01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Duisburg or draw (X2)71%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
3. Liga11°0,6 mm6 km/h
Läs på svenska
SaarbrückenPossession control2–4
DuisburgBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Duisburg (41%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.00 (+7 %)
Saarbrücken vs Duisburg · 3. Liga
1 · Saarbrücken 32%X 27%41% Duisburg · 2
32%
27%
41%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Saarbrücken vs Duisburg (3. Liga, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Saarbrücken win 32%, draw 27%, Duisburg win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Saarbrücken 1.26, Duisburg 1.62. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Saarbrücken or draw 59%, Duisburg or draw 68%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: Saarbrücken – Duisburg
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
In their brief head-to-head history since 2024, Saarbrücken and Duisburg have faced off just twice, with the hosts yet to secure a victory. This small sample, which includes one draw and one loss for Saarbrücken, weighs less heavily than recent form and expected goals. However, it underscores Duisburg's slight psychological edge coming into this fixture.
Diving into current form, Duisburg has been more impressive, sitting on 18 points compared to Saarbrücken's 13. The visitors have shown consistency in front of goal, scoring in their last eight league matches. Saarbrücken, while possessing a higher xG per match at 2.2, have not translated that potential into points as efficiently as their opponents. The expected goals against (xGA) statistics further highlight Duisburg's defensive solidity, with a figure of 0.91 compared to Saarbrücken's 1.3, suggesting the hosts might struggle to capitalize on their possession-based style against a well-drilled Duisburg side.
The model probabilities give Duisburg a 41% chance of victory, and the most likely scoreline predictions suggest a tight affair, with 1-1, 1-2, and 0-1 all vying for prominence. Both teams to score is rated at 58%, indicative of the attacking threat each side possesses, yet the balance tips towards the visitors in a marginal manner. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 55%, aligning with the notion of a competitive and potentially open game.
The sharp angle lies in the betting market, where value can be found in backing Duisburg at odds of 2.45 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, or Nordicbet. Despite the model's 41% probability aligning perfectly with these odds, the consistency of Duisburg's scoring streak and their edge in form suggests they are the side to lean towards. A 1-2 scoreline feels plausible, with an eye on the potential for goals given the underlying numbers.
SaarbrückenForm LWLDW
League ranking xG #1xGA #7xT #3xP/match #2Points #4
Key players
- Kai BrunkerFxG 0.73 · xT 0.12
- Florian PickRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.24
- Daniel GleiberCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
DuisburgForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #11xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.70 · xT -0.02
- Peter RemmertFxG 1.04 · xT 0.02
- Can Beklan CoşkunLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
Final score
2 – 4
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Saarbrücken 32% · Draw 27% · Duisburg 41%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - MSV DuisburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,50fair 7,32-11 %
HitMatchresultat - FC SaarbrückenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,35fair 12,02-47 %
MissMatch prediction: Saarbrücken – Duisburg
Predicted score matrix
Duisburg →
Saarbrücken →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–18.8%
0–27.4%
0–34.0%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–06.7%
1–111.8%
1–29.3%
1–35.0%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.5%
2–17.2%
2–25.8%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–01.9%
3–13.0%
3–22.5%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.3%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-27%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,26–1,62
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.38EV+7%
Over 2,555%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Duisburg or draw (X2)71%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jakob Bookjans to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Florian Pick to score21%
- Patrick Sontheimer to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.521% probability@5.00Paddy PowerEV+7%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.38Paddy PowerEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Duisburg41% probability@2.57PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Saarbrücken | X | 2 · Duisburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | 3.40 | EV+ 3% 2.52 |
| LeoVegas | 2.45 | 3.45 | EV+ 2% 2.50 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.40 | EV+ 3% 2.52 |
| Paddy Power | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | EV+ 3% 3.80 | EV+ 5% 2.57 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
1+5 %
40 %35 %
2.38 → 2.49
X+4 %
28 %23 %
3.65 → 3.80
2-1 %
40 %35 %
2.59 → 2.57
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSaarbrücken 0Draw 1Duisburg 1
Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.
Key facts
- MSV Duisburg have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Saarbrücken
Duisburg
Saarbrücken (19–12)
Duisburg (19–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Saarbrücken
Duisburg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Saarbrücken
Duisburg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Saarbrücken | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 18 |
| xPoints | 12.7 | 14.6 |
| xG per match | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 0.91 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Saarbrücken | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 350 | 352 |
| Passes against per match | 316 | 387 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.3 | 21.4 |
| Long balls per match | 44 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Saarbrücken | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.26 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 7.4 | 7 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.5 |
| Other | Saarbrücken | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Matteo Bignetti (Saarbrücken) | Maximilian Braune (Duisburg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 16 |
| Save % | 64% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Wurzburger Kickers – Hansa Rostock10 October 2026
- Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026
- Meppen – VfB Stuttgart II10 October 2026
- Fortuna Köln – Saarbrücken10 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Havelse10 October 2026
- Duisburg – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II10 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Wehen Wiesbaden11 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Verl11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Saarbrücken vs Duisburg according to our model?
The model gives Duisburg a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saarbrücken 32%, draw 27%, Duisburg 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Saarbrücken vs Duisburg?
The model expects 1.26 goals (xG) for Saarbrücken and 1.62 for Duisburg, 2.88 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Saarbrücken or draw (1X) 59%, Duisburg or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.