01 · 2 legs
Safe
- AEK Athens to win65%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Greek Super League
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Asteras AktorPossession controlvs
AEK AthensPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · AEK Athens (65%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 6.50 (+21 %)
Asteras Aktor – AEK Athens · Greek Super League
1 · Asteras Aktor 14%X 21%65% AEK Athens · 2
14%
21%
65%
Analysis: Asteras Aktor – AEK Athens
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Four matches, four victories for AEK Athens. That’s the head-to-head record against Asteras Aktor since 2023, but the sample size is small and less weighted than current form and expected goals. As it stands, Asteras are in a rut, having lost three consecutive matches. In stark contrast, the visitors extend an unbeaten league run over 27 matches, signaling a daunting challenge for the hosts.
The numbers illuminate the gulf between these sides. With expected goals at 0.84 for Asteras and 2.17 for AEK Athens, the visitors clearly dominate on both ends of the pitch. The model overwhelmingly favors AEK with a 65% win probability, and the most likely scorelines of 0-2 (12%) or 0-1 (10%) bolster this outlook. Both teams favor a possession control style, but it’s the effectiveness of AEK’s approach that has consistently found the back of the net.
Goals could flow in this match, driven largely by AEK’s attacking prowess. The over 2.5 goals model probability stands at 58%, suggesting a tilt towards a more open game. The slight edge in both teams to score at 51% hints at Asteras potentially nicking a goal, despite their recent struggles. Yet, the likelihood of them overcoming AEK’s resolute defense appears slim.
Where does the value lie? Bet365 offers AEK Athens to win at 1.75, which appears to be an edge (EV+) given the dominance reflected in current form, xG disparity, and the visitors' remarkable unbeaten streak. In a matchup wrapped in one-sided statistics, those odds summon the sharpest opportunity on this board.
Asteras AktorForm DWLLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #4xP/match #13Points #13
Key players
- Julian BartoloFxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
- Franz BrorssonCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
- Giannis BouzoukisCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.20
AEK AthensForm DDWDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #3xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Luka JovićFxG 0.43 · xT 0.05
- Barnabás VargaFxG 0.47 · xT -0.03
- Lovro MajerFxG 0.12 · xT 0.42
Match prediction: Asteras Aktor – AEK Athens
Predicted score matrix
AEK Athens →
Asteras Aktor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–110.4%
0–211.6%
0–38.4%
0–4+7.5%
1
1–03.9%
1–19.3%
1–29.8%
1–37.0%
1–4+6.3%
2
2–01.7%
2–13.8%
2–24.1%
2–33.0%
2–4+2.7%
3
3–00.5%
3–11.1%
3–21.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.3%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-212%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.0-38%
Expected goals
0,84–2,17
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@1.95
Over 2,558%
@1.93EV+7%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- AEK Athens to win65%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Luka Jović to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Luka Jović to score33%
- Christos Almiras to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.519% probability@6.50Bet365EV+21%reference odds
- Over 3.535% probability@3.25Bet365EV+15%reference odds
- 1 · Asteras Aktor14% probability@8.00Bet365EV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Asteras Aktor | X | 2 · AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 14% 8.00 | 4.33 | 1.38 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 14% 7.98 | 4.57 | 1.38 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 12:25
Odds movement
1+9 %
15 %10 %
7.35 → 7.98
X+2 %
23 %18 %
4.47 → 4.57
20 %
70 %65 %
1.39 → 1.38
Over 2,5+3 %
52 %47 %
1.87 → 1.93
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAsteras Aktor 0Draw 0AEK Athens 4
Goals: 0–8 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Asteras Aktor have lost 3 in a row.
- AEK Athens are unbeaten in their last 27 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Asteras Aktor
AEK Athens
Asteras Aktor (1–6)
AEK Athens (10–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Asteras Aktor
AEK Athens
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Asteras Aktor
AEK Athens
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Asteras Aktor | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 7 |
| xPoints | 2.9 | 5.3 |
| xG per match | 0.83 | 2.3 |
| xGA per match | 0.92 | 0.73 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.03 | 0.82 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Playing style | Asteras Aktor | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.64 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 367 | 478 |
| Passes against per match | 234 | 278 |
| Switches of play per match | 36.8 | 34.1 |
| Long balls per match | 50 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Asteras Aktor | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.73 | 0.8 |
| Other | Asteras Aktor | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Nikolaos Papadopoulos (Asteras Aktor) | Thomas Strakosha (AEK Athens) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 5 |
| Save % | 64% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 81% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Asteras Aktor vs AEK Athens according to our model?
The model gives AEK Athens a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Asteras Aktor 14%, draw 21%, AEK Athens 65%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.