3. Liga18°15 km/h

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    Waldhof MannheimWaldhof MannheimCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Preussen MünsterPreussen MünsterCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Waldhof Mannheim (48%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.28 (+7 %)

    Waldhof Mannheim vs Preussen Münster · 3. Liga

    1 · Waldhof Mannheim 48%X 26%26% Preussen Münster · 2

    Analysis: Waldhof Mannheim – Preussen Münster

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Waldhof Mannheim enters this clash with a statistical edge in expected goals and goals against, yet they trail Preussen Münster on the points table. The model gives the hosts a 48% chance of victory, subtly favoring them despite the visitors' better point tally. This discrepancy hints at Mannheim's underlying strength, which is not fully reflected in their actual results but visible in their stronger xG metrics.

    The expected goals tell a story: Mannheim generates 1.71 xG per game, significantly higher than Münster's 1.10, suggesting they create more quality chances. Yet the most likely outcomes remain tight, with both 1-1 and 1-0 scorelines given a 10-12% likelihood. This predicts a narrow margin, dominated by defensive resilience.

    Both teams share a counter-attacking style focused on crosses, likely resulting in a strategic chess match rather than an end-to-end spectacle. The model's 53% lean towards over 2.5 goals clashes with the 7% value edge found in unders at odds of 2.28 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Here lies an unexpected betting angle: the numbers endorse a restrained goal tally contrary to surface expectations.

    In terms of form, Mannheim's underlying xPoints merit them as the more effective side than their league position implies. Preussen Münster's actual points advantage could be misleading, possibly inflated by more fortuitous results rather than consistent performance.

    Considering the model's insights and the value found in the under 2.5 goals market, a controlled 1-1 draw or narrow 1-0 victory for Mannheim emerges as a reasonable prediction. The odds for under 2.5 goals appeal for those seeking value, indicating that the flow of play might lean towards a tighter, less prolific affair than the teams' styles might suggest.

    Waldhof MannheimWaldhof Mannheim
    Form DLLWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #5xT #4xP/match #9Points #13
    Key players
    • Lovis BierschenkLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.24
    • Favour Jidechi OkekeRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.26
    • Julian UlbrichtLWxG 0.43 · xT -0.01
    Preussen MünsterPreussen Münster
    Form DLWWD
    League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #22xP/match #16Points #4
    Key players
    • Charalambos MakridisLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.10
    • Marvin SchulzFxG 0.39 · xT 0.03
    • Leon TasovRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Waldhof Mannheim – Preussen Münster

    Predicted score matrix

    Preussen Münster →
    Waldhof Mannheim →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–16.3%
    0–23.6%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–111.6%
    1–26.2%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–08.8%
    2–19.7%
    2–25.3%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–05.1%
    3–15.5%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–03.2%
    4+–13.5%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    1,71–1,10
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.28EV+7%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Waldhof Mannheim to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    41%

    Fair odds

    2.41

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Waldhof Mannheim to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Felix Lohkemper to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Felix Lohkemper to score28%
    • Jorrit Petrus Carolina Hendrix to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.547% probability@2.28BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.28BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.28NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Waldhof MannheimX2 · Preussen Münster
    Betsafe
    EV+ 1%
    2.10    		3.503.00
    Betsson
    EV+ 1%
    2.10    		3.503.00
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 1%
    2.10    		3.503.00
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 1%
    2.10    		3.753.16

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 15:59

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    47 %42 %

    2.08 → 2.10

    X+1 %
    28 %23 %

    3.71 → 3.75

    2+1 %
    32 %27 %

    3.12 → 3.16

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 17/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Waldhof Mannheim
    Preussen Münster
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Waldhof Mannheim (9–10)
    Preussen Münster (12–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Waldhof Mannheim
    Claudio Matthias Kammerknecht: 232 passningar, xT 0.64KammerknechtFavour Jidechi Okeke: 200 passningar, xT 0.87OkekeOwono-Darnell Keumo: 151 passningar, xT 1.31KeumoThijmen Joel Sander Nijhuis: 150 passningar, xT 0.22NijhuisJulian Rieckmann: 141 passningar, xT 0.74RieckmannLukas Klunter: 121 passningar, xT 0.34KlunterMoritz Malik Polte: 101 passningar, xT 0.16PolteVincent Thill: 94 passningar, xT 0.01ThillDiego Michel: 92 passningar, xT 0.62MichelMaximilian Thalhammer: 79 passningar, xT 0.42ThalhammerLovis Bierschenk: 78 passningar, xT 0.62Bierschenk
    Preussen Münster
    Morten Jens Behrens: 212 passningar, xT 0.28BehrensAntonio Tikvić: 202 passningar, xT 0.47TikvićTorge Paetow: 152 passningar, xT 0.14PaetowLucas Christopher Zeller: 137 passningar, xT 0.03ZellerNiko Koulis: 114 passningar, xT 0.11KoulisNiklas Varelmann: 106 passningar, xT 0.14VarelmannRico Preißinger: 94 passningar, xT 0.02PreißingerRyan Johansson: 87 passningar, xT 0JohanssonCharalambos Makridis: 78 passningar, xT 0.6MakridisLouis Philipp Kolbe: 69 passningar, xT 0.54KolbePhilipp Maier: 60 passningar, xT 0.03Maier
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Waldhof Mannheim
    Claudio Matthias Kammerknecht: 232 passningar, xT 0.64KammerknechtFavour Jidechi Okeke: 200 passningar, xT 0.87OkekeOwono-Darnell Keumo: 151 passningar, xT 1.31KeumoThijmen Joel Sander Nijhuis: 150 passningar, xT 0.22NijhuisJulian Rieckmann: 141 passningar, xT 0.74RieckmannLukas Klunter: 121 passningar, xT 0.34KlunterMoritz Malik Polte: 101 passningar, xT 0.16PolteVincent Thill: 94 passningar, xT 0.01ThillDiego Michel: 92 passningar, xT 0.62MichelMaximilian Thalhammer: 79 passningar, xT 0.42ThalhammerLovis Bierschenk: 78 passningar, xT 0.62Bierschenk
    Preussen Münster
    Morten Jens Behrens: 212 passningar, xT 0.28BehrensAntonio Tikvić: 202 passningar, xT 0.47TikvićTorge Paetow: 152 passningar, xT 0.14PaetowLucas Christopher Zeller: 137 passningar, xT 0.03ZellerNiko Koulis: 114 passningar, xT 0.11KoulisNiklas Varelmann: 106 passningar, xT 0.14VarelmannRico Preißinger: 94 passningar, xT 0.02PreißingerRyan Johansson: 87 passningar, xT 0JohanssonCharalambos Makridis: 78 passningar, xT 0.6MakridisLouis Philipp Kolbe: 69 passningar, xT 0.54KolbePhilipp Maier: 60 passningar, xT 0.03Maier

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWaldhof MannheimPreussen Münster
    Points711
    xPoints8.87.2
    xG per match1.51.2
    xGA per match1.21.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.160.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.25
    Playing styleWaldhof MannheimPreussen Münster
    Build-up efficiency0.320.26
    Field tilt0.50.41
    xT per match1.40.59
    xTA per match10.98
    Won balls, offensive half2226
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.340.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.22
    Entries into the box per match169
    Entries into the box against1311
    Pass completion %0.750.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.68
    Passes per match335297
    Passes against per match331376
    Switches of play per match26.415
    Long balls per match3930
    Set piecesWaldhof MannheimPreussen Münster
    xG from free kicks0.040.06
    Corners per match4.33.3
    Corners against per match4.54.8
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.540.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.72
    OtherWaldhof MannheimPreussen Münster
    Throw-in control0.740.72
    The goalkeepersThijmen Joel Sander Nijhuis (Waldhof Mannheim)Morten Jens Behrens (Preussen Münster)
    Saves1513
    Save %71%54%
    xG prevented68%32%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Waldhof Mannheim
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Preussen Münster
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Waldhof Mannheim vs Preussen Münster according to our model?

    The model gives Waldhof Mannheim a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Waldhof Mannheim 48%, draw 26%, Preussen Münster 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.