01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Atalanta to win54%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Serie AGewiss Stadium, Bergamo10°0,6 mm9 km/h
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AtalantaBalanced & physicalvs
VeneziaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Atalanta (54%)Best value by the model: 2 · Venezia @ 5.97 (+39 %)
Atalanta vs Venezia · Serie A
1 · Atalanta 54%X 23%23% Venezia · 2
54%
23%
23%
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Analysis: Atalanta – Venezia
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Five consecutive losses for Venezia set the stage for their clash with Atalanta, themselves on a three-game skid. The visitors' possession-based approach clashes with the balanced and physical style of the hosts, yet the numbers tilt slightly towards Atalanta. Model probabilities give them a 54% chance of winning, compared to Venezia's 23%. Despite this, the most likely scorelines suggest a close contest — a 1-1 draw, 1-0 home win, or 2-1 in Atalanta's favor all stand at 10-12%.
In terms of xPoints, Atalanta lead narrowly with 3.9 to Venezia's 3.1, indicating a slight edge in expected performance. Yet, Venezia's higher expected goals per match (1.6) suggest that they have the potential to convert their possession into tangible results. This contrast in attacking potential and defensive frailties — Atalanta's xGA of 1.9 against Venezia's 1.8 — suggests a match where both defenses could be breached, hence the 54% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Given these dynamics, the smart play might be the over 2.5 goals, as there's value in the potential for an open game. While Atalanta are favorites, the numbers indicate a tight contest, leaning towards a 1-1 draw or a narrow 2-1 home victory.
AtalantaForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #11xP/match #19Points #12
Key players
- Gianluca ScamaccaFxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
- Franck Yannick KessieCDMxG 0.14 · xT 0.05
- Lazar SamardzicRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.07
VeneziaForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #17xT #13xP/match #16Points #20
Key players
- John Yeboah ZamoraRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.10
- Antoine HainautRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.33
- Enrique Pérez MuñozCAMxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Atalanta – Venezia
Predicted score matrix
Venezia →
Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–16.4%
0–23.7%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–010.2%
1–111.8%
1–26.2%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.7%
2–25.2%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.0%
3–15.4%
3–23.0%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.1%
4+–13.4%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,69–1,08
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@2.41EV+15%
Over 2,552%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Atalanta to win54%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Nikola Krstović to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Nikola Krstović to score30%
- Joël Marcel Schingtienne to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Venezia23% probability@5.97PinnacleEV+39%reference odds
- 2 · Venezia23% probability@5.40NordicbetEV+26%reference odds
- 2 · Venezia23% probability@5.35BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Atalanta | X | 2 · Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.60 | 4.00 | EV+ 24% 5.35 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | 4.05 | EV+ 26% 5.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 4.08 | EV+ 39% 5.97 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesAtalanta 1Draw 1Venezia 0
Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Atalanta have lost 3 in a row.
- Venezia have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Atalanta
Venezia
Atalanta (5–7)
Venezia (2–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Atalanta
Venezia
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Atalanta
Venezia
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Atalanta | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 0 |
| xPoints | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| xG per match | 0.86 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.09 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.54 |
| Playing style | Atalanta | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| xT per match | 0.98 | 0.89 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.14 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 451 | 387 |
| Passes against per match | 495 | 264 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.2 | 24.5 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Atalanta | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.4 |
| Other | Atalanta | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta) | Filip Stanković (Venezia) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 11 |
| Save % | 78% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Atalanta vs Venezia according to our model?
The model gives Atalanta a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atalanta 54%, draw 23%, Venezia 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.