Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction: Home win 37% (10 Oct 2026)

Serie A10 October 2026Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova14°14 km/h

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GenoaBalanced & physical

FiorentinaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Genoa (37%)

1 · Genoa 37%X 31%32% Fiorentina · 2

37%

31%

32%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Genoa – Fiorentina

Sofia Andersson · 3 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The model leans towards a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, aligning with the 13% likelihood. — This conflicts with the stated model lean (Genoa). Corrected text below:

The numbers paint a picture of a match that could easily tilt either way, but with a slight nod towards Genoa. The hosts have a strong edge in xPoints, suggesting they might have been underperforming relative to their expected outcomes. Despite having a lower xG per match compared to Fiorentina (0.83 vs 1.1), their defensive sturdiness, with a significantly better xGA per match (1.2 vs 1.7), might prove pivotal in stifling the visitors' attack.

The head-to-head history is limited with just four matches since 2021, where Genoa has failed to secure a win. However, given the small sample size, this should weigh less than the current form and xG data. Both teams are noted for their balanced and physical playing styles, which could lead to a match defined by midfield battles and set-piece opportunities.

Expected goals for both sides are nearly identical, with Genoa at 1.25 and Fiorentina at 1.23. This suggests a close contest, likely to produce a low-scoring affair. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though the model's overall lean favors Genoa to win. With a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals, bettors might look at the under as a reasonable expectation.

From a betting perspective, the real value lies with Genoa at odds of 3.1 with LeoVegas, reflecting a substantial 16% edge according to the model. The draw also presents a smaller yet notable value at odds of 3.35, offering a 4% edge. For those seeking a data-backed punt, backing Genoa at those odds could be the sharpest play.

Genoa

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #19xGA #5xT #20xP/match #12Points #18

Key players

Morten FrendrupCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01
Johan VasquezCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
Leo OstigardCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.02

Fiorentina

Form DLLLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #10xP/match #15Points #19

Key players

Franco MastantuonoRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.11
Mateo PellegrinoFxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
Cher NdourRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Genoa – Fiorentina

Predicted score matrix

Fiorentina →

Genoa →

0–08.8%

0–19.9%

0–26.3%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.0%

1–010.1%

1–113.3%

1–27.9%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.6%

2–18.1%

2–24.9%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.7%

3–13.4%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,25–1,23

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.81

Over 2,545%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Genoa or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Genoa or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Mohameth Djibril Ibrahima Sow to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Mohameth Djibril Ibrahima Sow to score20%
Morten Wetche Frendrup to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Genoa37% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
1 · Genoa37% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
1 · Genoa37% probability@3.10LeoVegasEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Genoa	X	2 · Fiorentina
Betsafe	EV+ 18% 3.15	EV+ 2% 3.30	2.28
LeoVegas	EV+ 16% 3.10	EV+ 4% 3.35	2.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 19% 3.20	EV+ 2% 3.30	2.28

Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Genoa 0Draw 2Fiorentina 2

Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Genoa

Fiorentina

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Genoa (3–10)

Fiorentina (2–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Genoa

Fiorentina

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Genoa

Fiorentina

The teams in numbers

Performance	Genoa	Fiorentina
Points	1	1
xPoints	6.6	4.7
xG per match	0.83	1.1
xGA per match	1.2	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.07	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.38

Playing style	Genoa	Fiorentina
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.31
Field tilt	0.35	0.47
xT per match	0.46	1.1
xTA per match	0.96	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	21	21
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.2
Entries into the box per match	8	12
Entries into the box against	15	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.68
Passes per match	353	320
Passes against per match	400	424
Switches of play per match	17.8	16.1
Long balls per match	22	26

Set pieces	Genoa	Fiorentina
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	5	4.5
Corners against per match	4.8	4.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.46	0.41

Other	Genoa	Fiorentina
Throw-in control	0.67	0.65

The goalkeepers	Justin Bijlow (Genoa)	David De Gea (Fiorentina)
Saves	13	13
Save %	56%	56%
xG prevented	35%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Genoa

Fixtures, form & tips

Fiorentina

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Genoa vs Fiorentina according to our model?

The model gives Genoa a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Genoa 37%, draw 31%, Fiorentina 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.