3. Liga10°3,3 mm13 km/h

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    Jahn RegensburgJahn RegensburgLow block & direct
    vs
    SV HavelseSV HavelseCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Jahn Regensburg (58%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.68 (+6 %)

    Jahn Regensburg vs SV Havelse · 3. Liga

    1 · Jahn Regensburg 58%X 22%19% SV Havelse · 2

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    Analysis: Jahn Regensburg – SV Havelse

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Both teams enter the match with distinct tactical profiles that could define the evening. Jahn Regensburg, playing with a low defensive line and direct attacking style, will likely focus on quick transitions to unsettle SV Havelse. On the other hand, Havelse's counter-attacking approach, relying heavily on crosses, suggests they will aim to exploit any space left behind by Regensburg's adventurous forward play. This tactical juxtaposition sets the stage for a potentially intriguing match.

    Jahn Regensburg seems to have the upper hand, as indicated by their superior expected goals (xG) of 2.19 compared to Havelse's 0.94. This offensive edge is further supported by Regensburg's home advantage, reflected in the model's 58% win probability for the hosts. However, with both teams having an identical xGA of 1.8 per match, Regensburg's porous defense might offer Havelse some opportunities. This balance hints at a competitive game, but one that leans in favor of the hosts.

    The most probable scorelines—2-0, 2-1, and 1-0—underscore Regensburg's potential to dominate. However, the 54% likelihood of both teams scoring suggests that Havelse might still find a breakthrough. Despite the forecasted rain, which could dampen attacking play, the model still sees a 60% probability for over 2.5 goals. This indicates that the weather's impact has been considered, yet the expectation remains for an open game.

    With their edge in expected goals and home advantage, backing the hosts appears a sensible play. As the numbers suggest, a 2-0 win for Jahn Regensburg aligns well with the statistical outlook, offering a sound betting angle for the match.

    Jahn RegensburgJahn Regensburg
    Form LLDLD
    League ranking xG #13xGA #20xT #5xP/match #15Points #19
    Key players
    • Lucas HermesFxG 0.40 · xT 0.09
    • Erik MajetschakFxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
    • Adrian FeinCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.21
    SV HavelseSV Havelse
    Form WLDLL
    League ranking xG #21xGA #19xT #20xP/match #18Points #21
    Key players
    • Marko IlicFxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
    • John Xaver PosseltFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
    • Arlind RexhepiFxG 0.08 · xT 0.12

    Match prediction: Jahn Regensburg – SV Havelse

    Predicted score matrix

    SV Havelse →
    Jahn Regensburg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–13.9%
    0–21.9%
    0–30.6%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–09.3%
    1–19.3%
    1–24.2%
    1–31.3%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.5%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–07.7%
    3–17.2%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–07.0%
    4+–16.5%
    4+–23.1%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-19%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,19–0,94
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.68EV+6%
    Over 2,560%
    @1.42

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Jahn Regensburg to win58%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Jahn Regensburg to win58%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • John Xaver Posselt to score37%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • John Xaver Posselt to score37%
    • Johann Berger to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.540% probability@2.68BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • Under 2.540% probability@2.68NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
    • Under 3.562% probability@1.70BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Jahn RegensburgX2 · SV Havelse
    Betfair Exchange1.131.131.12
    Betsafe1.484.40
    EV+ 1%
    5.30
    Nordicbet1.484.40
    EV+ 1%
    5.30

    Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jahn Regensburg
    SV Havelse
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jahn Regensburg (13–17)
    SV Havelse (10–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jahn Regensburg
    Adrian Fein: 245 passningar, xT 0.72FeinFelix Strauß: 225 passningar, xT 0.33StraußLeopold Wurm: 219 passningar, xT 0.62WurmHannes Steffen Hermann: 144 passningar, xT 0.19HermannErik Majetschak: 131 passningar, xT 0.2MajetschakOscar Schönfelder: 123 passningar, xT 0.88SchönfelderBenedikt Bauer: 98 passningar, xT 0.41BauerSascha Hingerl: 92 passningar, xT 0.37HingerlNassim Boujellab: 89 passningar, xT 0.66BoujellabMalte Karbstein: 88 passningar, xT 0.14KarbsteinNicolas-Bernd Oliveira Kisilowski: 61 passningar, xT 0.25Kisilowski
    SV Havelse
    Semi Belkahia: 179 passningar, xT 0.06BelkahiaDennis Duah: 178 passningar, xT 0.21DuahJohann Berger: 169 passningar, xT 0.6BergerKevin Schumacher: 149 passningar, xT 0.46SchumacherJesse Edem Tugbenyo: 134 passningar, xT 0.19TugbenyoEric Voufack: 123 passningar, xT 0.52VoufackYannick Mausehund: 119 passningar, xT 0.12MausehundOmer Hanin: 108 passningar, xT 0.11HaninTom Opitz: 59 passningar, xT 0.03OpitzDonald Nduka: 56 passningar, xT 0.04NdukaLeon Sommer: 49 passningar, xT 0.72Sommer
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jahn Regensburg
    Adrian Fein: 245 passningar, xT 0.72FeinFelix Strauß: 225 passningar, xT 0.33StraußLeopold Wurm: 219 passningar, xT 0.62WurmHannes Steffen Hermann: 144 passningar, xT 0.19HermannErik Majetschak: 131 passningar, xT 0.2MajetschakOscar Schönfelder: 123 passningar, xT 0.88SchönfelderBenedikt Bauer: 98 passningar, xT 0.41BauerSascha Hingerl: 92 passningar, xT 0.37HingerlNassim Boujellab: 89 passningar, xT 0.66BoujellabMalte Karbstein: 88 passningar, xT 0.14KarbsteinNicolas-Bernd Oliveira Kisilowski: 61 passningar, xT 0.25Kisilowski
    SV Havelse
    Semi Belkahia: 179 passningar, xT 0.06BelkahiaDennis Duah: 178 passningar, xT 0.21DuahJohann Berger: 169 passningar, xT 0.6BergerKevin Schumacher: 149 passningar, xT 0.46SchumacherJesse Edem Tugbenyo: 134 passningar, xT 0.19TugbenyoEric Voufack: 123 passningar, xT 0.52VoufackYannick Mausehund: 119 passningar, xT 0.12MausehundOmer Hanin: 108 passningar, xT 0.11HaninTom Opitz: 59 passningar, xT 0.03OpitzDonald Nduka: 56 passningar, xT 0.04NdukaLeon Sommer: 49 passningar, xT 0.72Sommer

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJahn RegensburgSV Havelse
    Points54
    xPoints8.68
    xG per match1.40.95
    xGA per match1.81.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.03
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.29
    Playing styleJahn RegensburgSV Havelse
    Build-up efficiency0.30.28
    Field tilt0.490.3
    xT per match1.20.81
    xTA per match1.21.5
    Won balls, offensive half2618
    Pressing intensity0.220.23
    Pressing efficiency0.280.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.22
    Entries into the box per match1310
    Entries into the box against1418
    Pass completion %0.730.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.68
    Passes per match321282
    Passes against per match397389
    Switches of play per match22.819.9
    Long balls per match3331
    Set piecesJahn RegensburgSV Havelse
    xG from free kicks0.020.1
    Corners per match4.13.6
    Corners against per match4.15.3
    xG per corner0.020.04
    xGA per corner against0.060.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.36
    First touch, defensive corners %0.430.54
    OtherJahn RegensburgSV Havelse
    Throw-in control0.70.72
    The goalkeepersHannes Steffen Hermann (Jahn Regensburg)Omer Hanin (SV Havelse)
    Saves1523
    Save %47%70%
    xG prevented29%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jahn Regensburg
    Fixtures, form & tips
    SV Havelse
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jahn Regensburg vs SV Havelse according to our model?

    The model gives Jahn Regensburg a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jahn Regensburg 58%, draw 22%, SV Havelse 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.