J1 LeagueAjinomoto Stadium, Tokyo19°9 km/h

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    Tokyo VerdyTokyo VerdyLow block & direct
    vs
    Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce HiroshimaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (76%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.52 (+7 %)

    Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · J1 League

    1 · Tokyo Verdy 10%X 15%76% Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 2

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    Analysis: Tokyo Verdy – Sanfrecce Hiroshima

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Sanfrecce Hiroshima have dominated the head-to-head meetings with Tokyo Verdy since 2023, winning all four encounters. While the sample size is small, it aligns perfectly with the current form and underlying metrics, painting a clear picture of superiority. Tokyo Verdy's struggles are further highlighted by their meager four points compared to Hiroshima's dominant 17. The visitors also boast an xG per match of 2.8, far surpassing the hosts' 0.9.

    Tokyo Verdy's defensive frailties are evident in their xGA of 1.5 per match, a stark contrast to Hiroshima's solid 0.58. This discrepancy is likely to be exploited by Hiroshima's high-pressing style, which is set to thrive against Verdy's low defensive setup. With expected goals leaning heavily toward the visitors at 2.59, the probability of an away clean sheet is high, especially considering Verdy's expected goals tally of just 0.74.

    The model suggests a 76% chance of a Hiroshima victory, with 0-2 as the most likely scoreline at 12%. The market's over 2.5 goals probability sits at 65%, reinforcing the notion of a match leaning towards a multi-goal outcome. Given Verdy's struggle to both score and defend adequately, it's hard to envision them posing a significant threat. The chances of both teams finding the net are under 50%, further bolstering the case for a one-sided affair.

    From a betting perspective, Hiroshima's dominance is clear, with a robust form and style matchup supporting expectations that Sanfrecce Hiroshima will assert their authority once more.

    Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
    Form LLDDL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #14xT #17xP/match #17Points #19
    Key players
    • Itsuki SomenoFxG 0.24 · xT 0.09
    • Hayato HiraoFxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
    • Shuhei MizoguchiLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
    Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
    Form DWLWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #3
    Key players
    • Shunki HigashiLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.42
    • Akito SuzukiFxG 0.65 · xT 0.07
    • Sébastien Romain Teddy HallerFxG 0.53 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Tokyo Verdy – Sanfrecce Hiroshima

    Predicted score matrix

    Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
    Tokyo Verdy →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.8%
    0–19.1%
    0–212.1%
    0–310.4%
    0–4+12.5%
    1
    1–02.4%
    1–17.1%
    1–28.9%
    1–37.7%
    1–4+9.2%
    2
    2–01.0%
    2–12.5%
    2–23.3%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+3.4%
    3
    3–00.2%
    3–10.6%
    3–20.8%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–00.1%
    4+–10.1%
    4+–20.2%
    4+–30.1%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.0-212%
    2. 2.0-310%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.1-38%
    Expected goals
    0,74–2,59
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    @2.18
    Over 2,565%
    @1.62EV+5%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win76%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    68%

    Fair odds

    1.48

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win76%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Akito Suzuki to score43%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Akito Suzuki to score43%
    • Soma Meshino to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 3.542% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • Over 3.542% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
    • Over 3.542% probability@2.50LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Tokyo VerdyX2 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Betsafe6.804.50
    EV+ 4%
    1.38
    LeoVegas6.754.50
    EV+ 6%
    1.40
    Nordicbet6.804.50
    EV+ 4%
    1.38

    Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36

    Odds movement

    10 %
    16 %11 %

    6.75 → 6.75

    X0 %
    23 %18 %

    4.50 → 4.50

    2+1 %
    69 %64 %

    1.38 → 1.40

    Over 2,50 %
    60 %55 %

    1.61 → 1.61

    LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 04/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Tokyo Verdy 0Draw 0Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4
    Goals: 2–10 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tokyo Verdy
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tokyo Verdy (4–12)
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima (20–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tokyo Verdy
    Shogo Sasaki: 177 passningar, xT 0.22SasakiRei Hirakawa: 173 passningar, xT 0.1HirakawaKaito Suzuki: 135 passningar, xT 0.5SuzukiNaoki Hayashi: 133 passningar, xT 0.14HayashiMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 123 passningar, xT 0.15OliveriaShuhei Mizoguchi: 111 passningar, xT 0.77MizoguchiYuta Arai: 105 passningar, xT 0.3AraiKosuke Saito: 99 passningar, xT 0.09SaitoSoma Meshino: 79 passningar, xT 0.02MeshinoYuya Fukuda: 70 passningar, xT 0.67FukudaItsuki Someno: 61 passningar, xT 0.09Someno
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Sho Sasaki: 407 passningar, xT 1.34SasakiNaoto Arai: 319 passningar, xT 1.39AraiShunki Higashi: 290 passningar, xT 1.82HigashiShuto Nakano: 265 passningar, xT 1.3NakanoHayato Araki: 263 passningar, xT 0.55ArakiHayao Kawabe: 201 passningar, xT 0.22KawabeYotaro Nakajima: 152 passningar, xT 0.15NakajimaTaishi Matsumoto: 129 passningar, xT 0.56MatsumotoAkito Suzuki: 105 passningar, xT 0.32SuzukiMutsuki Kato: 99 passningar, xT 0.37KatoIssei Ouchi: 80 passningar, xT 0.14Ouchi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tokyo Verdy
    Shogo Sasaki: 177 passningar, xT 0.22SasakiRei Hirakawa: 173 passningar, xT 0.1HirakawaKaito Suzuki: 135 passningar, xT 0.5SuzukiNaoki Hayashi: 133 passningar, xT 0.14HayashiMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 123 passningar, xT 0.15OliveriaShuhei Mizoguchi: 111 passningar, xT 0.77MizoguchiYuta Arai: 105 passningar, xT 0.3AraiKosuke Saito: 99 passningar, xT 0.09SaitoSoma Meshino: 79 passningar, xT 0.02MeshinoYuya Fukuda: 70 passningar, xT 0.67FukudaItsuki Someno: 61 passningar, xT 0.09Someno
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Sho Sasaki: 407 passningar, xT 1.34SasakiNaoto Arai: 319 passningar, xT 1.39AraiShunki Higashi: 290 passningar, xT 1.82HigashiShuto Nakano: 265 passningar, xT 1.3NakanoHayato Araki: 263 passningar, xT 0.55ArakiHayao Kawabe: 201 passningar, xT 0.22KawabeYotaro Nakajima: 152 passningar, xT 0.15NakajimaTaishi Matsumoto: 129 passningar, xT 0.56MatsumotoAkito Suzuki: 105 passningar, xT 0.32SuzukiMutsuki Kato: 99 passningar, xT 0.37KatoIssei Ouchi: 80 passningar, xT 0.14Ouchi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTokyo VerdySanfrecce Hiroshima
    Points417
    xPoints8.317.5
    xG per match0.92.8
    xGA per match1.50.58
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.61
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.09
    Playing styleTokyo VerdySanfrecce Hiroshima
    Build-up efficiency0.280.33
    Field tilt0.30.72
    xT per match0.781.9
    xTA per match1.40.68
    Won balls, offensive half2427
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.270.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.27
    Entries into the box per match1023
    Entries into the box against159
    Pass completion %0.710.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.79
    Passes per match298481
    Passes against per match432292
    Switches of play per match13.836.1
    Long balls per match2541
    Set piecesTokyo VerdySanfrecce Hiroshima
    xG from free kicks0.030.13
    Corners per match3.97.3
    Corners against per match5.62.2
    xG per corner0.030.05
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.56
    OtherTokyo VerdySanfrecce Hiroshima
    Throw-in control0.730.74
    The goalkeepersMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria (Tokyo Verdy)Issei Ouchi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
    Saves2515
    Save %68%79%
    xG prevented44%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Tokyo Verdy
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima according to our model?

    The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tokyo Verdy 10%, draw 15%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 76%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.