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    Hokkaido Consadole SapporoHokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    1–4
    Tochigi CityTochigi City
    The model's lean: 1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (50%)

    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo vs Tochigi City · J2 League

    1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 50%X 27%23% Tochigi City · 2

    Analysis: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Tochigi City

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    A 50% win probability paired with three consecutive losses creates a curious tension for Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo. Despite their recent form, the model leans towards Sapporo, suggesting underlying strength not reflected in their results. Tochigi City, meanwhile, come into this clash as underdogs with a 23% chance of victory. The expected goals tally of 1.65 to 0.96 further supports a narrative in favor of the hosts, hinting at a potential home win.

    Small sample-sized head-to-head data matters less here, as current form and the expected goals model take precedence. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 reflect a close contest but show the hosts with better scoring potential. Sapporo’s ability to find the net in their last eight matches adds weight to a prediction of them breaching Tochigi’s defense, at least once.

    The betting landscape reveals significant value on Sapporo at odds of 2.4 across multiple bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a calculated 19% edge, the numbers argue for a smart play on the home side. A 1-0 or 2-0 win seems likely, though under 2.5 goals remains a slight lean at 52%. Sapporo's scoring run and the model’s backing make this the sharper angle to follow.

    Hokkaido Consadole SapporoHokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Form WWLLL
    Key players
    • Haruto ShiraiFxG 0.39 · xT 0.12
    • Ryunosuke UmetsuCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
    • Vinicius Silveira PeixotoLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
    Tochigi CityTochigi City
    Form LWWL
    Key players
    • Atsushi YoshidaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.05
    • Ryo OkuiRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
    • Kazuki NishiyaLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.27
    Final score
    1 – 4
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 50% · Draw 27% · Tochigi City 23%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Hokkaido Consadole SapporoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,20fair 7,73-20 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Tochigi City FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,66fair 22,41-70 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Tochigi City

    Predicted score matrix

    Tochigi City →
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.7%
    0–16.7%
    0–23.4%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–011.8%
    1–112.0%
    1–25.6%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.0%
    2–19.6%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.5%
    3–15.3%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.3%
    4+–13.1%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,65–0,96
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @2.20EV+14%
    Over 2,548%
    @1.68

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo to win50%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.71

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo to win50%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Shingo Omori to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Shingo Omori to score27%
    • Masaru Kato to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo50% probability@2.80PinnacleEV+39%reference odds
    • 1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo50% probability@2.40BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
    • 1 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo50% probability@2.40BetssonEV+19%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Hokkaido Consadole SapporoX2 · Tochigi City
    Betsafe
    EV+ 19%
    2.40    		3.402.55
    Betsson
    EV+ 19%
    2.40    		3.402.55
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 19%
    2.40    		3.402.55
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 39%
    2.80    		3.582.40

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 04:32

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Tochigi City win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 2.62 to 2.40 (−8%).

    1+14 %
    42 %32 %

    2.45 → 2.80

    X0 %
    31 %21 %

    3.58 → 3.58

    2-8 %
    42 %32 %

    2.62 → 2.40

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo have lost 3 in a row.
    • Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Tochigi City
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (5–8)
    Tochigi City (9–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Ryunosuke Umetsu: 301 passningar, xT 0.33UmetsuShota Nishino: 241 passningar, xT 0.43NishinoTomoki Tagawa: 158 passningar, xT 0.14TagawaMin-Gyu Park: 152 passningar, xT 0.61ParkRyu Takao: 95 passningar, xT 0.12TakaoYuto Horigome: 90 passningar, xT 0.18HorigomeShuma Kido: 84 passningar, xT 0.12KidoMizuki Uchida: 74 passningar, xT 0UchidaTeerapat Pruetong: 67 passningar, xT 0.56PruetongHiroki Miyazawa: 61 passningar, xT 0.12MiyazawaKaito Konomi: 59 passningar, xT 0.1Konomi
    Tochigi City
    Hayato Teruyama: 148 passningar, xT 0.38TeruyamaMatej Jonjić: 145 passningar, xT 0.25JonjićJin-Hyeon Kim: 123 passningar, xT 0.21KimRyo Okui: 117 passningar, xT 0.65OkuiPedro Augusto Borges da Costa: 116 passningar, xT -0.06CostaKazuki Nishiya: 102 passningar, xT 0.88NishiyaYoshiki Sato: 89 passningar, xT 0.19SatoToshiki Mori: 85 passningar, xT 0.25MoriYuta Koike: 61 passningar, xT 0.18KoikeTokmac Chol Nguen: 45 passningar, xT 0.11NguenAtsushi Yoshida: 43 passningar, xT 0.06Yoshida
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Ryunosuke Umetsu: 301 passningar, xT 0.33UmetsuShota Nishino: 241 passningar, xT 0.43NishinoTomoki Tagawa: 158 passningar, xT 0.14TagawaMin-Gyu Park: 152 passningar, xT 0.61ParkRyu Takao: 95 passningar, xT 0.12TakaoYuto Horigome: 90 passningar, xT 0.18HorigomeShuma Kido: 84 passningar, xT 0.12KidoMizuki Uchida: 74 passningar, xT 0UchidaTeerapat Pruetong: 67 passningar, xT 0.56PruetongHiroki Miyazawa: 61 passningar, xT 0.12MiyazawaKaito Konomi: 59 passningar, xT 0.1Konomi
    Tochigi City
    Hayato Teruyama: 148 passningar, xT 0.38TeruyamaMatej Jonjić: 145 passningar, xT 0.25JonjićJin-Hyeon Kim: 123 passningar, xT 0.21KimRyo Okui: 117 passningar, xT 0.65OkuiPedro Augusto Borges da Costa: 116 passningar, xT -0.06CostaKazuki Nishiya: 102 passningar, xT 0.88NishiyaYoshiki Sato: 89 passningar, xT 0.19SatoToshiki Mori: 85 passningar, xT 0.25MoriYuta Koike: 61 passningar, xT 0.18KoikeTokmac Chol Nguen: 45 passningar, xT 0.11NguenAtsushi Yoshida: 43 passningar, xT 0.06Yoshida
    The goalkeepersTomoki Tagawa (Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo)Jin-Hyeon Kim (Tochigi City)
    Saves910
    Save %53%63%
    xG prevented33%30%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tochigi City
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo vs Tochigi City according to our model?

    The model gives Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 50%, draw 27%, Tochigi City 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.