3. Liga21°8,0 mm25 km/h

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    Fortuna DüsseldorfFortuna DüsseldorfCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–0
    VfB Stuttgart IIVfB Stuttgart IIPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Fortuna Düsseldorf (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · VfB Stuttgart II @ 4.75 (+35 %)

    Fortuna Düsseldorf – VfB Stuttgart II · 3. Liga

    1 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%X 24%28% VfB Stuttgart II · 2

    Analysis: Fortuna Düsseldorf – VfB Stuttgart II

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: When Fortuna Düsseldorf takes the field against VfB Stuttgart II, the counter-attack and cross-heavy approach will clash with a possession-focused, high-pressing style. This matchup underscores a key tension: whether Stuttgart II's relentless goal-scoring streak, having found the net in 14 straight league games, will continue against a Düsseldorf side boasting the better defensive numbers of the two.

    The numbers suggest a tightly contested affair. Düsseldorf might seem favored by the model at 48%, but Stuttgart II's knack for scoring and their current points edge can't be ignored. Düsseldorf's xPoints advantage of 2.0 to Stuttgart II's 1.4 hints at potential for the hosts, yet their xG of 1.2 per match is slightly overshadowed by the visitors' 1.4. This disparity underscores Stuttgart II's offensive resilience, even if their defense, with an xGA of 2.1, could offer Düsseldorf chances to exploit.

    With an over 2.5 goals probability pegged at 60%, and both teams likely to score at 63%, the prospect for goals is high despite the expected rain, which should temper the attacking fluidity somewhat. A scoreline of 1-1 (11%) leads the probability charts, but the slight edge towards 2-1 (9%) for Düsseldorf suggests a narrow victory isn’t out of reach, especially if they can capitalize on Stuttgart II's defensive fragility.

    For punters seeking an edge, the away win at odds of 4.6 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a compelling case. The model rates the visitors' chances at 28%, offering a 31% value edge. It’s a calculated gamble, but if Stuttgart II’s scoring streak persists, it might just pay off.

    Fortuna DüsseldorfFortuna Düsseldorf
    Form LL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #11xT #3xP/match #16Points #18
    Key players
    • Fabian SchleusenerFxG 0.40 · xT 0.20
    • Eric HottmannFxG 0.18 · xT 0.16
    • Steven Ako van der SlootRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.41
    VfB Stuttgart IIVfB Stuttgart II
    Form WLLWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #18xT #5xP/match #19Points #11
    Key players
    • Jarzinho MalangaLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
    • Alexander GroissCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
    • Nicolas SessaCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.35
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 48% · Draw 24% · VfB Stuttgart II 28%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - VfB Stuttgart Am.Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,30fair 8,39+35 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Fortuna DüsseldorfBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,65fair 7,08-48 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Fortuna Düsseldorf – VfB Stuttgart II

    Predicted score matrix

    VfB Stuttgart II →
    Fortuna Düsseldorf →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–16.3%
    0–24.9%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–06.9%
    1–111.0%
    1–28.0%
    1–34.0%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–05.8%
    2–18.7%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.7%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–22.1%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-27%
    Expected goals
    1,63–1,49
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.75EV+4%
    Over 2,560%
    @1.44

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Fortuna Düsseldorf to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.97

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Fortuna Düsseldorf to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Cedric Jan Itten to score31%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Cedric Jan Itten to score31%
    • Samuele Di Benedetto to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · VfB Stuttgart II28% probability@4.75Paddy PowerEV+35%reference odds
    • 2 · VfB Stuttgart II28% probability@4.60BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
    • 2 · VfB Stuttgart II28% probability@4.60BetssonEV+31%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Fortuna DüsseldorfX2 · VfB Stuttgart II
    Betsafe1.55
    EV+ 1%
    4.30
    EV+ 31%
    4.60
    Betsson1.55
    EV+ 1%
    4.30
    EV+ 31%
    4.60
    Nordicbet1.55
    EV+ 1%
    4.30
    EV+ 31%
    4.60
    Paddy Power1.50
    EV+ 2%
    4.33
    EV+ 35%
    4.75
    Pinnacle1.764.14
    EV+ 14%
    4.01

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 10:29

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    57 %52 %

    1.74 → 1.76

    X+2 %
    25 %20 %

    4.07 → 4.14

    2+7 %
    26 %21 %

    3.76 → 4.01

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • VfB Stuttgart II have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Fortuna Düsseldorf
    VfB Stuttgart II
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Fortuna Düsseldorf (1–4)
    VfB Stuttgart II (4–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Fortuna Düsseldorf
    Tim Oberdorf: 104 passningar, xT 0.13OberdorfSteven Ako van der Sloot: 73 passningar, xT 0.78SlootLasse Finn Rieß: 68 passningar, xT 0.09RießFelix Constantin Meiser: 59 passningar, xT 0.06MeiserMatthias Zimmermann: 53 passningar, xT 0.33ZimmermannDominique Heintz: 47 passningar, xT 0.01HeintzElias Arden: 38 passningar, xT 0.07ArdenJorrit Petrus Carolina Hendrix: 33 passningar, xT 0.17HendrixMarcel Benger: 29 passningar, xT 0.01BengerJomaine Ellay Consbruch: 27 passningar, xT 0ConsbruchAnas Slimani: 26 passningar, xT 0.16Slimani
    VfB Stuttgart II
    Alexander Groiss: 120 passningar, xT 0.41GroissMaximilian Herwerth: 104 passningar, xT 0.13HerwerthNicolas Sessa: 76 passningar, xT 0.57SessaJarzinho Malanga: 67 passningar, xT 0.07MalangaDominik Nothnagel: 66 passningar, xT 0.39NothnagelJerik von der Felsen: 60 passningar, xT 0.1FelsenDavid Preu: 60 passningar, xT 0.25PreuAntonijo Janjić: 47 passningar, xT 0.13JanjićErtugrul Yigit: 34 passningar, xT 0.02YigitJulian Luers: 30 passningar, xT -0.01LuersJordan Aleksander Majchrzak: 29 passningar, xT 0.38Majchrzak
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Fortuna Düsseldorf
    Tim Oberdorf: 104 passningar, xT 0.13OberdorfSteven Ako van der Sloot: 73 passningar, xT 0.78SlootLasse Finn Rieß: 68 passningar, xT 0.09RießFelix Constantin Meiser: 59 passningar, xT 0.06MeiserMatthias Zimmermann: 53 passningar, xT 0.33ZimmermannDominique Heintz: 47 passningar, xT 0.01HeintzElias Arden: 38 passningar, xT 0.07ArdenJorrit Petrus Carolina Hendrix: 33 passningar, xT 0.17HendrixMarcel Benger: 29 passningar, xT 0.01BengerJomaine Ellay Consbruch: 27 passningar, xT 0ConsbruchAnas Slimani: 26 passningar, xT 0.16Slimani
    VfB Stuttgart II
    Alexander Groiss: 120 passningar, xT 0.41GroissMaximilian Herwerth: 104 passningar, xT 0.13HerwerthNicolas Sessa: 76 passningar, xT 0.57SessaJarzinho Malanga: 67 passningar, xT 0.07MalangaDominik Nothnagel: 66 passningar, xT 0.39NothnagelJerik von der Felsen: 60 passningar, xT 0.1FelsenDavid Preu: 60 passningar, xT 0.25PreuAntonijo Janjić: 47 passningar, xT 0.13JanjićErtugrul Yigit: 34 passningar, xT 0.02YigitJulian Luers: 30 passningar, xT -0.01LuersJordan Aleksander Majchrzak: 29 passningar, xT 0.38Majchrzak

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFortuna DüsseldorfVfB Stuttgart II
    Points03
    xPoints21.4
    xG per match1.21.4
    xGA per match1.62.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.370.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.40.03
    Playing styleFortuna DüsseldorfVfB Stuttgart II
    Build-up efficiency0.340.32
    Field tilt0.540.67
    xT per match1.51.4
    xTA per match0.980.59
    Won balls, offensive half2025
    Pressing intensity0.210.2
    Pressing efficiency0.310.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.170.21
    Entries into the box per match1515
    Entries into the box against139
    Pass completion %0.740.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.640.71
    Passes per match340411
    Passes against per match269276
    Switches of play per match23.625.5
    Long balls per match3234
    Set piecesFortuna DüsseldorfVfB Stuttgart II
    xG from free kicks0.060.06
    Corners per match5.97.1
    Corners against per match35.6
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.09
    First touch, offensive corners %0.580.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.830.64
    OtherFortuna DüsseldorfVfB Stuttgart II
    Throw-in control0.680.76
    The goalkeepersLasse Finn Rieß (Fortuna Düsseldorf)Jerik von der Felsen (VfB Stuttgart II)
    Saves56
    Save %56%60%
    xG prevented63%48%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Fortuna Düsseldorf
    Fixtures, form & tips
    VfB Stuttgart II
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfB Stuttgart II according to our model?

    The model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%, draw 24%, VfB Stuttgart II 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.