3. Liga15°19 km/h

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    VfB Stuttgart IIVfB Stuttgart IIPossession control
    vs
    Jahn RegensburgJahn RegensburgLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · VfB Stuttgart II (42%)

    VfB Stuttgart II – Jahn Regensburg · 3. Liga

    1 · VfB Stuttgart II 42%X 23%35% Jahn Regensburg · 2

    Analysis: VfB Stuttgart II – Jahn Regensburg

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Two games between Stuttgart's reserves and Jahn Regensburg since 2024 provide scant evidence for enduring rivalries or patterns. Each side has claimed a win, leaving little to separate them historically. Despite Regensburg's slight edge in season expected points and xG per match, form tips the balance towards the home side. The visitors are reeling from a three-match losing streak, a worrying signal against the rising momentum of the Stuttgart reserves.

    The model gives a 42% probability to a home win, underlining the hosts' recent strength. This is bolstered by Stuttgart's expected goals at 1.79, suggesting a capacity to threaten Regensburg's defense. Still, Regensburg's defensive frailties are mirrored by Stuttgart's, with both teams conceding over 1.9 xGA per match. Such vulnerabilities hint at an open game, with the likelihood of both teams finding the net at 64%.

    While Stuttgart's play centers on controlling possession, Regensburg sits in a low defensive block and looks to counter directly. Given these contrasting styles, the hosts could dominate the ball, but Regensburg's counterattacking potential shouldn't be underestimated. The model gives a 63% probability for over 2.5 goals, aligning with both teams' defensive records and attacking needs.

    The sharpest angle lies in the market discrepancy. Bet365 offers odds of 2.60 for a Stuttgart win, which rates as the value pick here. The numbers favor the hosts, and with Regensburg's form spiraling, a 2-1 home victory seems the most fitting outcome. Expect goals on both sides, but trust Stuttgart's control to edge out a win.

    VfB Stuttgart IIVfB Stuttgart II
    Form LWLLW
    League ranking xG #19xGA #18xT #11xP/match #21Points #7
    Key players
    • Nicolas SessaRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.20
    • Oliver RölkeFxG 0.33 · xT -0.05
    • Alexander GroissCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
    Jahn RegensburgJahn Regensburg
    Form LWLLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #8xP/match #19Points #18
    Key players
    • Lucas HermesFxG 0.26 · xT 0.14
    • Adrian FeinCAMxG 0.29 · xT 0.19
    • David PhilippRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.16

    Match prediction: VfB Stuttgart II – Jahn Regensburg

    Predicted score matrix

    Jahn Regensburg →
    VfB Stuttgart II →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.2%
    0–15.4%
    0–24.2%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–06.6%
    1–110.4%
    1–27.4%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.8%
    2
    2–06.2%
    2–19.0%
    2–26.6%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–15.4%
    3–23.9%
    3–31.9%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–13.6%
    4+–22.6%
    4+–31.3%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,79–1,47
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,537%
    –
    Over 2,563%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance VfB Stuttgart II or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.73

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance VfB Stuttgart II or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Mansour Ouro-Tagba to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Philipp Müller to score20%
    • Samuele Di Benedetto to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    VfB Stuttgart II 1Draw 0Jahn Regensburg 1
    Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on 3. Liga data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Jahn Regensburg have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    VfB Stuttgart II
    Jahn Regensburg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    VfB Stuttgart II (6–7)
    Jahn Regensburg (7–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    VfB Stuttgart II
    Maximilian Herwerth: 208 passningar, xT 0.25HerwerthAlexander Groiss: 206 passningar, xT 0.59GroissNicolas Sessa: 131 passningar, xT 0.67SessaJarzinho Malanga: 115 passningar, xT 0.25MalangaDavid Preu: 112 passningar, xT 0.43PreuJerik von der Felsen: 108 passningar, xT 0.12FelsenYanik Noah Spalt: 95 passningar, xT 0.14SpaltDominik Nothnagel: 73 passningar, xT 0.42NothnagelJulian Luers: 70 passningar, xT 0.02LuersErtugrul Yigit: 61 passningar, xT 0.1YigitAntonijo Janjić: 51 passningar, xT 0.13Janjić
    Jahn Regensburg
    Adrian Fein: 240 passningar, xT 0.51FeinFelix Strauß: 213 passningar, xT 0.35StraußLeopold Wurm: 212 passningar, xT 0.43WurmHannes Steffen Hermann: 117 passningar, xT 0.14HermannBenedikt Bauer: 110 passningar, xT 0.48BauerOscar Schönfelder: 108 passningar, xT 1.18SchönfelderErik Majetschak: 86 passningar, xT -0.02MajetschakNassim Boujellab: 80 passningar, xT 0.06BoujellabSascha Hingerl: 59 passningar, xT -0.03HingerlDavid Philipp: 52 passningar, xT 0.54PhilippLucas Hermes: 39 passningar, xT 0Hermes
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    VfB Stuttgart II
    Maximilian Herwerth: 208 passningar, xT 0.25HerwerthAlexander Groiss: 206 passningar, xT 0.59GroissNicolas Sessa: 131 passningar, xT 0.67SessaJarzinho Malanga: 115 passningar, xT 0.25MalangaDavid Preu: 112 passningar, xT 0.43PreuJerik von der Felsen: 108 passningar, xT 0.12FelsenYanik Noah Spalt: 95 passningar, xT 0.14SpaltDominik Nothnagel: 73 passningar, xT 0.42NothnagelJulian Luers: 70 passningar, xT 0.02LuersErtugrul Yigit: 61 passningar, xT 0.1YigitAntonijo Janjić: 51 passningar, xT 0.13Janjić
    Jahn Regensburg
    Adrian Fein: 240 passningar, xT 0.51FeinFelix Strauß: 213 passningar, xT 0.35StraußLeopold Wurm: 212 passningar, xT 0.43WurmHannes Steffen Hermann: 117 passningar, xT 0.14HermannBenedikt Bauer: 110 passningar, xT 0.48BauerOscar Schönfelder: 108 passningar, xT 1.18SchönfelderErik Majetschak: 86 passningar, xT -0.02MajetschakNassim Boujellab: 80 passningar, xT 0.06BoujellabSascha Hingerl: 59 passningar, xT -0.03HingerlDavid Philipp: 52 passningar, xT 0.54PhilippLucas Hermes: 39 passningar, xT 0Hermes

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVfB Stuttgart IIJahn Regensburg
    Points63
    xPoints2.33.7
    xG per match0.991.1
    xGA per match1.92.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.14
    Playing styleVfB Stuttgart IIJahn Regensburg
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.620.49
    xT per match11.2
    xTA per match0.671.1
    Won balls, offensive half2123
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.340.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.22
    Entries into the box per match1212
    Entries into the box against1016
    Pass completion %0.780.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.71
    Passes per match373342
    Passes against per match282396
    Switches of play per match2518.6
    Long balls per match3328
    Set piecesVfB Stuttgart IIJahn Regensburg
    xG from free kicks0.050.04
    Corners per match5.33.2
    Corners against per match6.15.2
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.040.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.31
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.4
    OtherVfB Stuttgart IIJahn Regensburg
    Throw-in control0.710.66
    The goalkeepersJerik von der Felsen (VfB Stuttgart II)Hannes Steffen Hermann (Jahn Regensburg)
    Saves1112
    Save %65%55%
    xG prevented41%34%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    VfB Stuttgart II
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Jahn Regensburg
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins VfB Stuttgart II vs Jahn Regensburg according to our model?

    The model gives VfB Stuttgart II a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: VfB Stuttgart II 42%, draw 23%, Jahn Regensburg 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.