Wehen Wiesbaden vs Duisburg: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

3. Liga20 September 202616°0,1 mm14 km/h

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Wehen WiesbadenPossession & high press

DuisburgLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Duisburg (48%)

1 · Wehen Wiesbaden 28%X 24%48% Duisburg · 2

28%

24%

48%

Analysis: Wehen Wiesbaden – Duisburg

Marcus Johansson · 19 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

With Duisburg given a 48% probability to triumph over Wehen Wiesbaden, the model leans decisively towards the visitors. This clash is framed by contrasting playing styles: Wiesbaden's possession-heavy, high-press approach against Duisburg's low defensive block and direct counterattacks. Despite the small sample size of their head-to-head record, Duisburg's superior form this season, reflected in both points and expected points, adds weight to this prediction.

Wiesbaden, though eager to control possession, has collected just 2 points so far, struggling to convert their 1.26 expected goals per game into actual victories. Duisburg, meanwhile, not only boasts a higher xG of 2.0 per match but also a rock-solid defense, conceding a mere 0.85 xGA on average. With a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, the match may well see scoring opportunities on both ends.

In betting terms, Duisburg presents a value proposition with their odds at 2.12 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a 3% edge over the model's estimated probability. A 1-2 result seems plausible, aligning with the most likely scorelines—emphasizing the visitors' potential to exploit Wiesbaden's leaky defense.

Wehen Wiesbaden

Form LLDDL

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #3xP/match #18Points #21

Key players

Tarik GozusirinFxG 0.12 · xT 0.04
Jakob LewaldCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.21
Justin JanitzekCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.12

Duisburg

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #12xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Lex Tyger LobingerFxG 0.70 · xT -0.02
Peter RemmertFxG 0.86 · xT 0.02
Can Beklan CoşkunLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Wehen Wiesbaden – Duisburg

Predicted score matrix

Duisburg →

Wehen Wiesbaden →

0–06.3%

0–19.0%

0–27.3%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.1%

1–07.2%

1–112.1%

1–29.1%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.6%

2–04.8%

2–17.4%

2–25.7%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.6%

3–02.0%

3–13.1%

3–22.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,26–1,56

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.25EV+5%

Over 2,553%

@1.81

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Duisburg to win48%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Duisburg to win48%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Lex-Tyger Lobinger to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Lex-Tyger Lobinger to score26%
Rasim Bulić to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Duisburg48% probability@2.21PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.25Paddy PowerEV+5%reference odds
2 · Duisburg48% probability@2.15BetsafeEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Wehen Wiesbaden	X	2 · Duisburg
Betsafe	3.05	3.35	EV+ 4% 2.15
Betsson	3.05	3.35	EV+ 4% 2.15
Nordicbet	3.05	3.35	EV+ 4% 2.15
Paddy Power	3.10	3.60	1.95
Pinnacle	3.06	3.44	EV+ 7% 2.21

Odds updated 19 Sept, 10:20

Odds movement

1-1 %

32 %27 %

3.09 → 3.06

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.44 → 3.44

2+1 %

46 %41 %

2.19 → 2.21

Over 2,5+1 %

55 %50 %

1.79 → 1.81

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 17/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Wehen Wiesbaden 1Draw 0Duisburg 1

Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 5,5)

Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Wehen Wiesbaden

Duisburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Wehen Wiesbaden (2–9)

Duisburg (15–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Wehen Wiesbaden

Duisburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Wehen Wiesbaden

Duisburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Wehen Wiesbaden	Duisburg
Points	2	15
xPoints	5.4	12.7
xG per match	1.4	2
xGA per match	1.6	0.85
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.14

Playing style	Wehen Wiesbaden	Duisburg
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.61	0.5
xT per match	1.4	1.1
xTA per match	0.76	1
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.19
Entries into the box per match	15	14
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.72
Passes per match	344	328
Passes against per match	312	372
Switches of play per match	19.4	22.2
Long balls per match	36	33

Set pieces	Wehen Wiesbaden	Duisburg
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.11
Corners per match	5.4	6.8
Corners against per match	5.4	3.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.53

Other	Wehen Wiesbaden	Duisburg
Throw-in control	0.72	0.74

The goalkeepers	Florian Stritzel (Wehen Wiesbaden)	Maximilian Braune (Duisburg)
Saves	13	12
Save %	59%	67%
xG prevented	19%	55%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Wehen Wiesbaden

Fixtures, form & tips

Duisburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wehen Wiesbaden vs Duisburg according to our model?

The model gives Duisburg a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wehen Wiesbaden 28%, draw 24%, Duisburg 48%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.