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    Fagiano OkayamaFagiano OkayamaPossession & high press
    1–0
    V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen NagasakiPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Fagiano Okayama (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · V-Varen Nagasaki @ 5.36 (+43 %)

    Fagiano Okayama – V-Varen Nagasaki · J1 League

    1 · Fagiano Okayama 43%X 30%27% V-Varen Nagasaki · 2

    Analysis: Fagiano Okayama – V-Varen Nagasaki

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    43% is the magic number for Fagiano Okayama, according to the model probabilities, which gives them a solid edge over V-Varen Nagasaki's 27%. But don't be fooled by the percentages on paper; V-Varen Nagasaki has a knack for defying expectations, having already bagged 3 points compared to Okayama's zero. The underlying currents of this match run deeper, though, with Okayama's expected goals against (xGA) of 0.58 per match suggesting a more resilient defense compared to Nagasaki's 0.95.

    V-Varen Nagasaki may have the edge in points and expected goals (xG), but the fine margins point towards a low-scoring affair. With a mere 40% probability for over 2.5 goals, the stage is set for a match where defences could reign supreme. Fagiano Okayama’s high press and possession style might press the life out of Nagasaki’s possession control strategy, stifling any attempt at fluid attacking play.

    A small sample size does suggest a level of caution in head-to-head conclusions, but the numbers are betting on Fagiano's defensive solidity and a penchant for controlling matches. The model's most likely scorelines are 1-0 and 1-1, each with a 13% chance, implying that we might see a tussle decided by a single moment of brilliance or a lapse in concentration.

    Fagiano Okayama opens with a clear advantage in the model's eyes, though the xPoints and xG show an intriguing edge to V-Varen Nagasaki. Despite this, the under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.714 with Pinnacle appears as the sharp angle for value-driven bettors. With the model rating it a 60% chance, there's a 2% edge that could tip the scales for those looking to cash in on a tightly contested matchup.

    Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
    Form LDLWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #2xT #5xP/match #10Points #16
    Key players
    • Hiroshi OmoriCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.15
    • Kosuke ShiraiRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.56
    • Yugo TatsutaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.05
    V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen Nagasaki
    Form W
    League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #11xP/match #6Points #7
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Fagiano Okayama 43% · Draw 30% · V-Varen Nagasaki 27%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - V-Varen NagasakiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 21,02fair 23,75-11 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Fagiano OkayamaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,31fair 11,37-44 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Fagiano Okayama – V-Varen Nagasaki

    Predicted score matrix

    V-Varen Nagasaki →
    Fagiano Okayama →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.4%
    0–19.0%
    0–24.4%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–013.3%
    1–113.1%
    1–26.0%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.3%
    2–18.7%
    2–24.1%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–04.2%
    3–14.0%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.0%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-013%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-19%
    Expected goals
    1,37–0,94
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,560%
    @1.72EV+2%
    Over 2,540%
    @1.98

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Fagiano Okayama or draw (1X)75%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    59%

    Fair odds

    1.69

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Fagiano Okayama or draw (1X)75%
    • Under 2.5 goals60%
    • Eiji Miyamoto to score16%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals40%
    • Thiago Santos Santana to score19%
    • Hijiri Onaga to be booked18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · V-Varen Nagasaki27% probability@5.36PinnacleEV+43%reference odds
    • 2 · V-Varen Nagasaki27% probability@5.10BetsafeEV+36%reference odds
    • 2 · V-Varen Nagasaki27% probability@5.10NordicbetEV+36%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Fagiano OkayamaX2 · V-Varen Nagasaki
    Betsafe1.62
    EV+ 4%
    3.50
    EV+ 36%
    5.10
    Betsson1.65
    EV+ 4%
    3.50
    EV+ 31%
    4.90
    Nordicbet1.62
    EV+ 4%
    3.50
    EV+ 36%
    5.10
    Pinnacle1.71
    EV+ 11%
    3.71
    EV+ 43%
    5.36

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:20

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Fagiano Okayama win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 2.20 to 1.71 (−22%).

    1-22 %
    60 %40 %

    2.20 → 1.71

    X+14 %
    38 %18 %

    3.26 → 3.71

    2+57 %
    33 %13 %

    3.42 → 5.36

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Fagiano Okayama
    V-Varen Nagasaki
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Fagiano Okayama (1–2)
    V-Varen Nagasaki (2–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Fagiano Okayama
    Oberdan Alionço de Lima: 41 passningar, xT 0.04LimaKosuke Shirai: 40 passningar, xT 0.57ShiraiHiroshi Omori: 36 passningar, xT 0.16OmoriYugo Tatsuta: 36 passningar, xT 0.06TatsutaAtaru Esaka: 35 passningar, xT -0.01EsakaYoshitake Suzuki: 35 passningar, xT 0.02SuzukiEiji Miyamoto: 23 passningar, xT 0.08MiyamotoMasaya Matsumoto: 18 passningar, xT -0.01MatsumotoSang Ho Na: 15 passningar, xT 0.03NaShun Matsuda: 13 passningar, xT 0.03MatsudaNoah Kenshin Browne: 10 passningar, xT 0.01Browne
    V-Varen Nagasaki
    Motoki Hasegawa: 35 passningar, xT 0.13HasegawaTakuma Ominami: 34 passningar, xT 0.17OminamiHotaru Yamaguchi: 30 passningar, xT -0.01YamaguchiHijiri Onaga: 27 passningar, xT 0.16OnagaRiku Yamada: 24 passningar, xT 0.06YamadaKanta Doi: 21 passningar, xT 0.04DoiMasahiro Sekiguchi: 17 passningar, xT 0.13SekiguchiCarlos Eduardo Bendini Giusti: 12 passningar, xT 0GiustiMasaaki Goto: 12 passningar, xT 0GotoThiago Santos Santana: 11 passningar, xT -0.03SantanaIkki Arai: 8 passningar, xT 0.01Arai
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Fagiano Okayama
    Oberdan Alionço de Lima: 41 passningar, xT 0.04LimaKosuke Shirai: 40 passningar, xT 0.57ShiraiHiroshi Omori: 36 passningar, xT 0.16OmoriYugo Tatsuta: 36 passningar, xT 0.06TatsutaAtaru Esaka: 35 passningar, xT -0.01EsakaYoshitake Suzuki: 35 passningar, xT 0.02SuzukiEiji Miyamoto: 23 passningar, xT 0.08MiyamotoMasaya Matsumoto: 18 passningar, xT -0.01MatsumotoSang Ho Na: 15 passningar, xT 0.03NaShun Matsuda: 13 passningar, xT 0.03MatsudaNoah Kenshin Browne: 10 passningar, xT 0.01Browne
    V-Varen Nagasaki
    Motoki Hasegawa: 35 passningar, xT 0.13HasegawaTakuma Ominami: 34 passningar, xT 0.17OminamiHotaru Yamaguchi: 30 passningar, xT -0.01YamaguchiHijiri Onaga: 27 passningar, xT 0.16OnagaRiku Yamada: 24 passningar, xT 0.06YamadaKanta Doi: 21 passningar, xT 0.04DoiMasahiro Sekiguchi: 17 passningar, xT 0.13SekiguchiCarlos Eduardo Bendini Giusti: 12 passningar, xT 0GiustiMasaaki Goto: 12 passningar, xT 0GotoThiago Santos Santana: 11 passningar, xT -0.03SantanaIkki Arai: 8 passningar, xT 0.01Arai

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
    Points03
    xPoints1.51.8
    xG per match1.21.4
    xGA per match0.580.95
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.49
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.050.14
    Playing styleFagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.680.37
    xT per match1.41
    xTA per match0.690.71
    Won balls, offensive half3125
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.320.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.3
    Entries into the box per match1910
    Entries into the box against711
    Pass completion %0.710.7
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.69
    Passes per match315263
    Passes against per match316421
    Switches of play per match25.314.4
    Long balls per match3130
    Set piecesFagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match7.87.2
    Corners against per match4.94.1
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.020
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.29
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.75
    OtherFagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
    Throw-in control0.90.68
    The goalkeepersShun Matsuda (Fagiano Okayama)Takuma Ominami (V-Varen Nagasaki)
    Saves22
    Save %50%100%
    xG prevented41%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Fagiano Okayama
    Fixtures, form & tips
    V-Varen Nagasaki
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki according to our model?

    The model gives Fagiano Okayama a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fagiano Okayama 43%, draw 30%, V-Varen Nagasaki 27%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.