01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Roma or draw (X2)64%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Serie AStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como14°13 km/h
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ComoPossession controlvs
RomaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Roma (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.67 (+7 %)
Como vs Roma · Serie A
1 · Como 34%X 28%38% Roma · 2
34%
28%
38%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Como – Roma
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
AS Roma's unbeaten streak is now at 12 league matches, and they've managed to find the net in 20 consecutive games. This offensive reliability shapes the narrative ahead of their clash with Como, who are no pushovers themselves. The hosts have shown they can stand toe-to-toe with Roma, winning half of their head-to-head encounters since 2021, though this is from a limited sample of just four matches.
In terms of style, Como's possession control will be put to the test against Roma's high press. The visitors' defensive solidity is underscored by their xGA of just 0.75 per match, the hallmark of a well-drilled unit. But on the offensive front, Roma's xG of 2.8 per match suggests a propensity to create high-quality chances, which could spell trouble for Como's back line.
The game is poised to be a closely contested affair. The model slightly favors Roma with a 38% win probability, compared to 34% for Como. However, the most likely outcome appears to be a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 11%. This aligns with the expected goals for each side: Como at 1.56 and Roma at 1.66. Given these numbers, a 1-2 victory for the visitors also seems plausible.
For those interested in betting angles, the model indicates an over 2.5 goals bet offers a 2% value edge at odds of 1.64 with LeoVegas. With a 62% likelihood of surpassing this total, and both teams' attacking credentials, the over bet is a solid play here. While the draw at odds of 3.55 also presents a tempting 1% edge, the real value lies in the goal market, considering the attacking form both teams exhibit.
ComoForm DWWWL
League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #4xP/match #11Points #7
Key players
- Anastasios DouvikasFxG 0.62 · xT -0.11
- Nico PazCMxG 0.34 · xT 0.19
- Assane DiaoRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.14
RomaForm WWWWD
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Matias SouleLWxG 0.60 · xT 0.32
- Donyell MalenFxG 1.28 · xT 0.13
- Paulo DybalaRWxG 0.38 · xT 0.56
Match prediction: Como – Roma
Predicted score matrix
Roma →
Como →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.3%
0–16.3%
0–25.5%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–05.9%
1–110.7%
1–28.6%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.8%
2–18.1%
2–26.7%
2–33.7%
2–4+2.2%
3
3–02.5%
3–14.2%
3–23.5%
3–31.9%
3–4+1.2%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.9%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-16%
Expected goals
1,56–1,66
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.21
Over 2,562%
@1.68EV+5%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Roma or draw (X2)64%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Donyell Malen to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Assane Diao Diaoune to score31%
- Bryan Cristante to be booked27%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.540% probability@2.67BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- Over 3.540% probability@2.67NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
- Over 4.522% probability@4.78BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Como | X | 2 · Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| LeoVegas | 2.55 | EV+ 1% 3.55 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesComo 2Draw 0Roma 2
Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
- AS Roma have scored in 20 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Como
Roma
Como (9–6)
Roma (14–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Como
Roma
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Como
Roma
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Como | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 13 |
| xPoints | 6.9 | 11.5 |
| xG per match | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.75 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.34 | 0.87 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Como | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.66 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 24 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.85 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 535 | 479 |
| Passes against per match | 303 | 330 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.2 | 36.5 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Como | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 8 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.66 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| Other | Como | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Jean Butez (Como) | Mile Svilar (Roma) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 14 |
| Save % | 62% | 82% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 74% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Como vs Roma according to our model?
The model gives Roma a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Como 34%, draw 28%, Roma 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.