Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Greek Super League12 September 202626°14 km/h

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PanathinaikosPossession control

PanetolikosLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Panathinaikos (72%)Best value by the model: Yes @ 2.20 (+3 %)

1 · Panathinaikos 72%X 18%10% Panetolikos · 2

72%

18%

Analysis: Panathinaikos – Panetolikos

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Panathinaikos enters this matchup with a commanding 72% win probability, a reflection of both their control-oriented style and the numerical superiority in expected goals (2.10 vs. Panetolikos's 0.75). The Athens side also holds a favorable head-to-head record, having not lost in their last 4 encounters with the visitors. However, it’s a small sample and less significant than the underlying numbers and current form.

Despite Panetolikos's recent run of three consecutive wins, the expected goals and defensive stats tilt the scales back to Panathinaikos. Their xG per match of 2.6 dwarfs their opponent's 1.4, suggesting a consistent offensive threat. Defensively, both teams are closely matched, but the hosts slightly edge out with an xGA of 0.82 compared to Panetolikos's 0.84. A tight game is likely, with Panathinaikos's control style clashing against a low defence and direct play from the visitors.

The numbers point towards a Panathinaikos win, most likely 2-0, with a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 54%.

Panathinaikos

Form LLDWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #1xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Levi Samuel GarcíaFxG 0.55 · xT 0.13
Giorgos KyriakopoulosLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.41
Vicente TabordaRWxG 0.68 · xT 0.33

Panetolikos

Form DLWWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #9xP/match #4Points #1

Key players

Youssouph Mamadou BadjiFxG 0.13 · xT 0.27
Charalampos MavriasRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Diego Esteban PerezCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Panathinaikos – Panetolikos

Predicted score matrix

Panetolikos →

Panathinaikos →

0–06.0%

0–14.1%

0–21.6%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.8%

1–19.4%

1–23.4%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–012.7%

2–19.6%

2–23.6%

2–30.9%

2–4+0.2%

3–08.9%

3–16.7%

3–22.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–07.6%

4+–15.7%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-012%
3.2-110%
4.1-19%
5.3-09%

Expected goals

2,10–0,75

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.02

Over 2,554%

@1.85EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Panathinaikos to win72%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Panathinaikos to win72%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Adam Gnezda Čerin to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Adam Gnezda Čerin to score35%
Andreas Bouchalakis to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Both teams to score: Yes47% probability@2.20Bet365EV+3%reference odds
Over 2.554% probability@1.85Bet365EV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Panathinaikos	X	2 · Panetolikos
Bet365	1.30	4.50	9.00
Betsafe	1.31	4.80	8.80
Betsson	1.32	4.80	8.80
Nordicbet	1.31	4.80	8.80
Pinnacle	1.32	5.01	9.02

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38

Odds movement

1+1 %

74 %69 %

1.31 → 1.32

X-1 %

21 %16 %

5.07 → 5.01

2-2 %

13 %8 %

9.23 → 9.02

Over 2,5+1 %

56 %51 %

1.77 → 1.78

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 10/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Panathinaikos 3Draw 1Panetolikos 0

Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Panetolikos GFS come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Panathinaikos Athens win 61% of their home matches all-time (33 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Panathinaikos

Panetolikos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Panathinaikos (5–1)

Panetolikos (7–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Panathinaikos

Panetolikos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Panathinaikos

Panetolikos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Panathinaikos	Panetolikos
Points	6	9
xPoints	3.9	5.5
xG per match	2.6	1.4
xGA per match	0.82	0.84
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.11

Playing style	Panathinaikos	Panetolikos
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.74	0.45
xT per match	1.6	0.85
xTA per match	0.7	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	30
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.26
Entries into the box per match	17	10
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.84	0.66
Pass completion % under pressure	0.81	0.65
Passes per match	482	215
Passes against per match	225	375
Switches of play per match	32	22.2
Long balls per match	32	36

Set pieces	Panathinaikos	Panetolikos
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.06
Corners per match	5	2.4
Corners against per match	3.5	4.7
xG per corner	0.01	0.08
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.71
First touch, defensive corners %	0.43	0.79

Other	Panathinaikos	Panetolikos
Throw-in control	0.69	0.55

The goalkeepers	Ignacio Peña Sotorres (Panathinaikos)	Yevhen Kucherenko (Panetolikos)
Saves	3	11
Save %	75%	92%
xG prevented	64%	77%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Panathinaikos

Fixtures, form & tips

Panetolikos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos according to our model?

The model gives Panathinaikos a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Panathinaikos 72%, draw 18%, Panetolikos 10%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.