9xT #16xP/match #14Points #13
    Key players
    • Jakov DedićFxG 0.23 · xT -0.01
    • Florian Peter MichelerLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.18
    • Blessing MakandaRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.00
    Jahn RegensburgJahn Regensburg
    Form WLLWL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #6xP/match #11Points #14
    Key players
    • Lucas HermesFxG 0.22 · xT 0.12
    • David PhilippRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.29
    • Adrian FeinCAMxG 0.52 · xT 0.19
    Final score
    5 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 34% · Draw 25% · Jahn Regensburg 41%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - TSG HoffenheimBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,02fair 6,32-21 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Jahn RegensburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,55fair 6,07-25 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II – Jahn Regensburg

    Predicted score matrix

    Jahn Regensburg →
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.3%
    0–15.1%
    0–24.7%
    0–32.8%
    0–4+1.8%
    1
    1–05.0%
    1–19.5%
    1–28.2%
    1–34.8%
    1–4+3.2%
    2
    2–04.5%
    2–18.0%
    2–27.1%
    2–34.2%
    2–4+2.7%
    3
    3–02.6%
    3–14.6%
    3–24.1%
    3–32.4%
    3–4+1.6%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–22.6%
    4+–31.5%
    4+–4+1.0%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-28%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.0-15%
    Expected goals
    1,73–1,77
    Both teams to score
    69%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,532%
    @3.20EV+3%
    Over 2,568%
    @1.35

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Jahn Regensburg or draw (X2)62%
    • Over 1.5 goals87%

    Combined probability

    54%

    Fair odds

    1.85

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Jahn Regensburg or draw (X2)62%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Philipp Müller to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score69%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Philipp Müller to score26%
    • Benedikt Saller to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 3.554% probability@2.00Paddy PowerEV+7%reference odds
    • Over 3.546% probability@2.22PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    • Under 2.532% probability@3.20Paddy PowerEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIX2 · Jahn Regensburg
    Betsson2.553.652.32
    Paddy Power2.503.802.20
    Pinnacle2.743.832.34

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 08:24

    Odds movement

    10 %
    37 %32 %

    2.74 → 2.74

    X+3 %
    28 %23 %

    3.71 → 3.83

    2+2 %
    43 %38 %

    2.29 → 2.34

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Jahn Regensburg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II (4–3)
    Jahn Regensburg (5–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Sean Dulic: 102 passningar, xT 0.15DulicValentin Lassig: 101 passningar, xT 0.08LassigMatthew Moore: 81 passningar, xT 0.4MooreLúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson: 67 passningar, xT 0.07PeterssonFlorian Peter Micheler: 40 passningar, xT 0.31MichelerDiren Dagdeviren: 31 passningar, xT 0.03DagdevirenTristan Spranger: 28 passningar, xT 0.08SprangerBlessing Makanda: 27 passningar, xT -0.01MakandaJuan Tiago Esteban Poller: 25 passningar, xT 0.06PollerKlaus Gjasula: 24 passningar, xT 0.05GjasulaYasin Zor: 23 passningar, xT 0.06Zor
    Jahn Regensburg
    Leopold Wurm: 108 passningar, xT 0.08WurmAdrian Fein: 85 passningar, xT 0.25FeinFelix Strauß: 82 passningar, xT 0.1StraußHannes Steffen Hermann: 65 passningar, xT 0.04HermannOscar Schönfelder: 63 passningar, xT 0.75SchönfelderBenedikt Bauer: 38 passningar, xT 0.3BauerNassim Boujellab: 31 passningar, xT 0.06BoujellabErik Majetschak: 29 passningar, xT -0.02MajetschakDavid Philipp: 28 passningar, xT 0.53PhilippSascha Hingerl: 19 passningar, xT -0.01HingerlLucas Hermes: 17 passningar, xT 0.08Hermes
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Sean Dulic: 102 passningar, xT 0.15DulicValentin Lassig: 101 passningar, xT 0.08LassigMatthew Moore: 81 passningar, xT 0.4MooreLúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson: 67 passningar, xT 0.07PeterssonFlorian Peter Micheler: 40 passningar, xT 0.31MichelerDiren Dagdeviren: 31 passningar, xT 0.03DagdevirenTristan Spranger: 28 passningar, xT 0.08SprangerBlessing Makanda: 27 passningar, xT -0.01MakandaJuan Tiago Esteban Poller: 25 passningar, xT 0.06PollerKlaus Gjasula: 24 passningar, xT 0.05GjasulaYasin Zor: 23 passningar, xT 0.06Zor
    Jahn Regensburg
    Leopold Wurm: 108 passningar, xT 0.08WurmAdrian Fein: 85 passningar, xT 0.25FeinFelix Strauß: 82 passningar, xT 0.1StraußHannes Steffen Hermann: 65 passningar, xT 0.04HermannOscar Schönfelder: 63 passningar, xT 0.75SchönfelderBenedikt Bauer: 38 passningar, xT 0.3BauerNassim Boujellab: 31 passningar, xT 0.06BoujellabErik Majetschak: 29 passningar, xT -0.02MajetschakDavid Philipp: 28 passningar, xT 0.53PhilippSascha Hingerl: 19 passningar, xT -0.01HingerlLucas Hermes: 17 passningar, xT 0.08Hermes

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIJahn Regensburg
    Points33
    xPoints2.32.6
    xG per match0.991.4
    xGA per match1.62.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.260.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.12
    Playing styleTSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIJahn Regensburg
    Build-up efficiency0.250.3
    Field tilt0.490.35
    xT per match0.621.3
    xTA per match1.61.2
    Won balls, offensive half2323
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.390.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.360.21
    Entries into the box per match911
    Entries into the box against1515
    Pass completion %0.740.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.69
    Passes per match300294
    Passes against per match287445
    Switches of play per match18.920.9
    Long balls per match2436
    Set piecesTSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIJahn Regensburg
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match3.52
    Corners against per match67.5
    xG per corner00.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.140.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.5
    OtherTSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIJahn Regensburg
    Throw-in control0.830.63
    The goalkeepersLúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II)Felix Strauß (Jahn Regensburg)
    Saves85
    Save %73%100%
    xG prevented72%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Jahn Regensburg
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II vs Jahn Regensburg according to our model?

    The model gives Jahn Regensburg a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 34%, draw 25%, Jahn Regensburg 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 69% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.