01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Duisburg to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
3. Liga12°22,2 mm20 km/h
Läs på svenska
DuisburgBalanced & physicalvs
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Duisburg (61%)
Duisburg vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II · 3. Liga
1 · Duisburg 61%X 22%17% TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II · 2
61%
22%
17%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Duisburg – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT CONTAINS ERRORS:
MSV Duisburg's imposing 77% home win rate across their all-time home matches (22 played) makes them the clear frontrunners against TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II. The model gives a solid 61% probability to Duisburg, underpinned by their superior xG (2.1) compared to Hoffenheim II's 1.7. Despite a balanced playing style, Duisburg's ability to convert chances has seen them score in eight straight league games, a streak reflecting not just consistency but a palpable threat.
Hoffenheim II, despite their focus on possession, has struggled to convert play into points, evident from their meager six points and low xPoints of 5.3. The visitors' xGA of 1.6 per match, combined with Duisburg's expected goals of 2.28 for this clash, highlights the defensive frailties that could be exploited by a physical Duisburg side. While the likely scorelines suggest a 2-1 or 2-0 outcome, the expected rain could dampen attacking exploits, though it's already factored into the 65% probability for over 2.5 goals.
Evaluating the matchup, there's value in backing Duisburg, considering their dominance at home and Hoffenheim II's vulnerabilities. The home side's attacking momentum suggests a tilt towards a 2-1 victory, with over 2.5 goals in play, despite the weather's goal-suppressing potential.
DuisburgForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #11xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.70 · xT -0.02
- Peter RemmertFxG 1.04 · xT 0.02
- Can Beklan CoşkunLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIForm LWWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #9xP/match #13Points #16
Key players
- Ayoube Amaimouni-EchghouyabRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
- Deniz ZeitlerLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.09
- Luka DjuricCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Duisburg – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
Predicted score matrix
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II →
Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.8%
0–13.5%
0–22.0%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–07.7%
1–18.8%
1–24.6%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.1%
2–19.8%
2–25.2%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–06.9%
3–17.4%
3–24.0%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–06.7%
4+–17.2%
4+–23.9%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.2-09%
- 3.1-19%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,28–1,07
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
@2.62
Over 2,565%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Duisburg to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Jakob Bookjans to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Jakob Bookjans to score24%
- Sean Dulic to be booked22%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Duisburg | X | 2 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.12 |
| Betsafe | 1.52 | 4.15 | 5.10 |
| Nordicbet | 1.52 | 4.15 | 5.10 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Key facts
- MSV Duisburg have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- MSV Duisburg win 77% of their home matches all-time (22 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Duisburg
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
Duisburg (19–7)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II (9–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Duisburg
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Duisburg
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Duisburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 6 |
| xPoints | 14.6 | 5.3 |
| xG per match | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 0.91 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Duisburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 352 | 362 |
| Passes against per match | 387 | 266 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.4 | 20.5 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Duisburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.19 |
| Corners per match | 7 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 2.8 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.56 |
| Other | Duisburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Maximilian Braune (Duisburg) | Lúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 12 |
| Save % | 70% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 70% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Preussen Münster – Rot-Weiss Essen9 October 2026
- Grossaspach – Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026
- Wurzburger Kickers – Hansa Rostock10 October 2026
- SV Meppen – VfB Stuttgart II10 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Köln10 October 2026
- SC Fortuna Koln – Saarbrücken10 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Wehen Wiesbaden10 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Verl10 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – SV Havelse10 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Duisburg vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II according to our model?
The model gives Duisburg a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Duisburg 61%, draw 22%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.