01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hoffenheim II or draw (X2)64%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
3. Liga10°0,5 mm7 km/h
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VfB Stuttgart IIPossession & high press3–2
Hoffenheim IIPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Hoffenheim II (38%)Best value by the model: 1 · VfB Stuttgart II @ 3.07 (+14 %)
VfB Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II · 3. Liga
1 · VfB Stuttgart II 37%X 25%38% Hoffenheim II · 2
37%
25%
38%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for VfB Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II (3. Liga, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): VfB Stuttgart II win 37%, draw 25%, Hoffenheim II win 38%. Expected goals (xG): VfB Stuttgart II 1.67, Hoffenheim II 1.80. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. Double chance: VfB Stuttgart II or draw 62%, Hoffenheim II or draw 63%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: VfB Stuttgart II – Hoffenheim II
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The model gives Hoffenheim II a slight edge with a 38% probability of winning, while Stuttgart II stands at 37%. Despite this, the hosts have shown better results, accumulating 10 points compared to Hoffenheim’s 6. However, the expected goals (xG) paint a different picture: Hoffenheim II averages 1.7 xG per match versus Stuttgart II's 1.1 xG, highlighting a more potent attack.
Defensively, Stuttgart II's numbers raise concerns. They allow 2.0 expected goals against (xGA) per match, significantly higher than Hoffenheim II's 1.6 xGA. This defensive fragility could be pivotal given both teams focus on possession-based play. The most likely outcomes, according to the model, are 1-1 and 1-2, each with an 8-10% probability. With a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, goals seem likely, though not guaranteed.
For those seeking value, Stuttgart II offers an interesting option at 2.9 odds with Betsafe and Nordicbet, presenting an 8% edge according to the model, and 2.8 odds with LeoVegas, offering a 4% edge. While not a surefire bet, the numbers suggest the home side might be undervalued in this tight matchup.
VfB Stuttgart IIForm LWLLD
League ranking xG #20xGA #21xT #12xP/match #22Points #10
Key players
- Tim van der LeijFxG 0.28 · xT -0.03
- Oliver RölkeFxG 0.39 · xT -0.02
- Joyeux Masanka BungiLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
Hoffenheim IIForm LWWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #9xP/match #13Points #16
Key players
- Ayoube Amaimouni-EchghouyabRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
- Deniz ZeitlerLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.09
- Luka DjuricCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
Final score
3 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: VfB Stuttgart II 37% · Draw 25% · Hoffenheim II 38%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - VfB Stuttgart Am.Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,63fair 6,83-18 %
HitMatchresultat - TSG HoffenheimBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,36fair 5,85-25 %
MissMatch prediction: VfB Stuttgart II – Hoffenheim II
Predicted score matrix
Hoffenheim II →
VfB Stuttgart II →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.4%
0–15.4%
0–25.1%
0–33.0%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–04.9%
1–19.7%
1–28.4%
1–35.1%
1–4+3.4%
2
2–04.3%
2–17.8%
2–27.0%
2–34.2%
2–4+2.8%
3
3–02.4%
3–14.3%
3–23.9%
3–32.3%
3–4+1.6%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.6%
4+–22.4%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+1.0%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-28%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-15%
Expected goals
1,67–1,80
Both teams to score
68%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,533%
@3.20EV+5%
Over 2,567%
@1.37
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hoffenheim II or draw (X2)64%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Klaus Gjasula to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score68%
- Over 2.5 goals67%
- Oliver Rölke to score24%
- Sean Dulic to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · VfB Stuttgart II37% probability@3.07PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · VfB Stuttgart II37% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · VfB Stuttgart II37% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · VfB Stuttgart II | X | 2 · Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 2.85 | 3.70 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 4% 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.12 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 2.85 | 3.70 | 2.12 |
| Paddy Power | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 14% 3.07 | EV+ 2% 4.12 | 2.05 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Hoffenheim II win since 10 October — the odds have shortened from 2.32 to 2.05 (−12%).
1+20 %
38 %28 %
2.56 → 3.07
X+7 %
29 %19 %
3.84 → 4.12
2-12 %
48 %38 %
2.32 → 2.05
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
VfB Stuttgart II
Hoffenheim II
VfB Stuttgart II (15–17)
Hoffenheim II (9–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
VfB Stuttgart II
Hoffenheim II
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
VfB Stuttgart II
Hoffenheim II
The teams in numbers
| Performance | VfB Stuttgart II | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 6 |
| xPoints | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | VfB Stuttgart II | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 400 | 362 |
| Passes against per match | 272 | 266 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.1 | 20.5 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 37 |
| Set pieces | VfB Stuttgart II | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| Other | VfB Stuttgart II | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Jerik von der Felsen (VfB Stuttgart II) | Lúkas Jóhannes Blöndal Petersson (Hoffenheim II) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 12 |
| Save % | 61% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 70% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Wurzburger Kickers – Hansa Rostock10 October 2026
- Sonnenhof Grossaspach – Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026
- Meppen – VfB Stuttgart II10 October 2026
- Fortuna Köln – Saarbrücken10 October 2026
- Jahn Regensburg – Havelse10 October 2026
- Duisburg – TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II10 October 2026
- Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- Ingolstadt – Wehen Wiesbaden11 October 2026
- Fortuna Düsseldorf – Verl11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins VfB Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II according to our model?
The model gives Hoffenheim II a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: VfB Stuttgart II 37%, draw 25%, Hoffenheim II 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and under at 33%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 68% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in VfB Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II?
The model expects 1.67 goals (xG) for VfB Stuttgart II and 1.80 for Hoffenheim II, 3.46 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
VfB Stuttgart II or draw (1X) 62%, Hoffenheim II or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.