J1 LeagueKashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima19°11 km/h

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    Kashima AntlersKashima AntlersPossession control
    vs
    Gamba OsakaGamba OsakaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Kashima Antlers (61%)

    Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka · J1 League

    1 · Kashima Antlers 61%X 21%18% Gamba Osaka · 2

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    Analysis: Kashima Antlers – Gamba Osaka

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Kashima Antlers, with their possession-based play, look to assert control against a Gamba Osaka side also geared towards possession but struggling to find form. The hosts' tactical setup is primed to capitalize on Gamba's shaky defense, evident from the visitors' xGA of 2.0 per match. Expect the Antlers to dictate the tempo and create opportunities, leveraging their superior home record where they win 57% of the time.

    The numbers paint a clear picture: Kashima are riding the wave of a more solid recent performance, both in terms of actual and expected points. Their 13 points compared to Gamba's 6 isn't just a reflection of results but also an indicator of underlying quality, as shown by the xPoints margin. The guests, meanwhile, are reeling from three consecutive losses, suggesting a vulnerability that Kashima are well-placed to exploit.

    While the head-to-head record since 2023 is a small sample with Kashima leading 3-2-1, it does highlight the Antlers' historical edge. However, Gamba are not to be completely written off: the model gives them an 18% chance, and a draw sits at 21%, suggesting some resilience. Both teams share a 54% chance of scoring, hinting that Gamba might manage to breach Kashima's defense despite the odds.

    The value bet shines through on Kashima's side, underscored by their 61% win probability. Consider backing the hosts to win, recognizing their dominance and Gamba's current struggles. With most likely scorelines clustered around a Kashima win, expect a 2-0 or 2-1 result, leaning over 2.5 goals at 58%.

    Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers
    Form WLLLD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #2xP/match #15Points #8
    Key players
    • Leo CearaFxG 0.67 · xT 0.19
    • Yuma SuzukiFxG 0.10 · xT 0.01
    • Ikuma SekigawaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
    Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka
    Form DDLLL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #20xT #14xP/match #19Points #16
    Key players
    • Ryoya YamashitaRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.29
    • Ryotaro MeshinoLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.03
    • Issam JebaliCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Kashima Antlers – Gamba Osaka

    Predicted score matrix

    Gamba Osaka →
    Kashima Antlers →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.2%
    0–14.5%
    0–22.3%
    0–30.8%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–110.1%
    1–24.7%
    1–31.5%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.3%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–07.0%
    3–16.8%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–05.7%
    4+–15.5%
    4+–22.7%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.1-110%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.1-010%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    2,04–0,97
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @2.30
    Over 2,558%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Kashima Antlers to win61%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Kashima Antlers to win61%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score45%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score45%
    • Shuto Abe to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Kashima Antlers61% probability@1.89PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
    • 1 · Kashima Antlers61% probability@1.83LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
    • 1 · Kashima Antlers61% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Kashima AntlersX2 · Gamba Osaka
    Betsafe
    EV+ 11%
    1.82    		3.653.65
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 12%
    1.83    		3.753.60
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 11%
    1.82    		3.653.65
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 15%
    1.89    		3.803.75

    Odds updated 4 Oct, 12:35

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Kashima Antlers 3Draw 2Gamba Osaka 1
    Goals: 8–3 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Kashima Antlers dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
    • Gamba Osaka have lost 3 in a row.
    • Kashima Antlers win 57% of their home matches all-time (58 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Kashima Antlers
    Gamba Osaka
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Kashima Antlers (17–16)
    Gamba Osaka (8–14)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Kashima Antlers
    Naomichi Ueda: 251 passningar, xT 0.3UedaMatheus Bueno: 240 passningar, xT 0.39BuenoRyoya Ogawa: 224 passningar, xT 0.74OgawaGaku Shibasaki: 194 passningar, xT 0.32ShibasakiTae Hyeon Kim: 192 passningar, xT 0.36KimRikuto Hirose: 188 passningar, xT 1.24HiroseKento Misao: 172 passningar, xT 0.34MisaoIkuma Sekigawa: 157 passningar, xT 0.2SekigawaYuma Suzuki: 155 passningar, xT -0.12SuzukiYuta Matsumura: 124 passningar, xT 1.43MatsumuraTomoki Hayakawa: 118 passningar, xT 0.18Hayakawa
    Gamba Osaka
    Shinnosuke Nakatani: 239 passningar, xT 0.33NakataniShuto Abe: 212 passningar, xT 0.45AbeRyo Hatsuse: 173 passningar, xT 1.03HatsuseTokuma Suzuki: 141 passningar, xT 0.04SuzukiShogo Sasaki: 139 passningar, xT 0.17SasakiRyotaro Meshino: 133 passningar, xT 0.15MeshinoTakeru Kishimoto: 110 passningar, xT 0.29KishimotoShota Fukuoka: 101 passningar, xT 0.18FukuokaJun Ichimori: 89 passningar, xT 0.04IchimoriIssam Jebali: 79 passningar, xT 0.24JebaliRyoya Yamashita: 67 passningar, xT 0.3Yamashita
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Kashima Antlers
    Naomichi Ueda: 251 passningar, xT 0.3UedaMatheus Bueno: 240 passningar, xT 0.39BuenoRyoya Ogawa: 224 passningar, xT 0.74OgawaGaku Shibasaki: 194 passningar, xT 0.32ShibasakiTae Hyeon Kim: 192 passningar, xT 0.36KimRikuto Hirose: 188 passningar, xT 1.24HiroseKento Misao: 172 passningar, xT 0.34MisaoIkuma Sekigawa: 157 passningar, xT 0.2SekigawaYuma Suzuki: 155 passningar, xT -0.12SuzukiYuta Matsumura: 124 passningar, xT 1.43MatsumuraTomoki Hayakawa: 118 passningar, xT 0.18Hayakawa
    Gamba Osaka
    Shinnosuke Nakatani: 239 passningar, xT 0.33NakataniShuto Abe: 212 passningar, xT 0.45AbeRyo Hatsuse: 173 passningar, xT 1.03HatsuseTokuma Suzuki: 141 passningar, xT 0.04SuzukiShogo Sasaki: 139 passningar, xT 0.17SasakiRyotaro Meshino: 133 passningar, xT 0.15MeshinoTakeru Kishimoto: 110 passningar, xT 0.29KishimotoShota Fukuoka: 101 passningar, xT 0.18FukuokaJun Ichimori: 89 passningar, xT 0.04IchimoriIssam Jebali: 79 passningar, xT 0.24JebaliRyoya Yamashita: 67 passningar, xT 0.3Yamashita

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKashima AntlersGamba Osaka
    Points136
    xPoints97.4
    xG per match1.41.3
    xGA per match1.32
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.19
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.35
    Playing styleKashima AntlersGamba Osaka
    Build-up efficiency0.30.3
    Field tilt0.650.56
    xT per match1.50.92
    xTA per match0.741.2
    Won balls, offensive half2324
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.320.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.29
    Entries into the box per match1412
    Entries into the box against1015
    Pass completion %0.790.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.72
    Passes per match463403
    Passes against per match299290
    Switches of play per match31.526.9
    Long balls per match3830
    Set piecesKashima AntlersGamba Osaka
    xG from free kicks0.050.11
    Corners per match3.94.9
    Corners against per match3.97
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.26
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.65
    OtherKashima AntlersGamba Osaka
    Throw-in control0.760.73
    The goalkeepersTomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers)Jun Ichimori (Gamba Osaka)
    Saves2121
    Save %62%75%
    xG prevented31%61%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Kashima Antlers
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Gamba Osaka
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka according to our model?

    The model gives Kashima Antlers a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kashima Antlers 61%, draw 21%, Gamba Osaka 18%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.