Rot-Weiss Essen vs Fortuna Köln: Prediction & Odds (13 Oct 2026)

3. Liga13 October 202615°2,2 mm21 km/h

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Rot-Weiss EssenPossession & high press

2–0

Fortuna KölnPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Rot-Weiss Essen (69%)

1 · Rot-Weiss Essen 69%X 20%11% Fortuna Köln · 2

69%

20%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rot-Weiss Essen vs Fortuna Köln (3. Liga, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Rot-Weiss Essen win 69%, draw 20%, Fortuna Köln win 11%. Expected goals (xG): Rot-Weiss Essen 2.34, Fortuna Köln 0.82. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Rot-Weiss Essen or draw 89%, Fortuna Köln or draw 31%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.

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Analysis: Rot-Weiss Essen – Fortuna Köln

Erik Lindberg · 11 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Rot-Weiss Essen holds a commanding 69% win probability against SC Fortuna Koln, with a model suggesting a firm edge for the hosts. Essen's unbeaten streak in their last seven league matches further underlines their dominance. The model's favorite scoreline is 2-0, backed by expected goals of 2.34 for Essen compared to Fortuna's 0.82. The numbers paint a clear picture: Essen's high press and possession style have them in the driver's seat.

The visitors, known for possession control, face a daunting task. Despite their strategic approach, Fortuna's xG of 1.1 pales against Essen's robust 2.0. This gap, coupled with their meager 11% win probability, suggests a tough evening for Koln. Essen's defensive solidity, with an xGA of 1.1, further dampens Koln's prospects of finding the net, despite a 51% chance of both teams scoring.

For those looking at the betting angle, LeoVegas offers home odds at 1.47, which align with the model's 69% win rate for Essen, presenting a slight value with a 1% edge. With a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals, the numbers imply a potential for multiple goals, yet the sharpest play remains backing the home side.

Rot-Weiss Essen

Form DWWWD

League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #1xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Ben HuningCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
Semir TelalovićCAMxG 0.69 · xT 0.16
Lucas BrummeFxG 0.25 · xT 0.29

Fortuna Köln

Form DWDLW

League ranking xG #19xGA #9xT #15xP/match #14Points #13

Key players

Tom GeerkensCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
Adrian StanilewiczCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
Bennit BrögerFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13

Final score

2 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Rot-Weiss Essen 69% · Draw 20% · Fortuna Köln 11%

Match prediction: Rot-Weiss Essen – Fortuna Köln

Predicted score matrix

Fortuna Köln →

Rot-Weiss Essen →

0–04.5%

0–13.2%

0–21.4%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.7%

1–18.4%

1–23.3%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.6%

2–19.5%

2–23.9%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–09.1%

3–17.4%

3–23.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–09.2%

4+–17.5%

4+–23.1%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.3-09%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,34–0,82

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.63EV+2%

Over 2,561%

@1.52

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rot-Weiss Essen to win69%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rot-Weiss Essen to win69%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Semir Telalović to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Semir Telalović to score33%
Tom Geerkens to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Rot-Weiss Essen69% probability@1.50PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
Under 2.539% probability@2.63Paddy PowerEV+2%reference odds
1 · Rot-Weiss Essen69% probability@1.47LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rot-Weiss Essen	X	2 · Fortuna Köln
LeoVegas	EV+ 1% 1.47	4.30	5.40
Paddy Power	1.44	4.40	5.50
Pinnacle	EV+ 3% 1.50	4.65	5.57

Odds updated 13 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

65 %60 %

1.49 → 1.50

X+2 %

23 %18 %

4.54 → 4.65

2+4 %

20 %15 %

5.38 → 5.57

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Rot-Weiss Essen are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Rot-Weiss Essen win 58% of their home matches all-time (43 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rot-Weiss Essen

Fortuna Köln

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rot-Weiss Essen (14–9)

Fortuna Köln (6–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rot-Weiss Essen

Fortuna Köln

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rot-Weiss Essen

Fortuna Köln

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rot-Weiss Essen	Fortuna Köln
Points	17	8
xPoints	14	7.9
xG per match	2	1.1
xGA per match	1.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.04	0.28

Playing style	Rot-Weiss Essen	Fortuna Köln
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.41
Field tilt	0.57	0.39
xT per match	1.7	0.99
xTA per match	0.86	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	30	19
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.2
Entries into the box per match	17	11
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.76	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.65
Passes per match	339	279
Passes against per match	321	387
Switches of play per match	24.3	26.7
Long balls per match	42	38

Set pieces	Rot-Weiss Essen	Fortuna Köln
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.06
Corners per match	6.3	4
Corners against per match	4.2	4.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.62

Other	Rot-Weiss Essen	Fortuna Köln
Throw-in control	0.85	0.72

The goalkeepers	Jakob Golz (Rot-Weiss Essen)	Lennart Winkler (Fortuna Köln)
Saves	18	22
Save %	67%	79%
xG prevented	40%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rot-Weiss Essen

Fixtures, form & tips

Fortuna Köln

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rot-Weiss Essen vs Fortuna Köln according to our model?

The model gives Rot-Weiss Essen a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rot-Weiss Essen 69%, draw 20%, Fortuna Köln 11%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Rot-Weiss Essen vs Fortuna Köln?

The model expects 2.34 goals (xG) for Rot-Weiss Essen and 0.82 for Fortuna Köln, 3.16 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Rot-Weiss Essen or draw (1X) 89%, Fortuna Köln or draw (X2) 31% and no draw (12) 80%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.