Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-Pulse Prediction: Away win 39% (11 Oct 2026)

J1 League11 October 202618°12 km/h

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Mito HollyhockBalanced & physical

Shimizu S-PulseCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Shimizu S-Pulse (39%)

1 · Mito Hollyhock 33%X 28%39% Shimizu S-Pulse · 2

33%

28%

39%

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Analysis: Mito Hollyhock – Shimizu S-Pulse

Anna Karlsson · 3 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The TEXT contains unsupported claims not found in the FACTS: it labels Shimizu S-Pulse as "the visitors" (home/away status is not stated in the facts) and invents a specific betting odds figure ("2.50 with Bet365") that has no basis in the provided data.

Corrected TEXT:

A narrow 39% win probability for Shimizu S-Pulse sets the stage, highlighting their slight edge over Mito Hollyhock in this matchup. The model leans towards Shimizu S-Pulse, underpinned by their superior expected goals and points metrics. A slim advantage, but an advantage nonetheless, in a contest where every detail counts.

The most likely scorelines—1-1 at 13% and 0-1 and 1-0 at 10% each—emphasize a closely fought battle, with Shimizu's counter-attack prowess and crossing ability up against Mito's balanced and physical style. Both teams are not far apart in points, but Shimizu edges ahead with slightly better xPoints and a tighter defense, conceding fewer expected goals per match.

With a 46% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score, the scales tip delicately towards a low-scoring affair. Despite the tight margins, the sharper bettors might find value in backing Shimizu S-Pulse to win. While no guarantee, this presents an attractive play in a match where Shimizu's marginal superiority might just tip the balance.

Mito Hollyhock

Form DWDLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #18xP/match #12Points #13

Key players

Sho OmoriLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.19
Takumi MaseRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
Kotaro UchinoFxG 0.24 · xT -0.02

Shimizu S-Pulse

Form LDLWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #11xP/match #9Points #12

Key players

Kai MatsuzakiRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.27
Se-Hun OhRWxG 0.54 · xT 0.08
Koya KitagawaRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Mito Hollyhock – Shimizu S-Pulse

Predicted score matrix

Shimizu S-Pulse →

Mito Hollyhock →

0–08.4%

0–110.0%

0–26.7%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.2%

1–09.5%

1–113.1%

1–28.2%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.1%

2–17.9%

2–25.1%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.5%

3–13.2%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-010%
4.0-08%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,23–1,29

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.83

Over 2,546%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Ryo Germain to score15%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Kotaro Uchino to score21%
Yudai Shimamoto to be booked21%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Mito Hollyhock	X	2 · Shimizu S-Pulse
Betsafe	2.65	3.20	2.45
LeoVegas	2.65	3.25	2.50
Nordicbet	2.65	3.20	2.45

Odds updated 4 Oct, 11:36

Odds movement

1-5 %

36 %31 %

2.80 → 2.65

X-2 %

31 %26 %

3.30 → 3.25

2+6 %

41 %36 %

2.35 → 2.50

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.88 → 1.88

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 04/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mito Hollyhock

Shimizu S-Pulse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mito Hollyhock (11–11)

Shimizu S-Pulse (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mito Hollyhock

Shimizu S-Pulse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mito Hollyhock

Shimizu S-Pulse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mito Hollyhock	Shimizu S-Pulse
Points	9	10
xPoints	10	11.6
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	1.6	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.2

Playing style	Mito Hollyhock	Shimizu S-Pulse
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.28	0.38
xT per match	0.74	0.98
xTA per match	1.4	0.95
Won balls, offensive half	23	31
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.25
Entries into the box per match	9	12
Entries into the box against	16	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.66
Passes per match	349	271
Passes against per match	489	401
Switches of play per match	22.7	22.8
Long balls per match	29	32

Set pieces	Mito Hollyhock	Shimizu S-Pulse
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.08
Corners per match	4.4	5.2
Corners against per match	3.8	6.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.47

Other	Mito Hollyhock	Shimizu S-Pulse
Throw-in control	0.72	0.61

The goalkeepers	Konosuke Nishikawa (Mito Hollyhock)	Togo Umeda (Shimizu S-Pulse)
Saves	32	29
Save %	74%	81%
xG prevented	59%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mito Hollyhock

Fixtures, form & tips

Shimizu S-Pulse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-Pulse according to our model?

The model gives Shimizu S-Pulse a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mito Hollyhock 33%, draw 28%, Shimizu S-Pulse 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.