01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Udinese or draw (X2)62%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Serie AStadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino13°5 km/h
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TorinoCounter-attacks & crossesvs
UdineseBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Udinese (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.76 (+14 %)
Torino vs Udinese · Serie A
1 · Torino 34%X 31%35% Udinese · 2
34%
31%
35%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Torino – Udinese
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
A razor-thin matchup on the cards: Torino and Udinese approach this Serie A clash with nearly identical probabilities, with the visitors holding a slight model lean at 35%. Such balance is rare, and it's the details within that offer the real intrigue. Despite Udinese's three-game losing skid, their underlying numbers suggest otherwise, showcasing an xPoints edge of 6.1 to Torino's 3.6.
Torino has leaned heavily on counter-attacks and crosses, a strategy that has served them well in their recent head-to-head encounters, winning five of the last ten meetings. Yet, their xG per match tells a different story, lagging behind at 0.84 to Udinese's 1.3. This discrepancy highlights a potential mismatch between finishing quality and chance creation. Udinese's balanced and physical approach might just harness this inefficiency, as their xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball stands slightly superior at 0.23.
The expected goals figures, 1.41 for the hosts and 1.37 for the visitors, mirror the broader statistical stalemate. Both teams have an equal xGA of 1.8, suggesting similar defensive solidity overall. This might be an area where Torino could capitalize, provided they break out of their low xG mold.
Given the narrow margins and Udinese's recent struggles, the 1-1 scoreline seems plausible, supported by a 12% probability. However, with the model leaning towards Udinese and their superior xPoints, a hard-fought 2-1 victory for the visitors is not out of reach. The over 2.5 goals market, favored at 52%, speaks to the latent attacking potential on both sides, yet the odds suggest a cautious approach.
Despite recent form, Udinese's xG superiority and model lean could make backing them a tempting proposition. While no bet is ever guaranteed, the numbers here point strongly in Udinese's direction.
TorinoForm LLWLD
League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #16xP/match #20Points #14
Key players
- Che AdamsFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
- Rolando MandragoraCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.04
- Saúl CocoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
UdineseForm DWLLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #6xP/match #14Points #13
Key players
- Idrissa GueyeFxG 0.58 · xT -0.02
- Mërgim VojvodaRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.22
- Hassane KamaraLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Torino – Udinese
Predicted score matrix
Udinese →
Torino →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.6%
0–18.2%
0–25.8%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–08.4%
1–112.3%
1–28.2%
1–33.7%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.2%
2–18.5%
2–25.8%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.9%
3–14.0%
3–22.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,41–1,37
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@1.78
Over 2,552%
@2.07EV+8%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Udinese or draw (X2)62%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Keinan Vincent Joseph Davis to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Giovanni Pablo Simeone Baldini to score26%
- James Bright Adusei Abankwah to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.530% probability@3.76BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- Over 3.530% probability@3.76NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- Over 4.515% probability@7.58BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Torino | X | 2 · Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.32 | EV+ 1% 3.30 | EV+ 8% 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | 2.35 | EV+ 3% 3.35 | EV+ 9% 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | EV+ 3% 3.36 | EV+ 10% 3.11 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
10 matchesTorino 5Draw 2Udinese 3
Goals: 13–11 (⌀ 2,4)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Udinese Calcio have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Torino
Udinese
Torino (5–8)
Udinese (8–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Torino
Udinese
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Torino
Udinese
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Torino | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 4 |
| xPoints | 3.6 | 6.1 |
| xG per match | 0.84 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| Playing style | Torino | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 421 | 363 |
| Passes against per match | 362 | 452 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.5 | 26.9 |
| Long balls per match | 21 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Torino | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 6.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.24 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.53 |
| Other | Torino | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Diego Mascardi (Torino) | Maduka Okoye (Udinese) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 21 |
| Save % | 64% | 66% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Torino vs Udinese according to our model?
The model gives Udinese a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Torino 34%, draw 31%, Udinese 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.