Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction: Away win 43% (10 Oct 2026)

J1 League10 October 2026Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka24°9 km/h

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Avispa FukuokaBalanced & physical

Fagiano OkayamaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Fagiano Okayama (43%)

1 · Avispa Fukuoka 28%X 28%43% Fagiano Okayama · 2

28%

43%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Avispa Fukuoka – Fagiano Okayama

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

FAKTA indicate no specific bookmaker odds (e.g., 2.30 with Bet365) are provided, so this detail is unsupported and should be removed.

CORRECTED TEXT:

Fagiano Okayama's high-pressing style has been a game-changer in the J1 League, especially evident through their recent performances that have earned them a solid 13 points. While their possession game often dictates the tempo, it's their defensive prowess that truly sets them apart. Conceding just 0.83 expected goals against per match, the visitors have built a reputation for stifling their opposition's creativity, a stark contrast to Avispa Fukuoka's more permissive 1.5 xGA.

Despite the small sample size of two head-to-head encounters since 2023, with Avispa claiming one win and one draw, the broader indicators favor Fagiano Okayama. The model gives them a 43% chance to win, reflecting a significant edge over the hosts, who are pegged at just 28%. This is not merely a matter of recent form but a structural advantage that Okayama has managed to maintain.

In terms of goal-scoring potential, both teams show similar expected goals at 1.1 per match, suggesting that while Fagiano Okayama holds a strategic upper hand, it might not translate to a goal fest. The model assigns a 45% probability to the match exceeding 2.5 goals, while the likelihood of both teams finding the net is an even 50%. These numbers suggest a closely contested affair with few goals, aligning well with the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1.

The betting angle sharpens when considering Fagiano Okayama's tactical discipline and superior defensive metrics, which present clear value on the visitors. Given the probability distribution and their high-press system, a narrow 0-1 victory for the visitors looks plausible. The under 2.5 goals bet also appears aligned with the expected goals and style clash, reinforcing the value on offer.

Avispa Fukuoka

Form LLDLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #16xP/match #11Points #18

Key players

Tomoya MikiCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
Yu HashimotoRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
Werik Silva PintoFxG 0.16 · xT 0.05

Fagiano Okayama

Form LWWWL

League ranking xG #13xGA #2xT #8xP/match #5Points #9

Key players

Lucas Marcos MeirelesFxG 0.29 · xT 0.04
Leonardo Andriel dos SantosFxG 0.24 · xT 0.00
Sang Ho NaFxG 0.06 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Avispa Fukuoka – Fagiano Okayama

Predicted score matrix

Fagiano Okayama →

Avispa Fukuoka →

0–08.7%

0–111.3%

0–28.1%

0–33.8%

0–4+1.8%

1–08.7%

1–113.0%

1–28.8%

1–34.1%

1–4+1.9%

2–04.9%

2–16.9%

2–24.8%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.1%

3–01.8%

3–12.5%

3–21.7%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.1-09%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,09–1,39

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.57

Over 2,545%

@2.25EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Fagiano Okayama or draw (X2)71%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Fagiano Okayama or draw (X2)71%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Leonardo Andriel dos Santos to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Leonardo Andriel dos Santos to score26%
Tomoya Miki to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Fagiano Okayama43% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
2 · Fagiano Okayama43% probability@2.38NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
2 · Fagiano Okayama43% probability@2.38LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Avispa Fukuoka	X	2 · Fagiano Okayama
Betsafe	3.10	2.85	EV+ 3% 2.38
LeoVegas	3.05	2.95	EV+ 3% 2.38
Nordicbet	3.10	2.85	EV+ 3% 2.38

Odds updated 3 Oct, 10:36

Odds movement

10 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.10

X0 %

35 %30 %

2.85 → 2.85

20 %

41 %36 %

2.38 → 2.38

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Avispa Fukuoka 1Draw 1Fagiano Okayama 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Avispa Fukuoka

Fagiano Okayama

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Avispa Fukuoka (9–12)

Fagiano Okayama (11–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Fagiano Okayama

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Avispa Fukuoka

Fagiano Okayama

The teams in numbers

Performance	Avispa Fukuoka	Fagiano Okayama
Points	4	13
xPoints	10.8	13.5
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	1.5	0.83
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.41	0.14

Playing style	Avispa Fukuoka	Fagiano Okayama
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.38	0.51
xT per match	0.79	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.67
Won balls, offensive half	26	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	14	9
Pass completion %	0.67	0.67
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.64
Passes per match	245	259
Passes against per match	417	400
Switches of play per match	15.9	13.7
Long balls per match	27	24

Set pieces	Avispa Fukuoka	Fagiano Okayama
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	4.7	6.1
Corners against per match	3.2	3.9
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.35	0.53

Other	Avispa Fukuoka	Fagiano Okayama
Throw-in control	0.79	0.66

The goalkeepers	Yuma Obata (Avispa Fukuoka)	Lennart Franklin Moser (Fagiano Okayama)
Saves	11	9
Save %	85%	53%
xG prevented	89%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Avispa Fukuoka

Fixtures, form & tips

Fagiano Okayama

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama according to our model?

The model gives Fagiano Okayama a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Avispa Fukuoka 28%, draw 28%, Fagiano Okayama 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.