3. Liga12°3,9 mm26 km/h

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    SV MeppenSV MeppenPossession control
    vs
    VfB Stuttgart IIVfB Stuttgart IIPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · VfB Stuttgart II (38%)Soft draw

    SV Meppen vs VfB Stuttgart II · 3. Liga

    1 · SV Meppen 36%X 26%38% VfB Stuttgart II · 2

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    Analysis: SV Meppen – VfB Stuttgart II

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    VfB Stuttgart II holds a slight edge with a 38% probability of winning, just edging out Meppen at 36%. The betting model leans towards the visitors, but the game is finely balanced. Meppen's losing streak of four matches contrasts sharply with their stronger underlying metrics. Their xG and xGA numbers both suggest they should be performing better, indicating potential value overlooked by the market.

    Despite Stuttgart II's ten points to Meppen's six, the hosts boast better xPoints and a more efficient xG profile. Meppen's 1.6 xG per match shows they're creating quality opportunities, while Stuttgart II's defensive frailty with an xGA of 2.0 could be their undoing. The match is expected to see goals, with a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% probability of both teams scoring. Rainfall is expected to play a role, potentially dampening the goal count slightly, though this has already been factored into the numbers.

    Bookmakers may not fully appreciate Meppen's underlying strengths. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 point to a closely contested affair. However, the sharpest angle comes from BetVictor offering 2.90 for VfB Stuttgart II to win, aligning with the model's slight lean but providing a worthwhile edge.

    SV MeppenSV Meppen
    Form WLLLL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #13xP/match #7Points #18
    Key players
    • Luca PrasseRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.20
    • Nikell Paul TougloCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
    • Dominique DomroseRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
    VfB Stuttgart IIVfB Stuttgart II
    Form LWLLD
    League ranking xG #20xGA #21xT #12xP/match #22Points #10
    Key players
    • Tim van der LeijFxG 0.28 · xT -0.03
    • Oliver RölkeFxG 0.39 · xT -0.02
    • Joyeux Masanka BungiLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13

    Match prediction: SV Meppen – VfB Stuttgart II

    Predicted score matrix

    VfB Stuttgart II →
    SV Meppen →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.0%
    0–16.2%
    0–25.8%
    0–33.4%
    0–4+2.2%
    1
    1–05.4%
    1–110.3%
    1–28.8%
    1–35.2%
    1–4+3.4%
    2
    2–04.3%
    2–17.7%
    2–26.8%
    2–34.0%
    2–4+2.6%
    3
    3–02.2%
    3–13.9%
    3–23.5%
    3–32.0%
    3–4+1.3%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–12.1%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.0-16%
    Expected goals
    1,53–1,77
    Both teams to score
    65%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,536%
    @2.62
    Over 2,564%
    @1.44

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance VfB Stuttgart II or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.77

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance VfB Stuttgart II or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Oliver Rölke to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score65%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Oliver Issa Schmitt to score27%
    • Ersin Zehir to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · VfB Stuttgart II38% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
    • 2 · VfB Stuttgart II38% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · SV MeppenX2 · VfB Stuttgart II
    Betfair Exchange1.121.131.12
    Betsafe2.083.60
    EV+ 12%
    2.95
    Nordicbet2.083.60
    EV+ 12%
    2.95

    Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • SV Meppen have lost 4 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    SV Meppen
    VfB Stuttgart II
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    SV Meppen (8–15)
    VfB Stuttgart II (15–17)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    SV Meppen
    Dominique Domrose: 157 passningar, xT 1.06DomroseStefan Rankić: 153 passningar, xT 0.36RankićNiclas Tibor Nadj: 125 passningar, xT 0.24NadjThorben-Johannes Deters: 122 passningar, xT 0.35DetersJulius Pünt: 117 passningar, xT 0.21PüntLuis Sprekelmeyer: 102 passningar, xT 0.31SprekelmeyerTobias Mißner: 100 passningar, xT 0.26MißnerErsin Zehir: 95 passningar, xT 0.13ZehirNikell Paul Touglo: 84 passningar, xT 0.31TougloOliver Issa Schmitt: 58 passningar, xT 0.62SchmittLuca Prasse: 40 passningar, xT 0.25Prasse
    VfB Stuttgart II
    Alexander Groiss: 248 passningar, xT 0.65GroissDominik Nothnagel: 175 passningar, xT 0.42NothnagelJoyeux Masanka Bungi: 155 passningar, xT 0.28BungiVeit Stange: 153 passningar, xT 0.37StangeNicolas Sessa: 146 passningar, xT 0.41SessaLauri Lukas Penna: 141 passningar, xT 0.38PennaMaximilian Herwerth: 133 passningar, xT 0.18HerwerthJerik von der Felsen: 124 passningar, xT 0.06FelsenDavid Preu: 115 passningar, xT 0.2PreuTim Kohler: 115 passningar, xT 0.09KohlerJulian Luers: 90 passningar, xT 0.1Luers
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    SV Meppen
    Dominique Domrose: 157 passningar, xT 1.06DomroseStefan Rankić: 153 passningar, xT 0.36RankićNiclas Tibor Nadj: 125 passningar, xT 0.24NadjThorben-Johannes Deters: 122 passningar, xT 0.35DetersJulius Pünt: 117 passningar, xT 0.21PüntLuis Sprekelmeyer: 102 passningar, xT 0.31SprekelmeyerTobias Mißner: 100 passningar, xT 0.26MißnerErsin Zehir: 95 passningar, xT 0.13ZehirNikell Paul Touglo: 84 passningar, xT 0.31TougloOliver Issa Schmitt: 58 passningar, xT 0.62SchmittLuca Prasse: 40 passningar, xT 0.25Prasse
    VfB Stuttgart II
    Alexander Groiss: 248 passningar, xT 0.65GroissDominik Nothnagel: 175 passningar, xT 0.42NothnagelJoyeux Masanka Bungi: 155 passningar, xT 0.28BungiVeit Stange: 153 passningar, xT 0.37StangeNicolas Sessa: 146 passningar, xT 0.41SessaLauri Lukas Penna: 141 passningar, xT 0.38PennaMaximilian Herwerth: 133 passningar, xT 0.18HerwerthJerik von der Felsen: 124 passningar, xT 0.06FelsenDavid Preu: 115 passningar, xT 0.2PreuTim Kohler: 115 passningar, xT 0.09KohlerJulian Luers: 90 passningar, xT 0.1Luers

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSV MeppenVfB Stuttgart II
    Points610
    xPoints10.85.3
    xG per match1.61.1
    xGA per match1.62
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.340.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.19
    Playing styleSV MeppenVfB Stuttgart II
    Build-up efficiency0.330.32
    Field tilt0.40.64
    xT per match1.11.1
    xTA per match1.10.88
    Won balls, offensive half2023
    Pressing intensity0.220.21
    Pressing efficiency0.270.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.23
    Entries into the box per match1112
    Entries into the box against1410
    Pass completion %0.680.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.72
    Passes per match264400
    Passes against per match354272
    Switches of play per match1824.1
    Long balls per match3632
    Set piecesSV MeppenVfB Stuttgart II
    xG from free kicks0.050.08
    Corners per match6.24
    Corners against per match4.85.1
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.510.41
    First touch, defensive corners %0.550.68
    OtherSV MeppenVfB Stuttgart II
    Throw-in control0.760.73
    The goalkeepersJulius Pünt (SV Meppen)Jerik von der Felsen (VfB Stuttgart II)
    Saves2125
    Save %58%61%
    xG prevented55%36%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    SV Meppen
    Fixtures, form & tips
    VfB Stuttgart II
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins SV Meppen vs VfB Stuttgart II according to our model?

    The model gives VfB Stuttgart II a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: SV Meppen 36%, draw 26%, VfB Stuttgart II 38%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.