Greek Super League23°3,5 mm27 km/h

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    PAOKPAOKBalanced & physical
    vs
    ArisArisPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · PAOK (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Aris @ 7.00 (+47 %)

    PAOK – Aris · Greek Super League

    1 · PAOK 47%X 32%21% Aris · 2

    Analysis: PAOK – Aris

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    TEXT: In a tight head-to-head sample of just four matches since 2023, PAOK and Aris have shown a balanced rivalry with one win apiece and two draws. This small sample size shouldn't overshadow the form and expected goals data, which lean towards a close contest. PAOK's historical 67% home win rate shows their strength, yet the xPoints and xG metrics surprisingly tilt towards Aris, suggesting a deeper competitiveness than the model's 47% win probability for PAOK might imply.

    PAOK's home form remains a formidable factor, but their expected goals per match (1.4) lag slightly behind Aris's (1.6). The visitors, showing an edge in xG per match, xPoints, and xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, highlight their capacity for controlled possession and quick transition. The expected goals tally of 1.56 for PAOK versus 0.96 for Aris suggests a narrow margin, with the most likely scorelines reflecting either a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 PAOK victory. This aligns with the model’s under 50% expectation for both teams to score and the over 2.5 goal probability at 46%.

    The 2.7 mm of rain predicted could further dampen the attacking prospects, traditionally leading to fewer goals, which is already considered in the model's lean. This setting favors a tactically cautious game, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring affair.

    The clearest betting angle emerges with the draw, valued at odds of 4.25 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates the draw at a 32% probability, creating a significant 36% edge. Given the close expectations in form, xG metrics, and historical head-to-head, the draw stands out as the prime value play in this derby.

    PAOKPAOK
    Form DDWWL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #13xT #6xP/match #7Points #5
    Key players
    • Dimitris PelkasCAMxG 0.45 · xT 0.20
    • Abdul Rahman BabaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    • Andrija ZivkovicRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.32
    ArisAris
    Form WWWWL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #13xP/match #6Points #7
    Key players
    • FabianoCBxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
    • Philana Tinotenda KadewereFxG 0.35 · xT 0.08
    • Uroš RačićCMxG 0.58 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: PAOK – Aris

    Predicted score matrix

    Aris →
    PAOK →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–17.4%
    0–23.7%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–012.2%
    1–112.4%
    1–25.8%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.8%
    2–19.4%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.1%
    3–14.9%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.8%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,56–0,96
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @2.15EV+16%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.78

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • PAOK to win47%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.75

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • PAOK to win47%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Magomed Ozdoev to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Magomed Ozdoev to score28%
    • Uroš Račić to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Aris21% probability@7.00Bet365EV+47%reference odds
    • X · Draw32% probability@4.33Bet365EV+39%reference odds
    • X · Draw32% probability@4.30PinnacleEV+38%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PAOKX2 · Aris
    Bet3651.40
    EV+ 39%
    4.33
    EV+ 47%
    7.00
    Betsafe1.46
    EV+ 36%
    4.25
    EV+ 28%
    6.10
    Betsson1.47
    EV+ 36%
    4.25
    EV+ 28%
    6.10
    Nordicbet1.46
    EV+ 36%
    4.25
    EV+ 28%
    6.10
    Pinnacle1.53
    EV+ 38%
    4.30
    EV+ 17%
    5.57

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 00:27

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 2.17 to 2.02 (−7%).

    1+5 %
    65 %60 %

    1.45 → 1.53

    X-8 %
    23 %18 %

    4.65 → 4.30

    2-10 %
    19 %14 %

    6.16 → 5.57

    Over 2,5+6 %
    57 %52 %

    1.68 → 1.78

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    PAOK 1Draw 2Aris 1
    Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 1,2)

    Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • PAOK Thessaloniki win 67% of their home matches all-time (33 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    PAOK
    Aris
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    PAOK (7–4)
    Aris (5–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    PAOK
    Jonjoe Kenny: 112 passningar, xT 0.37KennyAritz Elustondo: 104 passningar, xT 0.16ElustondoGiannis Michailidis: 79 passningar, xT 0.15MichailidisAbdul Rahman Baba: 79 passningar, xT 0.14BabaAndrija Zivkovic: 62 passningar, xT 0.68ZivkovicGreg John Taylor: 58 passningar, xT 0.13TaylorJiri Pavlenka: 50 passningar, xT 0PavlenkaDimitris Pelkas: 50 passningar, xT 0.16PelkasBaptiste Santamaría: 36 passningar, xT 0.03SantamaríaChristos Zafeiris: 36 passningar, xT -0.03ZafeirisTom Louchet: 36 passningar, xT 0.02Louchet
    Aris
    Hans Fredrik Jensen: 107 passningar, xT 0.13JensenUroš Račić: 102 passningar, xT 0.1RačićAyotomiwa Sherif Dele-Bashiru: 83 passningar, xT -0.03Dele-BashiruNoah Fadiga: 77 passningar, xT 0.29FadigaOmar Tyrell Crawford Richards: 74 passningar, xT 0.05RichardsFabiano: 73 passningar, xT 0.3FabianoBenjamín Antonio Garré: 60 passningar, xT 0.21GarréMário Ricardo da Silva Velho: 50 passningar, xT 0.04VelhoJérémy Arnaud Pétris: 37 passningar, xT 0.05PétrisSebastián Alberto Palacios: 29 passningar, xT 0.07PalaciosRafael Mir Vicente: 28 passningar, xT -0.05Vicente
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    PAOK
    Jonjoe Kenny: 112 passningar, xT 0.37KennyAritz Elustondo: 104 passningar, xT 0.16ElustondoGiannis Michailidis: 79 passningar, xT 0.15MichailidisAbdul Rahman Baba: 79 passningar, xT 0.14BabaAndrija Zivkovic: 62 passningar, xT 0.68ZivkovicGreg John Taylor: 58 passningar, xT 0.13TaylorJiri Pavlenka: 50 passningar, xT 0PavlenkaDimitris Pelkas: 50 passningar, xT 0.16PelkasBaptiste Santamaría: 36 passningar, xT 0.03SantamaríaChristos Zafeiris: 36 passningar, xT -0.03ZafeirisTom Louchet: 36 passningar, xT 0.02Louchet
    Aris
    Hans Fredrik Jensen: 107 passningar, xT 0.13JensenUroš Račić: 102 passningar, xT 0.1RačićAyotomiwa Sherif Dele-Bashiru: 83 passningar, xT -0.03Dele-BashiruNoah Fadiga: 77 passningar, xT 0.29FadigaOmar Tyrell Crawford Richards: 74 passningar, xT 0.05RichardsFabiano: 73 passningar, xT 0.3FabianoBenjamín Antonio Garré: 60 passningar, xT 0.21GarréMário Ricardo da Silva Velho: 50 passningar, xT 0.04VelhoJérémy Arnaud Pétris: 37 passningar, xT 0.05PétrisSebastián Alberto Palacios: 29 passningar, xT 0.07PalaciosRafael Mir Vicente: 28 passningar, xT -0.05Vicente

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePAOKAris
    Points66
    xPoints3.94.3
    xG per match1.41.6
    xGA per match1.81.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.150.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.190.44
    Playing stylePAOKAris
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.40.47
    xT per match10.7
    xTA per match1.41.4
    Won balls, offensive half2225
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.210.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.24
    Entries into the box per match1311
    Entries into the box against1310
    Pass completion %0.740.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.68
    Passes per match310285
    Passes against per match396349
    Switches of play per match19.230.9
    Long balls per match2735
    Set piecesPAOKAris
    xG from free kicks0.040.07
    Corners per match3.74.9
    Corners against per match2.71.3
    xG per corner0.010.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.1
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.5
    OtherPAOKAris
    Throw-in control0.670.7
    The goalkeepersJiri Pavlenka (PAOK)Mário Ricardo da Silva Velho (Aris)
    Saves118
    Save %73%50%
    xG prevented68%23%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    PAOK
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Aris
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins PAOK vs Aris according to our model?

    The model gives PAOK a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PAOK 47%, draw 32%, Aris 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.