01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hansa Rostock to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
3. Liga8°4,3 mm23 km/h
Läs på svenska
Hansa RostockPossession control0–2
MeppenPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Hansa Rostock (63%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.75 (+6 %)
Hansa Rostock vs Meppen · 3. Liga
1 · Hansa Rostock 63%X 21%16% Meppen · 2
63%
21%
16%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hansa Rostock vs Meppen (3. Liga, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Hansa Rostock win 63%, draw 21%, Meppen win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Hansa Rostock 2.20, Meppen 0.98. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Hansa Rostock or draw 84%, Meppen or draw 37%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: Hansa Rostock – Meppen
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Twelve points versus six: Hansa Rostock's superior form this season could well be the decisive factor in their clash with SV Meppen. While both teams favor possession control, the hosts have turned their dominance into more tangible results. The model's probabilities reflect this gap, giving Rostock a commanding 63% chance of victory compared to Meppen's modest 16%.
Meppen's recent struggles, with four consecutive losses, only heighten the sense of urgency for them, but this desperation might not suffice against a well-drilled Rostock team. The expected goals (xG) metrics further show Rostock's edge, predicting 2.20 xG for them compared to Meppen's 0.98. This statistical forecast aligns with the most likely scorelines, notably two plausible 2-0 and 2-1 victories for the home side, both given a 10% chance.
Despite the damp conditions forecasted, which typically suggests a lean towards fewer goals, the model still anticipates a 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals. This figure is partly driven by the teams' playing style and Rostock's ability to convert possession into scoring opportunities. Yet, there's an interesting betting angle in considering under 3.5 goals, with value highlighted by both Betsafe and Nordicbet at odds of 1.75, offering a 6% edge according to the model.
The narrative of this matchup is Hansa Rostock's to control, particularly given the frailty Meppen has exhibited in recent outings. The expected outcome strongly tilts towards a home victory, likely a 2-0 win, with the potential for Meppen to grab a consolation goal nudging the plausible scenario to 2-1. As for the shrewd bettor, the under 3.5 goals market presents a compelling opportunity, subtly balancing the clash of possession styles against the predicted outcomes.
Hansa RostockForm WDLWD
League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #17xP/match #6Points #5
Key players
- Bernie LennemannRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.13
- Maximilian KraussLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
- Leon DajakuLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.24
MeppenForm WLLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #13xP/match #7Points #18
Key players
- Luca PrasseRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.20
- Nikell Paul TougloCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
- Dominique DomroseRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
Final score
0 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hansa Rostock 63% · Draw 21% · Meppen 16%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Hansa RostockBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,69fair 4,60-20 %
MissMatchresultat - SV Meppen 1912Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,74fair 23,50-50 %
MissMatch prediction: Hansa Rostock – Meppen
Predicted score matrix
Meppen →
Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–13.8%
0–22.0%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–08.9%
1–19.2%
1–24.4%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.1%
2–19.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–07.4%
3–17.2%
3–23.5%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–06.8%
4+–16.7%
4+–23.3%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-19%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,20–0,98
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.75EV+6%
Over 2,562%
@1.45
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hansa Rostock to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Andreas Voglsammer to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Andreas Voglsammer to score29%
- Ersin Zehir to be booked27%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.538% probability@2.75Paddy PowerEV+6%reference odds
- Under 3.561% probability@1.69PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- 1 · Hansa Rostock63% probability@1.62PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hansa Rostock | X | 2 · Meppen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.55 | 4.25 | 4.80 |
| LeoVegas | 1.53 | 4.15 | 4.65 |
| Nordicbet | 1.55 | 4.25 | 4.80 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 1.62 | 4.55 | 4.46 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 13:35
Odds movement
1+6 %
62 %57 %
1.52 → 1.62
X-3 %
23 %18 %
4.68 → 4.55
2-7 %
23 %18 %
4.80 → 4.46
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- SV Meppen have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hansa Rostock
Meppen
Hansa Rostock (15–15)
Meppen (8–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hansa Rostock
Meppen
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hansa Rostock
Meppen
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hansa Rostock | Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 6 |
| xPoints | 11.5 | 10.8 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Hansa Rostock | Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.91 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 307 | 264 |
| Passes against per match | 391 | 354 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.3 | 18 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Hansa Rostock | Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| Other | Hansa Rostock | Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Luca Unbehaun (Hansa Rostock) | Julius Pünt (Meppen) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 21 |
| Save % | 56% | 58% |
| xG prevented | 33% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Wurzburger Kickers – Hansa Rostock10 October 2026
- Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026
- Meppen – VfB Stuttgart II10 October 2026
- Fortuna Köln – Saarbrücken10 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Havelse10 October 2026
- Duisburg – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II10 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Wehen Wiesbaden11 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Verl11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hansa Rostock vs Meppen according to our model?
The model gives Hansa Rostock a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hansa Rostock 63%, draw 21%, Meppen 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Hansa Rostock vs Meppen?
The model expects 2.20 goals (xG) for Hansa Rostock and 0.98 for Meppen, 3.18 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Hansa Rostock or draw (1X) 84%, Meppen or draw (X2) 37% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.