Alemannia Aachen vs Viktoria Köln Prediction: Home win 43% (10 Oct 2026)

3. Liga10 October 202612°4,5 mm29 km/h

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Alemannia AachenPossession control

Viktoria KölnPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Alemannia Aachen (43%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.65 (+1 %)

1 · Alemannia Aachen 43%X 26%31% Viktoria Köln · 2

43%

26%

31%

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Analysis: Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Köln

Erik Lindberg · 2 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Four matches, two wins apiece. That's the short head-to-head history between Alemannia Aachen and Viktoria Köln since 2024. With such a small sample, the past is not a reliable guide here — form and expected goals tell us more. As the two sides prepare to clash, the visitors carry a notable momentum, arriving on the back of three consecutive victories. Yet, Aachen has a slight edge in the model probabilities, favored at 43% to take the win.

In terms of form, Viktoria Köln's recent streak might catch your eye. However, Aachen's controlled style, mirrored by their guests, promises a tactical battle rather than a goal-filled spectacle. The expected goals (xG) reflect this nuanced contest: Aachen at 1.75, Köln at 1.42. Despite Köln's superior xG per match (1.9 to Aachen's 1.6), the hosts have been more parsimonious at the back, conceding an average of 1.1 xGA compared to Köln's 1.2.

The model suggests a tilt towards a 1-1 stalemate as the most likely outcome (11%), with 2-1 to Aachen (9%) following closely. While over 2.5 goals appears at 61%, the expected rain at 4.5 mm could dampen scoring, though this is already accounted for in the model's numbers. Both teams' penchant for possession control might further stifle attacking opportunities, making the lower end of goal expectations plausible.

The model's lean towards Aachen (43% vs. 31% for Köln, with 26% for a draw) reflects a solid assessment given Aachen's slight analytical edge. The dry suggestion? A 2-1 win for Aachen is within reach, with an eye towards the under, despite the numerical preference for goals.

Alemannia Aachen

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #10xP/match #4Points #6

Key players

Jonas OehmichenCAMxG 0.31 · xT 0.28
Louis KosterFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
Lukas ScepanikRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.15

Viktoria Köln

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #16xP/match #11Points #3

Key players

David OttoFxG 0.67 · xT 0.00
Tobias EisenhuthCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
Tim KlossCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Köln

Predicted score matrix

Viktoria Köln →

Alemannia Aachen →

0–04.5%

0–15.6%

0–24.2%

0–32.0%

0–4+1.0%

1–07.1%

1–110.7%

1–27.4%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.5%

2–19.1%

2–26.5%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.8%

3–15.3%

3–23.8%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.9%

4+–02.5%

4+–13.5%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,75–1,42

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.52

Over 2,561%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Alemannia Aachen or draw (1X)69%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Alemannia Aachen or draw (1X)69%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Mika Schröers to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Mika Schröers to score22%
Danilo Wiebe to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.561% probability@1.65BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
Under 3.561% probability@1.65NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Alemannia Aachen	X	2 · Viktoria Köln
Betfair Exchange	1.12	1.13	1.12
Betsafe	2.02	3.65	3.10
Nordicbet	2.02	3.65	3.10

Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Alemannia Aachen 2Draw 0Viktoria Köln 2

Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

Key facts

Viktoria Koln come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Alemannia Aachen

Viktoria Köln

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Alemannia Aachen (11–8)

Viktoria Köln (19–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Alemannia Aachen

Viktoria Köln

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Alemannia Aachen

Viktoria Köln

The teams in numbers

Performance	Alemannia Aachen	Viktoria Köln
Points	11	15
xPoints	11.7	10
xG per match	1.6	1.9
xGA per match	1.1	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.21

Playing style	Alemannia Aachen	Viktoria Köln
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.61	0.57
xT per match	1.1	0.95
xTA per match	1	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	25	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.32
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	13	8
Pass completion %	0.73	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.8
Passes per match	338	500
Passes against per match	294	283
Switches of play per match	16.1	18.2
Long balls per match	25	30

Set pieces	Alemannia Aachen	Viktoria Köln
xG from free kicks	0.14	0
Corners per match	4.7	5.2
Corners against per match	2.8	5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.43

Other	Alemannia Aachen	Viktoria Köln
Throw-in control	0.72	0.79

The goalkeepers	Stefan Bajić (Alemannia Aachen)	Arne Schulz (Viktoria Köln)
Saves	16	11
Save %	67%	55%
xG prevented	64%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Alemannia Aachen

Fixtures, form & tips

Viktoria Köln

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Alemannia Aachen vs Viktoria Köln according to our model?

The model gives Alemannia Aachen a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alemannia Aachen 43%, draw 26%, Viktoria Köln 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.