Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction: Home win 40% (10 Oct 2026)

J1 League10 October 2026Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka22°9 km/h

Läs på svenska

Cerezo OsakaBalanced & physical

Yokohama F. MarinosPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Cerezo Osaka (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.12 (+6 %)

1 · Cerezo Osaka 40%X 27%33% Yokohama F. Marinos · 2

40%

27%

33%

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Cerezo Osaka – Yokohama F. Marinos

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: A 13-match scoring streak defines Yokohama F. Marinos' recent form, giving them a slight edge despite the model's lean towards Cerezo Osaka. The expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Cerezo at 1.38 and the visitors at 1.31, highlighting the narrow margins between these sides. Historically, the head-to-head since 2023 favors Yokohama slightly, with a 3-2 win record in six encounters, a small sample that carries less weight than current forms and expected goals.

Cerezo's balanced and physical approach contrasts with Yokohama's possession control, setting a tactical clash that might suppress the goal count. Yet, a historical average of 3.0 goals per meeting hints at potential volatility. While the over 2.5 goals sits evenly at 50%, the model suggests a 13% likelihood for a 1-1 draw, a scoreline that aligns with both teams finding the net at a 55% chance.

For savvy bettors, the model's lean towards a Cerezo win at 40% implies possible value against Yokohama's edge in points and xG metrics, though there might be a sliver of overlooked value here if the hosts can exploit their physicality and disrupt Yokohama's rhythm.

Cerezo Osaka

Form LWDLD

League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #13xP/match #18Points #11

Key players

Takumi NakamuraRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Solomon SakuragawaFxG 0.25 · xT -0.04
Jackson Alexander IrvineCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.15

Yokohama F. Marinos

Form LDWDW

League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #19xP/match #7Points #6

Key players

Kaina TanimuraFxG 0.54 · xT 0.01
Jeison QuinonesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
Taisei InoueRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Cerezo Osaka – Yokohama F. Marinos

Predicted score matrix

Yokohama F. Marinos →

Cerezo Osaka →

0–07.2%

0–18.6%

0–25.8%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.1%

1–112.7%

1–28.0%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.5%

2–18.5%

2–25.5%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.0%

3–13.9%

3–22.5%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-09%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,38–1,31

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.12EV+6%

Over 2,550%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cerezo Osaka or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cerezo Osaka or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Solomon Sakuragawa to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Solomon Sakuragawa to score31%
Jeison Estiven Quiñónes Botina to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.550% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.550% probability@2.12LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.550% probability@2.12NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cerezo Osaka	X	2 · Yokohama F. Marinos
Betsafe	2.12	3.45	2.95
LeoVegas	2.12	3.55	2.95
Nordicbet	2.12	3.45	2.95

Odds updated 3 Oct, 09:36

Odds movement

10 %

46 %41 %

2.12 → 2.12

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.55

20 %

34 %29 %

2.95 → 2.95

Over 2,50 %

59 %54 %

1.64 → 1.64

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Cerezo Osaka 2Draw 1Yokohama F. Marinos 3

Goals: 6–12 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Yokohama F. Marinos have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cerezo Osaka

Yokohama F. Marinos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cerezo Osaka (7–12)

Yokohama F. Marinos (13–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cerezo Osaka

Yokohama F. Marinos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cerezo Osaka

Yokohama F. Marinos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cerezo Osaka	Yokohama F. Marinos
Points	11	14
xPoints	7.6	12.6
xG per match	0.97	1.4
xGA per match	1.7	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.24

Playing style	Cerezo Osaka	Yokohama F. Marinos
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.55	0.48
xT per match	0.94	0.68
xTA per match	1.2	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	23	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.26
Entries into the box per match	12	9
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.68
Passes per match	407	297
Passes against per match	293	332
Switches of play per match	24.3	20.8
Long balls per match	34	27

Set pieces	Cerezo Osaka	Yokohama F. Marinos
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.06
Corners per match	6	3.4
Corners against per match	6.2	5
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.22
First touch, defensive corners %	0.46	0.65

Other	Cerezo Osaka	Yokohama F. Marinos
Throw-in control	0.79	0.6

The goalkeepers	Kosuke Nakamura (Cerezo Osaka)	Rubén Blanco Veiga (Yokohama F. Marinos)
Saves	24	11
Save %	67%	61%
xG prevented	39%	26%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cerezo Osaka

Fixtures, form & tips

Yokohama F. Marinos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos according to our model?

The model gives Cerezo Osaka a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cerezo Osaka 40%, draw 27%, Yokohama F. Marinos 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.