Paderborn vs Hoffenheim: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Bundesliga20 September 202617°0,9 mm26 km/h

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PaderbornPossession control

HoffenheimCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Hoffenheim (44%)Best value by the model: 1 · Paderborn @ 4.22 (+36 %)

1 · Paderborn 32%X 23%44% Hoffenheim · 2

32%

23%

44%

Analysis: Paderborn – Hoffenheim

Sofia Andersson · 19 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A 44% model probability leans towards Hoffenheim's victory as they visit Paderborn, who are struggling to find form. The model's numbers reflect a clearer picture: Paderborn is lagging behind with an xG of just 0.75 per match compared to Hoffenheim's 1.7, underlining the visitors' offensive advantage. Despite Paderborn's focus on possession, Hoffenheim's counter-attacking prowess is expected to slice through their defenses, especially given the consistent xGA of 1.6 for both sides.

Rain could dampen the goal tally slightly, but not enough to steer the game away from its over 2.5 goals lean, currently at 59%. Both teams are likely to find the net, with a 61% chance of both teams scoring. While 1-1 is the model's most likely scoreline at 11%, the visitors' superior attacking metrics suggest a 1-2 outcome at 9% is equally plausible. Paderborn's home field offers some advantage, yet their current form and statistical underperformance leave them vulnerable to Hoffenheim's strategic counters and crosses.

Paderborn’s value proposition is striking. Despite their underdog status, odds of 4.6 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a 48% edge. However, this is a risk against Hoffenheim’s clearly favorable form. For the diligent bettor, this discrepancy between market odds and model prediction highlights an intriguing opportunity, though it does not overshadow the tilt towards a Hoffenheim win.

The encounter is more than just a clash of styles; it’s a test of efficiency versus possession. Hoffenheim’s sharper edge in xG and form suggests they will dictate the game's flow, likely resulting in a narrow triumph. Betting value lies in Paderborn’s odds, yet the smart money aligns with the model's inclination towards the visitors.

Paderborn

Form DLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #7xT #16xP/match #14Points #15

Key players

Raphael ObermairLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.21
Tjark SchellerCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
Gabriel VidovićLWxG 0.00 · xT -0.02

Hoffenheim

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #7xP/match #10Points #13

Key players

Adam HložekFxG 0.57 · xT 0.06
Tim LemperleLWxG 0.43 · xT 0.02
Vladimír CoufalRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Paderborn – Hoffenheim

Predicted score matrix

Hoffenheim →

Paderborn →

0–05.1%

0–17.4%

0–26.3%

0–33.4%

0–4+2.0%

1–06.4%

1–111.3%

1–28.9%

1–34.9%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.8%

2–17.8%

2–26.3%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.3%

3–13.7%

3–23.0%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,42–1,63

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.97EV+23%

Over 2,559%

@1.41

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Fisnik Asllani to score14%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
David Kinsombi to score17%
Bernardo Fernandes da Silva Junior to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Paderborn32% probability@4.22PinnacleEV+36%reference odds
1 · Paderborn32% probability@4.10BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
1 · Paderborn32% probability@4.10BetssonEV+32%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Paderborn	X	2 · Hoffenheim
Betsafe	EV+ 32% 4.10	4.15	1.72
Betsson	EV+ 32% 4.10	4.15	1.72
Nordicbet	EV+ 32% 4.10	4.15	1.72
Pinnacle	EV+ 36% 4.22	EV+ 4% 4.43	1.74

Odds updated 20 Sept, 11:35

Odds movement

1-5 %

25 %20 %

4.43 → 4.22

X0 %

24 %19 %

4.42 → 4.43

2+6 %

59 %54 %

1.65 → 1.74

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 12/09/2026 → 20/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Paderborn

Hoffenheim

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Paderborn (0–4)

Hoffenheim (6–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Paderborn

Hoffenheim

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Paderborn

Hoffenheim

The teams in numbers

Performance	Paderborn	Hoffenheim
Points	1	3
xPoints	2.7	4.2
xG per match	0.75	1.7
xGA per match	1.6	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.27

Playing style	Paderborn	Hoffenheim
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.43	0.68
xT per match	0.77	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	30	32
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.29
Entries into the box per match	10	21
Entries into the box against	17	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.68
Passes per match	402	368
Passes against per match	386	312
Switches of play per match	23.5	23.2
Long balls per match	31	30

Set pieces	Paderborn	Hoffenheim
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.03
Corners per match	3.4	7.2
Corners against per match	7.4	5.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.1	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.73	0.44

Other	Paderborn	Hoffenheim
Throw-in control	0.85	0.72

The goalkeepers	Nahuel Nicolas Noll (Paderborn)	Oliver Baumann (Hoffenheim)
Saves	13	9
Save %	77%	60%
xG prevented	70%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Paderborn

Fixtures, form & tips

Hoffenheim

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Paderborn vs Hoffenheim according to our model?

The model gives Hoffenheim a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paderborn 32%, draw 23%, Hoffenheim 44%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.