Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Bundesliga20 September 2026BayArena, Leverkusen18°4,8 mm18 km/h

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Bayer LeverkusenPossession & high press

RB LeipzigBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Bayer Leverkusen (49%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.60 (+26 %)

1 · Bayer Leverkusen 49%X 23%27% RB Leipzig · 2

49%

23%

27%

Analysis: Bayer Leverkusen – RB Leipzig

Oscar Nilsson · 19 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Bayer Leverkusen's relentless scoring streak will be put to the test against RB Leipzig's robust defensive show. With the hosts having found the back of the net in 15 straight league games, offensive prowess seems a given. Meanwhile, Leipzig aren't far behind, scoring in their last 11. This attacking form suggests a goal-rich encounter, a notion supported by the 65% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams scoring. Yet, the expected goals data hints at a more nuanced dynamic: Leverkusen's 2.02 xG eclipses Leipzig's 1.33, which could imply that the hosts have the upper hand in chance creation.

Historically, Leverkusen have been strong at home, winning 57% of their fixtures there. But Leipzig's physical style is not to be underestimated, as reflected in their slight advantage both in points and xGA metrics. The head-to-head record since 2022 is a small sample of four matches, slightly favoring Leverkusen with two wins, a draw, and a loss. However, Leipzig's physicality could disrupt Leverkusen’s high-tempo pressing game, making it a challenging contest.

Despite the model's leaning towards a Bayer Leverkusen win (49% probability), the most likely scorelines—1-1 and 2-1—offer a balanced view. The draw at 23% also merits consideration, further highlighting the potential for a tight game. While the model suggests a 2-1 scoreline with a 10% likelihood, the defensive solidity of both teams could keep the scoreline lower than expected.

The standout value lies in the under 2.5 goals market, available at 3.34 odds across multiple bookmakers, including Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model sees a 35% chance, offering a substantial 16% edge. Given the combination of attacking form and defensive efficiency, this under bet might just be the shrewdest play amid an otherwise tempting spectacle.

Bayer Leverkusen

Form LDLWD

League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #1xP/match #7Points #12

Key players

Patrik SchickFxG 1.10 · xT -0.04
Christian KofaneFxG 0.93 · xT 0.03
Miguel Gutiérrez OrtegaLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.42

RB Leipzig

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #4xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Antonio NusaLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.12
Brajan GrudaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.43
David RaumLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.27

Match prediction: Bayer Leverkusen – RB Leipzig

Predicted score matrix

RB Leipzig →

Bayer Leverkusen →

0–03.8%

0–14.4%

0–23.1%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.6%

1–06.8%

1–19.7%

1–26.3%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.1%

2–19.5%

2–26.3%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–04.8%

3–16.4%

3–24.3%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.8%

4+–03.9%

4+–15.2%

4+–23.4%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-07%
4.1-07%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

2,02–1,33

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@3.60EV+26%

Over 2,565%

@1.30

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bayer Leverkusen to win49%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bayer Leverkusen to win49%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Patrik Schick to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Patrik Schick to score34%
Nicolas Seiwald to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.535% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+26%reference odds
Under 2.535% probability@3.60BetssonEV+26%reference odds
Under 2.535% probability@3.60NordicbetEV+26%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bayer Leverkusen	X	2 · RB Leipzig
Betsafe	1.88	4.00	3.50
Betsson	1.88	4.05	3.55
Nordicbet	1.88	4.00	3.50
Pinnacle	1.86	4.27	EV+ 4% 3.80

Odds updated 20 Sept, 11:35

Odds movement

10 %

52 %47 %

1.86 → 1.86

X+3 %

26 %21 %

4.13 → 4.27

2+6 %

30 %25 %

3.60 → 3.80

Pinnacle · 21 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Bayer Leverkusen 2Draw 1RB Leipzig 1

Goals: 11–7 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
RB Leipzig have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Bayer Leverkusen win 57% of their home matches all-time (35 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bayer Leverkusen

RB Leipzig

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bayer Leverkusen (8–5)

RB Leipzig (9–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bayer Leverkusen

RB Leipzig

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bayer Leverkusen

RB Leipzig

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bayer Leverkusen	RB Leipzig
Points	4	6
xPoints	5.2	5.8
xG per match	2.7	2.6
xGA per match	0.98	0.87
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.26

Playing style	Bayer Leverkusen	RB Leipzig
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.79	0.74
xT per match	2.7	1.6
xTA per match	0.63	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	22	28
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.26
Entries into the box per match	26	20
Entries into the box against	7	10
Pass completion %	0.83	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.75
Passes per match	531	515
Passes against per match	255	307
Switches of play per match	32.4	30.4
Long balls per match	34	26

Set pieces	Bayer Leverkusen	RB Leipzig
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.24
Corners per match	9.3	7
Corners against per match	2.3	5
xG per corner	0.04	0.08
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.64	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.73

Other	Bayer Leverkusen	RB Leipzig
Throw-in control	0.84	0.73

The goalkeepers	Mark Flekken (Bayer Leverkusen)	Maarten Vandevoordt (RB Leipzig)
Saves	6	12
Save %	55%	80%
xG prevented	41%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bayer Leverkusen

Fixtures, form & tips

RB Leipzig

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig according to our model?

The model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bayer Leverkusen 49%, draw 23%, RB Leipzig 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.