Lazio vs Monza Prediction: Home win 55% (11 Oct 2026)

Serie A11 October 2026Stadio Olimpico, Roma16°7 km/h

Läs på svenska

LazioBalanced & physical

MonzaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Lazio (55%)Best value by the model: 2 · Monza @ 5.95 (+22 %)

1 · Lazio 55%X 25%20% Monza · 2

55%

25%

20%

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Lazio – Monza

Anna Karlsson · 3 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

55% is a compelling figure. That's the model's probability for Lazio to take all three points against Monza. With the home side unbeaten in their last five league outings, momentum seems to favor them. Yet, Monza's direct style could pose challenges, especially given their xG advantage at 1.8 per match compared to Lazio's 1.3. These attacking metrics should not be overlooked, particularly in a tight contest like this.

Despite Lazio's head-to-head dominance, with two wins in as many encounters since 2021, the sample size is too small to decisively inform this matchup. Instead, Monza's potential to disrupt through direct play and their superior xPoints hint at a more complex narrative than the odds might suggest. Lazio's anticipated goal output stands at 1.76, against Monza's 1.01, pointing towards a narrow victory. Yet, the slim margin leaves room for variance, and the 11% likelihood for a 1-1 draw underscores this tension.

For the betting desk, the sharpest edge lies with Monza at odds of 5.75 with LeoVegas, offering an 18% edge by the model's rating. While the over/under leans slightly towards over 2.5 goals at 52%, the true intrigue lies in whether Monza can snatch a result against the odds.

Lazio

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #13xGA #6xT #12xP/match #8Points #8

Key players

Nuno TavaresLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
Mattia ZaccagniLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.26
Boulaye DiaFxG 0.00 · xT -0.01

Monza

Form LLDLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #8xP/match #4Points #16

Key players

Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa VarelaFxG 0.62 · xT 0.04
Samuele BirindelliLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.21
Jay Steven RobinsonLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Lazio – Monza

Predicted score matrix

Monza →

Lazio →

0–06.6%

0–16.0%

0–23.2%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.7%

1–111.5%

1–25.6%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.7%

2–19.8%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.7%

3–15.7%

3–22.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.7%

4+–13.8%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,76–1,01

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@1.89

Over 2,552%

@1.93EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lazio to win55%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lazio to win55%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Mattia Zaccagni to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Mattia Zaccagni to score40%
Lorenzo Lucchesi to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Monza20% probability@5.95NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
2 · Monza20% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
2 · Monza20% probability@5.75LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lazio	X	2 · Monza
Betsafe	1.58	3.85	EV+ 21% 5.90
LeoVegas	1.57	4.00	EV+ 18% 5.75
Nordicbet	1.60	3.90	EV+ 22% 5.95

Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Lazio 2Draw 0Monza 0

Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lazio

Monza

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lazio (6–3)

Monza (8–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lazio

Monza

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lazio

Monza

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lazio	Monza
Points	10	4
xPoints	6	8.5
xG per match	1.3	1.8
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.23

Playing style	Lazio	Monza
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.59	0.53
xT per match	0.98	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	1
Won balls, offensive half	19	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.2
Entries into the box per match	9	12
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.68
Passes per match	351	331
Passes against per match	434	407
Switches of play per match	20.5	26.5
Long balls per match	22	33

Set pieces	Lazio	Monza
xG from free kicks	0	0.06
Corners per match	4.9	4.5
Corners against per match	4.2	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.24	0.43

Other	Lazio	Monza
Throw-in control	0.68	0.76

The goalkeepers	Christos Mandas (Lazio)	Noel Max Joachim Törnqvist (Monza)
Saves	16	7
Save %	84%	88%
xG prevented	88%	91%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lazio

Fixtures, form & tips

Monza

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lazio vs Monza according to our model?

The model gives Lazio a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lazio 55%, draw 25%, Monza 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.