Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

J1 League15 August 2026Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka28°8 km/h

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Avispa FukuokaBalanced & physical

3–0

Cerezo OsakaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Cerezo Osaka (35%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.30 (+6 %)

1 · Avispa Fukuoka 32%X 32%35% Cerezo Osaka · 2

32%

35%

Analysis: Avispa Fukuoka – Cerezo Osaka

Erik Lindberg · 14 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Cerezo Osaka have scored in 13 consecutive league matches, a testament to their offensive consistency. This carries weight as they travel to face Avispa Fukuoka, a team known for their balanced and physical style. Despite the host's defensive attributes, Cerezo's ability to find the net may tip the scales in their favor, especially as they also dominate the head-to-head matchup, winning 4 of the past 6 meetings since 2023.

Avispa Fukuoka, however, shouldn't be underestimated. With an expected goals tally of 1.09, they are narrowly behind Cerezo Osaka's 1.22, suggesting the home side is more than capable of creating chances. Yet, with both teams having identical expected goals against (xGA) of 1.2, it's clear defenses could grind each other down. The match model gives a slight edge to Cerezo Osaka with a 35% win probability, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair.

With the possibility of rain or strong wind during the match already factored into the model’s projections, the forecast leans towards a cautious contest. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1 echo this sentiment. The 41% chance of over 2.5 goals is distinctly overshadowed by the value found in the under, particularly the under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.787 with Pinnacle, which presents a 6% edge as per the model.

Cerezo Osaka's counter-attacking approach coupled with their effective use of crosses might just edge out the physicality of Avispa Fukuoka, leading to a narrow 0-1 victory for the visitors. For those looking for a sharper angle, consider the under 1.5 goals available at odds of 3.2 with Betsafe and Betsson, each offering a 4% value edge. This line embraces the likelihood of a defensive tussle with minimal scoring.

Avispa Fukuoka

Form WDWLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #8xT #12xP/match #13Points #18

Key players

Wellington Luís de SousaFxG 0.38 · xT 0.08
Tomoya MikiCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.11
Kazuya KonnoRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.16

Cerezo Osaka

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #19xGA #9xT #17xP/match #11Points #6

Key players

Shunta TanakaCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Shinnosuke HatanakaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
Dion-Johan Chai CoolsCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03

Final score

3 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Avispa Fukuoka 32% · Draw 32% · Cerezo Osaka 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Cerezo OsakaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,09fair 13,73-34 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Avispa FukuokaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,19fair 16,95-46 %

Miss

Match prediction: Avispa Fukuoka – Cerezo Osaka

Predicted score matrix

Cerezo Osaka →

Avispa Fukuoka →

0–010.3%

0–111.7%

0–27.4%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.5%

1–113.6%

1–28.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–05.9%

2–17.2%

2–24.4%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.2%

3–12.6%

3–21.6%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.1-010%
4.0-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,09–1,22

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,559%

@1.75EV+4%

Over 2,541%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cerezo Osaka or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cerezo Osaka or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Solomon Sakuragawa to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Solomon Sakuragawa to score25%
Keiya Shiihashi to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw32% probability@3.30PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.559% probability@1.75BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.559% probability@1.75BetssonEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Avispa Fukuoka	X	2 · Cerezo Osaka
Betsafe	2.62	3.10	2.62
Betsson	2.62	3.10	2.62
Nordicbet	2.62	3.10	2.62
Pinnacle	2.68	EV+ 6% 3.30	2.78

Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:20

Odds movement

1-1 %

38 %33 %

2.72 → 2.68

X+2 %

32 %27 %

3.22 → 3.30

2+4 %

38 %33 %

2.67 → 2.78

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Avispa Fukuoka 2Draw 0Cerezo Osaka 4

Goals: 5–11 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Cerezo Osaka dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 6 meetings.
Cerezo Osaka have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Avispa Fukuoka

Cerezo Osaka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Avispa Fukuoka (0–1)

Cerezo Osaka (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Cerezo Osaka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Cerezo Osaka

The teams in numbers

Performance	Avispa Fukuoka	Cerezo Osaka
Points	0	3
xPoints	1.1	1.1
xG per match	0.6	0.58
xGA per match	1.2	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.02	0.05
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.21

Playing style	Avispa Fukuoka	Cerezo Osaka
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.4	0.32
xT per match	0.91	0.69
xTA per match	0.82	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.5
Entries into the box per match	11	7
Entries into the box against	14	19
Pass completion %	0.66	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.68
Passes per match	263	316
Passes against per match	318	315
Switches of play per match	15.4	20.4
Long balls per match	20	29

Set pieces	Avispa Fukuoka	Cerezo Osaka
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3.1	4.9
Corners against per match	1	7.8
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	1	0.5

Other	Avispa Fukuoka	Cerezo Osaka
Throw-in control	0.76	0.85

The goalkeepers	Kennedy Mikuni (Avispa Fukuoka)	Kosuke Nakamura (Cerezo Osaka)
Saves	2	3
Save %	100%	75%
xG prevented	100%	54%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Avispa Fukuoka

Fixtures, form & tips

Cerezo Osaka

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka according to our model?

The model gives Cerezo Osaka a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Avispa Fukuoka 32%, draw 32%, Cerezo Osaka 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.